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“Election observers might actually be overindexing to presidential years, when there are the same two candidates on the ballot at the top of the ticket, and race-by-race correlations are stronger than in midterms.”

“The model forecasts both Congressional and gubernatorial races, but it’s trained on both midterm years like 2022 and years where these races coincide with presidential elections.”

“In 2022, President Biden’s deep unpopularity and the long history of the president’s party performing poorly in midterm elections suggested the possibility of a red wave.”

“The way our model adjusts for likely voters, it used to be that Republicans reliably had a turnout advantage in midterm elections.”