Israel’s elections: Four possible scenarios
AI generated
Jerusalem – Israel goes to the polls on Oct 27 with results forecast to be close, meaning that the next government will be determined by whoever can cobble together a coalition in a fragmented political landscape.
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whoever → generate → landscape
Israel votes through proportional representation based on the nationwide vote and it is highly unlikely that any single party would come even close to the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Parliament, or Knesset.
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party → vote → Parliament
Immediately after the election, the parties will begin negotiations to try to reach the 61-seat threshold.
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parties → begin → threshold
After the official announcement of the results, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party representatives and name a candidate who has the chance to form a government – not necessarily the party with the most seats, but the one deemed best positioned to secure enough seats in Parliament.
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who → consult → Parliament
The negotiations can be arduous and lengthy, with parties insisting on parochial interests, and can produce unstable governments.
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parties → insist → governments
Following the previous election in November 2022, it took Benjamin Netanyahu 58 days to form his government.
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it → follow → government
Polls show that Netanyahu’s right-wing and far-right coalition and the opposition bloc, whose most prominent figure is former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, are neck and neck, with approximately 50 to 52 seats each.
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figure → show → seats
The two sides have been nearly even in polls for weeks, foreshadowing a mathematical puzzle that both sides will have to solve to find the 10 or so seats needed for a coalition.
Israeli political history is full of twists and turns, with defections and other unexpected shifts in alliances.
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history → foreshadow → alliances
Israel also has two new right-wing parties that are seen as scratching the threshold of entering Parliament, where they could throw their decisive support to one of the two blocs.
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they → have → blocs
If no bloc manages to secure 61 seats, a candidate could attempt to govern without a majority but rather through support on an ad hoc basis by other lawmakers.
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candidate → manage → lawmakers
In this scenario, lawmakers from Israel’s Arab minority – who make up 20% of the population and generally identify as Palestinians – could play a critical role.
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who → make → role
Polls show that two Arab-Israeli lists, the Joint List and Raam, could win 12 to 14 seats in total.
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lists → show → total
Raam, led by Mansour Abbas, a kingmaker in the past, has stated its willingness to work with Eisenkot’s bloc, and the Joint List has offered to provide a “safety net” for any coalition that ousts Netanyahu from power.
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that → lead → power
But the leading figures in the opposition bloc are reluctant to publicly acknowledge such a possibility, due to the hostility of a large segment of the Jewish electorate towards any form of alliance with Israeli Arabs.
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figures → lead → Arabs
This has not prevented Netanyahu from focusing his campaign on the possibility of Eisenkot working with Arab parties, campaigning on the slogan, “Either the right wing or Palestine.”
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Eisenkot → prevent → slogan
3. National unity government
Considering Israel’s extreme polarisation, a national unity government would appear fanciful, but it could theoretically create a less extreme government.
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it → consider → government
Israeli commentators have often mused on the possibility of a national unity government in which Netanyahu would jettison his provocative far-right allies as well as ultra-Orthodox parties and team up with Eisenkot, who shares Netanyahu’s views on many security issues.
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who → muse → issues
The grand coalition would also exclude Arab parties.
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coalition → exclude → parties
A poll published on Oct 16 found that 55% of Israelis would prefer a national unity government over new elections, if the vote did not produce a clear majority.
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vote → publish → majority
This scenario has a recent precedent.
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scenario → have → precedent
In 2020, Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, like Eisenkot a retired general appealing to the centre, reached a power-sharing agreement after three elections in less than a year, which stipulated a rotation of the prime ministership.
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which → retire → ministership
But the partnership fell apart after a year, triggering a new election.
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partnership → fall → election
According to media reports, Herzog is working behind the scenes to bring Netanyahu and Eisenkot together to repeat the experiment should a deadlock occur after Oct 27.
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deadlock → accord → Oct
However, the scenario would face strong opposition from both sides, particularly from the opposition bloc, which is treating the election as a referendum against Netanyahu and has questioned his character.
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which → face → character
4. Deadlock and new elections
If no candidate manages to form a government, Israel will have to return to the polls.
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Israel → manage → polls
The country held four elections between April 2019 and March 2021 due to the inability of politicians to forge a lasting coalition.
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country → hold → coalition
The candidate designated by the president will, in principle, have 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension, although there are other procedural ways to prevent an immediate calling of new elections.
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candidate → designate → elections
The Aporia
