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Labour to win record number of MPs as Tories and Greens get zero in 90% of London - shock poll

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Cecil, N. (2026, October 19). Labour to win record number of MPs as Tories and Greens get zero in 90% of London - shock poll. Evening Standard. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/burnham-labour-mps-win-london-poll-conservatives-polanski-green-farage-reform-b1301239.html

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Quick Summary

A new survey by Electoral Calculus/Find Out Now predicts Labour will win a record 59 or 60 seats out of 75 in London, driven by increased support under Andy Burnham's leadership. The analysis suggests the Conservatives may lose two seats, including possibly Chris Philp’s seat in Croydon South, and fail to regain Inner London constituencies. Additionally, there would be no Conservative or Green MPs in Inner London or 90% of London's constituencies according to this poll.

Written by AI on 2026-10-19, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

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Story summary

A shock poll by Electoral Calculus/Find Out Now predicts Labour will win a record number of seats in the upcoming London elections, securing between 59 and 60 out of 75 available seats. The survey shows Labour’s support increasing to 34%, up nine percentage points since July, while the Conservatives' support has dropped to 16%. This would result in no Conservative or Green MPs in Inner London or 90% of constituencies across the city. Key among these changes is a close race for Chris Philp, Shadow Home Secretary and candidate for Croydon South, where Labour could take his seat by a narrow margin of 30% to 28%. The poll's findings are based on MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) research.

Written for “Labour Wins Record MPs In London Poll” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

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Claims extracted

sentences that state something as happening or true

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20%

3 of 15 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")

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Leans left

of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate

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64/100

Evening Standard's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.

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Politics

Same framing elsewhere

articles that frame the event the way this one does

Who wrote this

Nicholas Cecil

99 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction

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Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

All 99 articles by Nicholas Cecil →

Narrative

Claims (15 extracted, 3 hedged)

The survey by Electoral Calculus/Find Out Now showed Labour getting a record 59 or 60 seats out of 75 in the capital after a bounce in support under Andy Burnham’s premiership turned into a more sustained surge. asserted

bounce → find → surge

The Conservatives may lose two, including possibly Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp in Croydon South, and fail to regain a series of seats in Inner London, according to the new analysis which estimated the impact of tactical voting. uncertain

which → lose → voting

The Liberal Democrats would hold six constituencies in south west London. asserted

Democrats → hold → London

It could also oust Mr Philp in Croydon South, but by 30% to 28% so this outcome is also very close to call. uncertain

outcome → oust → %

MRP research (multi-level regression and post-stratification) is based on large-scale polling of sections of society and extrapolating to get constituency level results. asserted

research → base → results

It does not take into account the prominence or popularity of individual candidates. asserted

It → take → candidates

The results, though, would mean there would be no Conservative or Green MP in Inner London or 90% of constituencies in the capital. asserted

results → mean → capital

Read More Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, told The Standard: “In political terms, Andy Burnham has eaten Zack Polankski's muesli, as underlined by the recent Labour win in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.” asserted

Burnham → read → election

“He is taking votes from the Liberal Democrats and Greens to re-establish Labour as the dominant political force in London,” he said. asserted

he → take → London

“This contrasts with the dire position of the party earlier in the year under Sir Keir Starmer.” asserted

This → contrast → Starmer

The poll put Labour on 34% in London, up nine percentage points since July, the Greens down three to 18%, Tories down two to 16%, Reform unchanged on 13%, Lib Dems down two to 9%, Restore up one to 7%, and independents/minor parties down two to 3%. asserted

Reform → put → %

“The Conservatives may even lose seats compared with their poor showing at the last general election." uncertain

Conservatives → lose → election

Nationally, the survey put Labour on 353, a Commons majority of 56, Conservatives 90, Reform 81, Lib Dems 70, SNP 28, Greens four and Restore one. asserted

Restore → put → 56

Kevin Craig, chief executive of PR firm PLMR which commissioned the poll, said: “Andy Burnham’s leadership is resonating with voters. “ asserted

leadership → commission → voters

He speaks in plain English and explains what the Government is doing simply and directly.” asserted

Government → speak → what

Labour to win record number of MPs as Tories and Greens get zero in 90% of London - shock poll

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Claims (15 extracted, 3 hedged)