Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
asserted
that → welcome → House
In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur explains why the results of the midterms will have reverberations long after President Donald Trump is out of office.
asserted
Trump → explain → office
Plus, we look at a long-running GOP streak that is at risk next month.
asserted
that → look → risk
How the midterms will shape 2028 and beyond
Analysis by Sahil Kapur
asserted
midterms → shape → Kapur
The winners of Congress in the 2026 midterms will wield power to shape the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term, from his legislative agenda to his administrative and judicial appointees.
asserted
winners → wield → appointees
But the outcome of next month’s election will reverberate well beyond the Trump presidency, carrying enormous consequences for his successor in the White House.
asserted
outcome → reverberate → House
Beyond which party controls the two chambers, the margins will also matter.
asserted
margins → control → chambers
The winners will be elected to six-year terms, meaning they’ll serve through January 2033, or the end of the next president’s first term.
asserted
they → elect → term
If Democrats manage to win in GOP-leaning states like Texas, Alaska and Iowa — as polls indicate they might — the impact would endure well beyond Trump.
uncertain
impact → manage → Trump
And if Republicans fail to hold even redder states like Kansas or Nebraska, that would significantly narrow their path to recapturing the Senate in 2028, even if they have a strong year.
asserted
they → fail → year
The 2028 Senate map will require Democrats to defend seats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
asserted
map → require → Arizona
Republicans failed to capture those seats in a favorable midterm environment in 2022, so it’ll be even more challenging to win them in a presidential cycle while they control the White House.
asserted
they → fail → House
In addition, the GOP will have to defend seats in purple states like North Carolina and Wisconsin that year.
asserted
GOP → have → Carolina
(This year’s Ohio Senate race is an exception because it’s a special election for a two-year term, so the seat will come before voters again in 2028.)
Conversely, if Republicans are able to hold onto red states that Trump won three times, and protect the seat of Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, or pull off an upset in a purple state like Michigan, where former Rep. Mike Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, they could put Democrats in a jam for 2028.
uncertain
they → ’ → 2028
In the modern era, it’s almost unheard of for a new president to enter office without his party controlling both the White House and Senate.
asserted
party → ’ → House
The last president to move into the Oval Office under divided government was George H.W. Bush in 1989.
asserted
president → move → 1989
In the modern era of polarization — with the two parties far apart on priorities, and the Senate’s power to block Cabinet appointees — it could stymie any new president and put an early dagger in most of his or her legislative agenda.
uncertain
it → block → agenda
It could also hinder their ability to appoint Supreme Court justices.
uncertain
It → hinder → justices
In the House, where all 435 members are elected to two-year terms, the consequences next month are more immediate.
asserted
consequences → elect → terms
Still, recent history suggests the 2026 midterms carry important consequences for 2028 and beyond.
uncertain
midterms → suggest → 2028
Opposition parties tend to do better in the House in midterm years than the ensuing presidential election.
asserted
parties → tend → election
In 2022, Republicans captured the House and then lost a few seats in the 2024 election.
asserted
Republicans → capture → election
In 2018, Democrats captured the House and then lost seats in 2020.
asserted
Democrats → capture → 2020
In 2010 and 2014, Republicans won the House majority only to lose seats in the subsequent presidential elections of 2012 and 2016.
asserted
Republicans → win → 2012
In other words, if Democrats fail to capture the House majority or win it narrowly in 2026, history tells us their power would be in danger two years later.
asserted
power → fail → danger
But if they run up the score and flip Republican-held seats, it would give them a cushion in 2028.
asserted
it → run → 2028
The last time a party out of power gained House seats in both a midterm and the subsequent presidential election was the Democrats in 2006 and 2008, following one wave cycle with one that took place under the unusual circumstances of a once-in-a-century financial crash.
asserted
that → gain → crash
The bottom line: Every seat that Republicans successfully defend in the Senate and the House — even if they lose control of both chambers — could pay off in two years’ time.
uncertain
they → defend → time
🗳️Related read: A blue-collar bellwether weighs ousting longtime GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, by Bridget Bowman
Trump and Republicans fight to protect the midterms’ most surprising battleground
By Brennan Leach, Stephanie Gosk and Jacob Cavaiani
asserted
Trump → weigh → Leach
No state has shut out one party in U.S. Senate races for as long as Kansas.
asserted
state → shut → Kansas
But with days to go in the 2026 midterm elections, President Donald Trump is headlining a rally near Wichita today in a bid to head off the biggest threat in years to the GOP’s local winning streak.
asserted
Trump → go → streak
Megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton is hoping to make history as the first Democrat elected to the Senate in ruby-red Kansas in nearly a century.
asserted
Hamilton → hop → century
And Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is fighting for his political life in a state he won by over 11 points in 2020, with polls showing a toss up race between Hamilton and the incumbent.
asserted
polls → fight → Hamilton
Early voting is already underway as Trump heads to the state, which he has carried by at least 14 points three times.
asserted
he → head → points
But Hamilton has painted Marshall as a “yes man” for the president, in a race that has been defined by the unpopularity of some of Trump’s actions, from high diesel prices hurting farmers to Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids throughout the state.
asserted
prices → paint → state
Kansas is one of several reliably red states from recent elections that Democrats have put in play this year as they try to net four seats to take control of the Senate.
asserted
they → put → Senate
Wint Winter Jr., a former GOP state senator who is backing Hamilton but remains a registered Republican, told NBC News it wouldn’t surprise him “at all” if Hamilton “won and won big.”
asserted
Hamilton → back → him
“He epitomizes that kind of thinking — how can we do things different?” Winter said.
asserted
Winter → epitomize → things
Survey says:
asserted
Survey → say → ?
According to a new NBC News Decision Desk poll powered by SurveyMonkey, 71% of adults think the country is on the “wrong track” — the highest share yet in Trump’s second term.
uncertain
country → accord → term
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
