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Bookies brace for Everest day wipeout after key scratching

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Cite

Kerry, C. (2026, October 16). Bookies brace for Everest day wipeout after key scratching. The Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/bookies-brace-for-everest-day-wipeout-after-key-scratching-20261016-p6166q.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Sydney Morning Herald · collected 2026-10-16 · by Craig Kerry

Quick Summary

TAB senior trader Tim Ryan discusses the financial risks bookmakers face due to high-favorite horses Ka Ying Rising and Autumn Glow in upcoming races. With Ka Ying Rising favored at $1.50 for the Everest race and Autumn Glow at $1.28 for the King Charles III Stakes, Ryan predicts a multimillion-dollar loss if both win. The article details specific bets placed on these favorites and discusses adjustments to betting odds based on recent events and track conditions.
Written by AI on 2026-10-16, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

On October 17, 2026, Tempted, a four-year-old mare trained by Ciaron Maher and owned by Godolphin Australia, upset the defending champion Ka Ying Rising to win the $20 million Everest at Randwick. Despite starting as a $6.50 underdog due to track conditions drying from heavy 8 to soft 5, Tempted rode boldly with jockey Chad Schofield and finished just half a neck ahead of Ka Ying Rising in the 1200m race. This victory ended Ka Ying Rising's impressive winning streak at 21 races. The Hong Kong superstar had been favored at $1.35, but was three-wide from gate 11, while Tempted started from gate one and carried an extra 5.5 kilograms compared to last year’s race.

Written for “The Everest Race 2026” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 4 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 The Everest Race 2026
Sports · 5 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 13% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 0 of 28 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles describe different aspects of horse racing events on Everest day but do not report on the same specific incident.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 2 of 43 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of horse racing events, with Article A focusing on preparations and prospects for Tempted and Jimmysstar in the Everest race, while Article B discusses betting implications after a key scratching.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 2 of 65 claims Outlet record 61/100
“Article A describes an early race in New Zealand where Ka Ying Rising was initially raced, while Article B discusses upcoming races and betting for the Everest at Randwick, focusing on current events.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 1 of 43 claims Outlet record 61/100
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 8 of 66 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss related racing events and odds for Ka Ying Rising but describe different aspects and outcomes.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
23
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
13%
3 of 23 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
61/100
The Sydney Morning Herald's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
5
Sports
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-16 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Sydney Morning Herald · 5874 article(s) · 15 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 15 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Craig Kerry
43 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 A draw in 18, which will come into 15 with emergencies out, will make it tougher for Bayliss to give Fully Lit ($10 TAB) a similar ride in a race stacked with speed, but he remained hopeful.
🔮 The son of Written Tycoon, now destined for a career at stud with a group 1 on his resume, will go for a spell and likely return in the Apollo Stakes (1400m) at Randwick in February. “He was only ever going to have four runs, and it was a tough run,” Ryan said.
🔮 The cracking pace set and the barrier helped him clock 1:14.05 on Saturday, bettering Trapeze Artist’s 2019 record of 1:14.19. Godolphin racing and bloodstock manager Jason Walsh said the group 1 CF Orr (1400m) at Sandown on November 14 could be next for Pericles. “We were talking about the CF Orr Stakes from here, but a little bit might depend on whether Beiwacht is turning up there as well, but that’s probably the next option,” Walsh said.
🔮 Michael, John and Wayne Hawkes-trained Federalist was also scratched from the Golden Eagle on Wednesday and will spell, cutting the field to 16. Star mare Sheza Alibi was $1.90 after drawing ideally in six for owner Fred Noffke and Victorian trainers Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman.
🔮 “To look at her, you wouldn’t give much for her, but geez, she seems to have everything.
🔮 He took it on and couldn’t put it together, I suppose, so they asked me to train it.
🔮 “I always had an air of confidence she would run her best race today,” Maher said.
🔮 Why this seven-year-old, $34 shot might just be poised to spring an almighty Everest upset By
🔮 TAB senior trader Tim Ryan says Everest day favourites Ka Ying Rising and Autumn Glow are set to deliver a multimillion dollar “wipeout” on Saturday, after the blow of losing Pride Of Jenni from the King Charles III Stakes.
🔮 The six-year-old, expected to take his winning streak to 22 on Saturday and prizemoney past $37 million, has raced just once on rain-affected going, and won.
2026-10-15 · assertive framing · Runner-by-runner guide to the 2026 Everest
Also by Craig Kerry
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 43 articles by Craig Kerry →

Topics

Autumn Glow Everest Ka Ying Rising Ninja TAB

Subjects

Ka Ying Rising PERSON · 3× Ryan PERSON · 3× Autumn Glow PERSON · 2× Ninja ORG · 2× TAB ORG · 2× Ceolwulf PERSON · 1× Hong Kong GPE · 1× Randwick GPE · 1× Spicy Martini PERSON · 1× Tim Ryan PERSON · 1×

Narrative

Hong Kong superstar Ka Ying Rising remained a $1.50 favourite to defend his title in the $20 million Everest at Randwick, while Autumn Glow firmed into $1.28 for the five-horse $5 million King Charles after the loss of Pride Of Jenni due to the leg infection. “I am so flat about that, almost devastated,” Ryan said.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-16
🔮 TAB senior trader Tim Ryan says Everest day favourites Ka Ying Rising and Autumn Glow are set to deliver a multimillion dollar “wipeout” on Saturday, after the blow of losing Pride Of Jenni from the King Charles III Stakes.
2026-10-16 · The Sydney Morning Herald
Bookies brace for Everest day wipeout after key scratching · assertive framing

Claims (23 extracted, 3 hedged)

TAB senior trader Tim Ryan says Everest day favourites Ka Ying Rising and Autumn Glow are set to deliver a multimillion dollar “wipeout” on Saturday, after the blow of losing Pride Of Jenni from the King Charles III Stakes. asserted
Rising → say → Stakes
However, the bookmaker is preparing to “lean into” the most backed runners on the program. asserted
bookmaker → prepare → program
Hong Kong superstar Ka Ying Rising remained a $1.50 favourite to defend his title in the $20 million Everest at Randwick, while Autumn Glow firmed into $1.28 for the five-horse $5 million King Charles after the loss of Pride Of Jenni due to the leg infection. “I am so flat about that, almost devastated,” Ryan said. asserted
Ryan → remain → that
“I thought she was a risk, Autumn Glow, with a Pride Of Jenni in the race, a strong-run mile on a testing track. asserted
she → think → track
It would play into Ceolwulf’s hands. asserted
It → play → hands
Now, it’s probably going to be a jog-trot. asserted
it → go → ?
“The Ka Ying Rising into Autumn Glow multi, we are holding nearly a million on that already and that’s going to grow tomorrow, and I’m not confident about getting either beat now. asserted
either → hold → that
“Ka Ying Rising is best backed, Autumn Glow is second best, then it’s daylight third.” asserted
it → back → ?
Asked what the loss would be if both won, Ryan said: “Wipeout.” asserted
Ryan → ask → Wipeout
“And I believe we are going to lean into it tomorrow as well, with some generosity,” he said. “It might cost us four or five million.” uncertain
It → believe → four
Ka Ying Rising opened at $2.10 for the Everest after winning the race last year by a length and a quarter. asserted
Rising → open → length
He was as low as $1.30 before easing in price after a trial loss to Everest rival Ninja, and Randwick copping close to 100mm of rain this past week. asserted
Randwick → ease → rain
“Overall we are holding about $3.25 million on him, $2.5 million in multis and $750,000 straight out,” Ryan said. asserted
Ryan → hold → multis
“Futures-wise, he was the most wagered on in an Everest, surpassing what we held on him last year. asserted
we → wager → him
And I imagine he will eclipse what we held on final field-wise last year tomorrow. asserted
we → imagine → what
“Early in the week, I thought it was $1.40 on a soft 6, $1.50 on a soft 7 and $1.60 on a heavy 8. asserted
it → think → 8
“After the final field on Tuesday night, there was nothing for him, but at $1.50 on Thursday, he was quite popular. asserted
he → be → Thursday
That has dried up a bit now. asserted
That → dry → ?
“Thursday, he was holding about 65 per cent, now he’s down to 50 per cent of the hold, so that’s telling me it might be time to think about $1.55. uncertain
it → hold → 1.55
“I don’t really want to lay him. asserted
I → want → him
He’s just so much better than them, he’s got the great racing style and he could be a wet tracker. uncertain
he → ’ → style
It’s completely unknown, but we know wet tracks can be a class killer.” asserted
tracks → ’ → ?
He said Stradbroke heavy track winner Spicy Martini ($31) was the TAB’s biggest loser in final field betting at $500,000. asserted
Martini → say → 500,000
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