Photo via The Straits Times

Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula about even ahead of Brazil runoff, Datafolha poll shows

Read the original at The Straits Times ↗
Cite

The Straits Times. (2026, October 22). Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula about even ahead of Brazil runoff, Datafolha poll shows. The Straits Times. https://www.straitstimes.com/world/flavio-bolsonaro-and-lula-about-even-ahead-of-brazil-runoff-datafolha-poll-shows

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Straits Times · collected 2026-10-22 · by The Straits Times

Quick Summary

A recent Datafolho poll shows Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are nearly tied for Sunday's runoff election, with 47% and 46% of the vote respectively. The survey, conducted between October 20-22 among 2,154 people, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Earlier in the month, Flavio Bolsonaro led Lula in the first-round voting.
Written by AI on 2026-10-22, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

As of October 22, 2026, a Datafolha poll shows that Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are nearly tied ahead of Brazil's presidential runoff election scheduled for Sunday. The senator, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is projected to receive 47% of the vote compared with 46% for President Lula. Last week’s poll had Flavio at 47% and Lula at 45%. Datafolha surveyed 2,154 people from October 20-22, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points; the undecided voters make up 2%, while 5% said they would cast blank votes. Flavio Bolsonaro led Lula in the first-round vote earlier that month, which is an unexpected turn of events given his father's previous support base.

Written for “Flavio Bolsonaro And Lula Poll Results” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Flavio Bolsonaro And Lula Poll Results
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 14% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Al Jazeera
Hedges 1 of 2 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles describe different events: one reports on a poll result while the other describes final rallies held by the candidates.”
Semafor
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 3 claims Outlet record 59/100
The Straits Times
Hedges 0 of 17 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles describe different events - one is a poll result and the other is a debate between the candidates.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 1 of 3 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles describe different phases of the campaign and polling leading up to the runoff, not the same specific event or moment.”
Washington Examiner
Hedges 1 of 3 claims Outlet record 70/100
“Article A reports on a poll released before the runoff election, while Article B discusses the candidates' final campaigning efforts and preparations for the actual voting day.”
Al Jazeera
Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles describe different stages of the election process, not a single specific incident.”
The Straits Times
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 3 of 23 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles describe different events: one is about a debate between Lula and Bolsonaro, while the other reports on a poll showing their election standings.”
The Straits Times
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 5 of 24 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles cover different aspects of the election, with Article A focusing on older voters and their potential impact, while Article B reports a poll comparing Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro's standings.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ Leans strongly left Hedges 4 of 31 claims Outlet record 64/100
“Article A discusses the reaction and mobilization after Flávio Bolsonaro's performance in the first round, while Article B reports on a poll predicting results for the runoff election.”
Al Jazeera
Hedges 2 of 12 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles describe different polls conducted on different dates and by different organizations, not the same specific polling incident.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
7
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
14%
1 of 7 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
66/100
The Straits Times's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-22 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Straits Times · 4184 article(s) · 5 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 5 correction(s)

Who wrote this

The Straits Times
2721 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 On the eve of elections that will decide whether President Donald Trump’s Republican Party keeps control of Congress, voters’ minds are on the economy, with high and rising prices a key issue and many blaming Trump’s policies, specifically tariffs and the Iran war, for the nagging inflation.
🔮 US President Donald Trump’s threat to strike Iran again confronts America’s Gulf allies with a stark prospect: another war decided in Washington in which the US bases built to protect them could instead make them targets for harsh Iranian reprisal.
🔮 Hungary's governing Tisza party will approve the president's nominee for chief prosecutor, Prime Minister Peter Magyar said on Monday, a significant step in Magyar's efforts to reshape public institutions after his April election victory.
🔮 Americans head to the polls on Nov 3 in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress for the final two years of US President Donald Trump’s term.
🔮 Uganda said on Monday it had begun withdrawing its troops from Somalia as part of a phased drawdown that will end an almost two-decade deployment helping Mogadishu fight the al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab insurgency.
🔮 Mohammad Juaaba, a relative of one of the assailants, said the top floor of the family’s home had been destroyed, adding that they planned to move back into the lower floors. Rubble from the demolition blast was strewn around the house, and other relatives could be seen cleaning up the spaces that were still habitable.
2026-11-02 · assertive framing · Israel army withdraws after Hebron operation
🔮 Democrats sought on Monday to contain a rift in Michigan's US Senate race after one of their own crossed party lines to endorse the Republican candidate, as both parties made final pitches before midterm elections that will decide control of Congress US Representative Haley Stevens, who lost the Michigan Democrats' Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed in a bitterly contested race, publicly backed Republican candidate Mike Rogers and appeared with him at a Detroit church, threatening to worsen divisions in a state viewed as crucial to Democratic hopes of retaking the US Senate. The unexpected move lifted the mood of President Donald Trump's Republicans before Tuesday's midterms even as a federal judge dismissed a US Justice Department lawsuit seeking to block certification of election results in Alaska if Republican incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan narrowly loses in the battleground state. In Michigan, Stevens' decision to endorse Republican Rogers surprised party leaders, with some members, such as Representative Debbie Dingell, saying that it created a "distraction" for Democrats.
🔮 President Donald Trump’s Justice Department has shown a willingness to intervene directly in Tuesday's midterm elections, breaking with decades of practice meant to avoid the appearance that its law enforcement powers are being used to benefit a political party or candidate.
🔮 US President Donald Trump ordered the agency to write rules that would bar it from delivering ballots if the states did not agree to turn over lists of eligible voters and some voters have expressed concern about voting by mail. The Supreme Court blocked Trump and the USPS from enforcing those rules in September. Trump’s fellow Republicans are locked in a tight battle to retain control of Congress in the midterms.
🔮 As the rain hammered down on Charles, 77, he was seen gesturing and turning round to try to attract the attention of someone who might help, while Camilla was shielded from the downpour.
Also by The Straits Times
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 2721 articles by The Straits Times →

Topics

Brazil Brazilian Datafolha REUTERS SAO PAULO

Subjects

Datafolha ORG · 4× Lula PERSON · 3× Flavio Bolsonaro PERSON · 2× Bolsonaro PERSON · 1× Brazil GPE · 1× Brazilian NORP · 1× Jair Bolsonaro PERSON · 1× Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva PERSON · 1× REUTERS ORG · 1× SAO PAULO GPE · 1×

Narrative

Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula about even ahead of Brazil runoff, Datafolha poll shows SAO PAULO, Oct 22 - Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are about even heading to Sunday's election runoff, a Datafolha poll showed on Thursday.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-22
🔮 The senator, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 47% of the vote compared with 46% for the president, according to the poll.
2026-10-22 · The Straits Times
Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula about even ahead of Brazil runoff, Datafolha poll shows · assertive framing

Claims (7 extracted, 1 hedged)

Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula about even ahead of Brazil runoff, Datafolha poll shows SAO PAULO, Oct 22 - Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are about even heading to Sunday's election runoff, a Datafolha poll showed on Thursday. asserted
poll → show → Thursday
The senator, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 47% of the vote compared with 46% for the president, according to the poll. uncertain
senator → receive → poll
Last week, a Datafolha poll showed the younger Bolsonaro at 47% and Lula at 45%. asserted
poll → show → %
• The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. asserted
poll → have → points
• 5% of the respondents said they would cast a blank vote, and undecided voters made up 2%, the poll showed. asserted
poll → say → %
• Datafolha surveyed 2,154 people between October 20-22. asserted
Datafolha → survey → October
• The senator surprisingly led Lula in the first-round vote earlier this month. asserted
senator → lead → vote
💬Give feedback
🕘History 🎫Support