John Healey, the chancellor, is delivering his first budget a week tomorrow, and this morning there are two news developments that will help to frame the way it is received.
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it → deliver → way
The most important is on the front page of the Times, where Steven Swinford has a story firming up that has already been hinted that: that Healey has decided not to raise capital gains tax in the budget.
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Healey → have → budget
This is significant because a capital gains tax hike was for a while seen as the government’s preferred money-raising ploy, not least because several senior figures in the cabinet were lobbying for one earlier this year.
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figures → see → one
But now it is off the table, according to Swinford.
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it → accord → Swinford
He says:
Senior allies of Andy Burnham, including several cabinet ministers, have been pressing for a rise in capital gains tax on the sale of second homes, shares and other assets to help repair the public finances.
However, the chancellor has ruled this out after warnings that it could ultimately cost the government money if wealthy individuals left the UK or deferred selling assets …
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individuals → say → assets
It means that the biggest “revenue raiser” in the budget will be a tax raid on banks, which will be used to help fund a targeted and temporary package of support on the cost of living.
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which → mean → living
Healey will also reduce the government’s fiscal headroom — a buffer against future events — from £23bn to around £15bn.
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Healey → reduce → 15bn
There is a Whitehall myth about how the Treasury never gives out detail about what’s coming in the budget before it is actually announced.
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it → be → budget
In fact, on certain issues, the Treasury regularly ensures that the media gets an accurate picture of what is coming in a budget to minimise the risk of the markets getting an unwelcome surprise.
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markets → ensure → surprise
This is done not through on-the-record statements, but via murky background nods, winks and hints.
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This → do → nods
That has been happening overnight, with journalists being assured that the Times’ story is accurate.
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story → happen → ?
The second intervention is coming from Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader.
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intervention → come → Badenoch
In a speech this morning, she will claim that Healey’s budget will be even worse than the two delivered by Rachel Reeves, which raised taxes by £40bn and £26bn respectively.
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which → claim → 40bn
That is because Healey is not cutting spending, Badenoch will say.
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Badenoch → cut → spending
She will argue:
John Healey is not Rachel Reeves.
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Healey → argue → ?
Many people see that as an improvement.
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people → see → improvement
However, I’m worried that next week John Healey will deliver a budget that does more damage to our country than either of Rachel Reeves’ budgets did.
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either → ’m → budgets
We are being told that next week’s budget is going to be “nothing to see here”.
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budget → tell → ?
That is code in Whitehall for a budget that tries to do as little as possible … in the hope that no one notices.
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one → try → hope
Picture the chancellor burying his head in the sand and hoping to deliver a budget so inconsequential that it “does no harm” - as some Labour MPs have been asking.
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MPs → picture → harm
But the problem is that Britain cannot afford to do as little as possible.
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Britain → afford → little
Problems have caught up with us that we can no longer afford to run away from.
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we → catch → that
First and foremost, that means living within our means.
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that → mean → means
The Tories have announced plans to cut government spending by £70bn a year.
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Tories → announce → 70bn
Badenoch thinks Healey should follow suit.
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Healey → think → suit
Andy Burnham chairs cabinet.
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Burnham → chair → cabinet
Kemi Badenoch gives a speech and holds a press conference.
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Badenoch → give → conference
Yvette Cooper, the health secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
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Cooper → take → Commons
Heather Hallett publishes the latest report from the Covid inquiry, covering care homes.
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Hallett → publish → homes
Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
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Street → hold → briefing
After 12.30pm: MPs resume their debate on the Northern Ireland Troubles bill.
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MPs → resume → bill
Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, speaks at a rally in Plymouth.
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Farage → speak → Plymouth
Jonathan Reynolds, the business secretary, gives evidence to the Commons business committee.
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Reynolds → give → committee
I’m afraid we are no longer able to have comments open below the line every day on this blog.
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comments → ’m → blog
If you want to contact me, please email politics.live@theguardian.com.
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you → want → politics.live@theguardian.com
You can use this email to flag up corrections, comments for publication, questions or complaints.
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You → use → publication
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