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Analysts warn of 'uncontrolled demand destruction' as oil forecast to hit record high

Read the original at ABC News (AU) ↗
Cite

Taylor, D. (2026, September 15). Analysts warn of 'uncontrolled demand destruction' as oil forecast to hit record high. ABC News (AU). https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-15/oil-could-surge-to-150-dollars-middle-east-war-intensifies/107155830

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

ABC News (AU) · collected 2026-09-15 · by David Taylor

Quick Summary

Oil prices have surged due to increased tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude reaching above $107 per barrel and US WTI crude jumping to $103 per barrel. The escalation includes missile and drone attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabian infrastructure, which has disrupted a crucial oil pipeline and pushed prices higher. This development could lead to further increases in global fuel costs for consumers unless the conflict de-escalates soon.
Written by AI on 2026-09-15, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

On September 7, 2026, an Iranian container ship was attacked near Hengam Island in the Strait of Hormuz by what state media called an “unidentified projectile,” leaving one person dead and four crew members wounded. This incident occurred as Iran prepared to meet with Gulf states in Oman to discuss shipping traffic safety in the Strait of Hormuz.

On September 12, a critical oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia, which had been moving 4-5% of global oil supplies since late February due to blockades at the Strait of Hormuz, was shut down after being struck by drones launched from Iraq. The attack caused injuries and forced Saudi Arabia to temporarily close the East-West pipeline.

In response to the drone attacks on September 12, Iraq's government confirmed the attacks originated from its territory but an umbrella group of Iran-backed militias in Iraq denied involvement. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaiyadi dismissed a military commander as part of an investigation into the incident.

On September 18, oil company Saudi Aramco informed at least two European refining customers that they would receive no crude oil for October due to damage sustained during the drone attack on its pipeline.

These events have significantly impacted global oil markets and international relations, with Iran continuing to impede commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis advancing towards strategic locations in Yemen. The United States is grappling with how to address these challenges amidst ongoing conflicts and economic pressures. China's role in fueling tensions further complicates efforts to stabilize the region, leading to discussions between U.S. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping about potential resolutions. Trump aims to prioritize addressing Iran's influence over other trade issues during his meeting with Xi.

Written for “Houthis Attack Saudi Oil Facilities” on 2026-11-01, grounded in this article and the 39 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Houthis Attack Saudi Oil Facilities
Politics · 40 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 7% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Iraq scrambles to address fallout from alleged militia attack on Saudi oil pipeline Different event
CBC News
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 4 of 33 claims Outlet record 60/100
“Article A reports on an alleged militia attack on a Saudi oil pipeline, while Article B discusses broader regional tensions and missile strikes against a military base in Saudi Arabia.”
PM Shehbaz announces 'relief scheme' for bikes, autos, 800cc vehicles amid rising oil prices Different event
Dawn
Hedges 0 of 23 claims Outlet record 72/100
“Article A describes PM Shehbaz Sharif announcing a relief scheme, while Article B discusses analysts' warnings about rising oil prices due to conflicts and attacks in Saudi Arabia.”
Houthis strike Saudi targets anew as talks over Strait of Hormuz stall Same event
The Straits Times
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 5 of 30 claims Outlet record 66/100
Oil nears $100 a barrel after attacks by Yemen's Houthis Same event
Semafor
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 0 of 4 claims Outlet record 60/100
Thick smoke seen near Riyadh airport after air-raid alerts in Saudi capital Different event
The Guardian
Hedges 2 of 17 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles describe different incidents occurring at distinct locations and times: one near Khamis Mushait involving missiles and drones, the other in Riyadh with air-raid alerts and a burning fuel tank.”
An eye on Balochistan border Different event
Dawn
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 10 of 40 claims Outlet record 72/100
“The articles describe different incidents related to regional tensions but do not focus on the same specific event or time.”
US military claims Strait of Hormuz remains open amid ongoing blockade Different event
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 2 of 16 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles describe different aspects of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, with Article A focusing on attacks by Yemen's Houthis and their impact on oil supply, while Article B discusses the US military's efforts to keep the strait open for commercial shipping.”
Renewed U.S.-Iran exchanges send oil price back over $100 US for first time in several weeks Different event
CBC News
Hedges 3 of 32 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles describe different incidents and timeframes related to the broader conflict, but do not refer to the exact same specific occurrence.”
Houthis threaten more Saudi strikes as UN warns of humanitarian crisis in Yemen Different event
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 2 of 35 claims Outlet record 66/100
“While both articles discuss Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the impact on oil supplies, they describe different aspects of the conflict over two days.”
Saudi Arabia issues first air raid alerts for Riyadh since Houthis escalated attacks Different event
BBC News
Hedges 1 of 17 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles describe different specific events occurring at different times and locations: one about attacks on Khamis Mushait and a pipeline, and another about air raid alerts in Riyadh.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
28
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
7%
2 of 28 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
68/100
ABC News (AU)'s corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
40
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-15 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

ABC News (AU) · 4533 article(s) · 10 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 10 correction(s)
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Who wrote this

David Taylor
10 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 "The conflict in the Middle East has broadened and global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts," it wrote.
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🔮 The big difference is that firms will look to finance investments for future growth.
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🔮 In short: Suncorp mortgage customers have been warned their repayments could increase by upwards of $1,000 a month when transferred to ANZ.
2026-10-18 · assertive framing · Suncorp borrower's mortgage payments could spike amid transfer to ANZ
🔮 XTB research director Kathleen Brooks agreed. "Its bonds have sold off sharply … this is a sign that investors might be going off the AI investment narrative, which has included massive debt issuance to fund AI ambitions."
2026-10-16 · assertive framing · 'Investors freaking out' about Wall Street big tech as warning bell rings
🔮 The bookbuild to gather investors has now closed and there are reports its share offering will be re-priced downwards.
2026-10-08 · assertive framing · Major share market float of Firmus in trouble as interest wanes
🔮 What would it take to put the global economy into a tailspin?
2026-10-05 · assertive framing · Bank of America has a warning for Australia's $4.5 trillion superannuation sector
🔮 "You assume that at some point all the powers of the United States will step in to make sure nothing precipitous happens, but it is obviously uncomfortable for equity investors and endorses
2026-09-26 · assertive framing · Bond market pointing to rising inflation, interest rate and recession risk
🔮 Ms Constant will speak today at a gathering in Sydney hosted by the Commercial and Asset Finance Brokers Association.
2026-09-21 · assertive framing · 'Clock is ticking' as ASIC warns private credit sector investors could bail
🔮 He wrote that: "If inventory depletion is reached, we estimate that Brent oil futures may need to rise to [around] $US150 per barrel to force uncontrolled demand destruction (i.e. where high prices force lower demand) for emerging Asian economies."
2026-09-15 · assertive framing · Analysts warn of 'uncontrolled demand destruction' as oil forecast to hit record high
🔮 "The government does not yet have a complete picture of the company’s financial position," the spokesman said. "Given the circumstances, we are not willing to put taxpayers' money on the line to guarantee profits for private creditors." Several private credit firms have lent money to the developer, some of which have now limited investor redemptions.
2026-08-28 · assertive framing · Bathla workers stood down as company struggles to stay afloat
Also by David Taylor
Economist delivers 'worst-case scenario' on interest rates as inflation fails to cool
2026-10-29 · ABC News (AU)
This could be the biggest investment bet in the history of global capitalism
2026-10-27 · ABC News (AU)
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2026-10-18 · ABC News (AU)
'Investors freaking out' about Wall Street big tech as warning bell rings
2026-10-16 · ABC News (AU)
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 10 articles by David Taylor →

Topics

Houthis NRMA Saudi Arabia Saudis Yemen

Subjects

Houthis NORP · 5× Saudi Arabia GPE · 4× NRMA ORG · 3× Saudi NORP · 2× Saudis NORP · 2× Yemen GPE · 2× British NORP · 1× Iran GPE · 1× Khamis Mushait GPE · 1× UKMTO ORG · 1×

Narrative

The Houthis have also advanced rapidly in Yemen, capturing territory including Perim Island at the mouth of the Red Sea — a development which pushed oil prices above $US100 per barrel late last week. And the British maritime security agency, UKMTO, reported on Sunday that another vessel had been struck by a projectile in the strait, forcing the crew to be evacuated as the ship caught on fire.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-15
🔮 He wrote that: "If inventory depletion is reached, we estimate that Brent oil futures may need to rise to [around] $US150 per barrel to force uncontrolled demand destruction (i.e. where high prices force lower demand) for emerging Asian economies."
2026-09-15 · ABC News (AU)
Analysts warn of 'uncontrolled demand destruction' as oil forecast to hit record high · assertive framing

Claims (28 extracted, 2 hedged)

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis fired dozens of missiles and drones at a military air base in Khamis Mushait in southern Saudi Arabia overnight. asserted
Houthis → align → Arabia
This latest escalation follows an attack on Thursday, which knocked out the Saudis' East-West pipeline. asserted
which → follow → pipeline
The pipeline played a crucial role in easing the world's concerns about an impending global oil shortage. asserted
pipeline → play → shortage
For months, it had allowed oil tankers to bypass the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, a critical supply route for roughly 20 per cent of the world's oil supply. asserted
tankers → allow → supply
The Houthis have also advanced rapidly in Yemen, capturing territory including Perim Island at the mouth of the Red Sea — a development which pushed oil prices above $US100 per barrel late last week. And the British maritime security agency, UKMTO, reported on Sunday that another vessel had been struck by a projectile in the strait, forcing the crew to be evacuated as the ship caught on fire. asserted
ship → advance → fire
The fighting between the Saudis and Houthis creates another problem for US President Donald Trump and other authorities trying to minimise the disruption to global oil supply. asserted
fighting → create → supply
Saudi Arabia has led a coalition battling the Houthis since 2015, but the conflict had largely quietened under a ceasefire in the past few years. asserted
conflict → lead → years
The fragile truce collapsed in July as Houthi strikes hit Abha Airport and the Houthis declared a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping. asserted
Houthis → collapse → shipping
Reuters reported that Washington has so far resisted Saudi requests for direct military intervention beyond intelligence support. asserted
Washington → report → support
More pain at the pump All those worrying developments have pushed the global benchmark, Brent crude, above $US107 per barrel today. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also jumped to $US103 per barrel. Tapis, which is Australia's regional benchmark crude price, is now trading at $US110 per barrel, up 46 per cent since July. asserted
which → push → July
The price of Tapis effects the wholesale petrol price, or what service stations pay for fuel. asserted
stations → effect → fuel
But the motoring group NRMA has told the ABC that the difference between the wholesale and retail price is currently non-existent. asserted
difference → tell → price
This means the price of fuel at the bowser is likely to increase in coming weeks. asserted
price → mean → weeks
The average price of unleaded petrol, according to NRMA, has risen to $2.19 per litre, while the national average for diesel has lifted to $2.68. uncertain
average → accord → 2.68
"Unfortunately, the trajectory [for motorists] for the petrol price is up," NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury said. asserted
Khoury → say → price
Mr Khoury, however, expects the price at the bowser to fall quickly if the Middle East conflict were to de-escalate. asserted
conflict → expect → bowser
"The closure of the East‑West pipeline in Saudi Arabia following multiple attacks has materially altered the state of the oil market," Commonwealth Bank's lead mining and energy commodities strategist, Vivek Dhar wrote in a note. asserted
strategist → follow → note
"[It] means that instead of 40‑45 per cent of prewar flows through the Strait of Hormuz needed to keep global oil and refined product inventories unchanged, 65‑70 per cent of prewar flows are now required. asserted
cent → mean → flows
"The sizable shift almost single-handedly reflects the closure of the East‑West pipeline. asserted
shift → reflect → pipeline
" World running out of oil Analysts now say the world is weeks away from returning to critically low levels of oil supply. asserted
world → run → supply
"Our low estimate that global markets had five to 11 weeks of global oil and refined product stockpiles is growing in likelihood," Mr Dhar said. asserted
Dhar → grow → likelihood
"This compares with our base case of 15‑20 weeks — where flows through the Strait of Hormuz were 30 per cent of prewar levels and global oil markets had the benefit of pipeline bypasses, subdued Chinese imports and rising non‑OPEC+ supply outside the Middle East." asserted
markets → compare → East
He wrote that: "If inventory depletion is reached, we estimate that Brent oil futures may need to rise to [around] $US150 per barrel to force uncontrolled demand destruction (i.e. where high prices force lower demand) for emerging Asian economies." uncertain
prices → write → economies
In July 2008, Brent crude surged as high as $US147 per barrel. " asserted
crude → surge → barrel
This price level is derived from the last time that emerging Asian economies saw uncontrolled demand destruction in 2008. asserted
economies → derive → 2008
"With nonlinear rises in both oil and refined products now a real possibility, Iran has maximised its leverage against the US. asserted
Iran → maximise → US
This will likely make it harder for Mr Trump to extract the United States out of its war with Iran, in a way that does not sound like defeat or capitulation. asserted
that → make → defeat
Until then, the rest of the world is bearing the brunt of more expensive oil prices and higher cost of living. asserted
rest → bear → living
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