Back in May, the shape of British politics shifted dramatically.
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shape → shift → politics
I’ll forgive you if you were too preoccupied refreshing Andrew Sparrow’s live blog for the latest speculation about Keir Starmer to notice, but since 7 May, centre-left nationalist parties that ultimately aspire to leave the UK have been in government for the first time simultaneously in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
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that → forgive → Scotland
This week sees the initial codification of that shift.
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week → see → shift
In Cardiff yesterday, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, Scottish National party leader John Swinney and Sinn Féin vice-president Michelle O’Neill (who shares power with the Democratic Unionist party) affirmed their countries’ right to seek independence from the UK.
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who → share → UK
Along with the leader of the opposition in Ireland, Mary Lou McDonald, they signed a memorandum of understanding that called on Westminster “to prepare, plan and facilitate constitutional change in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland”.
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that → sign → Wales
And they posed for a fair number of group photos too.
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they → pose → photos
With each of the sister parties having a different timeline towards a referendum and its own domestic pressures, it’s tempting to dismiss this as spectacle over substance.
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it → have → substance
However, these first ministers are not shouting into a vacuum.
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ministers → shout → vacuum
They are part of a cross-national conversation in which devolution is the defining project of the UK’s still newish prime minister.
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devolution → define → minister
For today’s First Edition, I spoke to our Wales correspondent, Bethan McKernan, in Cardiff about why this agreement is more than a photocall, and checked in with colleagues in Scotland and Ireland for the view from there too.
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agreement → speak → view
Five big stories
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Reform UK | Andy Burnham’s government could thwart Reform’s unprecedented £72m donations with retrospective restrictions on political donors that will include tough new residency requirements, ministers have announced.
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ministers → thwart → requirements
Donald Trump has dismissed calls to increase controls on AI as a “sick conspiracy”, as stocks linked to the technology slumped after appeals from Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX leaders on the weekend for the industry to slow down.
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industry → dismiss → weekend
Nato fighter jets shot down a drone over Lithuania after an alert was issued in the capital and surrounding region, while Poland scrambled fighter jets less than a day after retrieving a suspected Russian drone adrift in its waters.
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Poland → shoot → waters
Yemen’s Houthi rebels have seized two strategic islands in the Red Sea, reinforcing the Iran-backed group’s ability to control a key shipping route, as concerns mount that the world is facing a new oil supply crisis.
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world → seize → crisis
Two leading experts have quit Lucy Letby’s defence team over concerns about the “scientific credibility” of some of its evidence.
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experts → quit → evidence
In depth: Can devolution hold the UK together?
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devolution → hold → UK
Listening to the leaders in Cardiff discuss the “growing recognition that Westminster is not working” and that “power genuinely needs to be brought closer to people and communities”, you might have thought Andy Burnham was in the room.
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Burnham → listen → room
The memorandum signed by all four stated that no Westminster government has the right to “block democracy” by refusing a referendum should the public demand it.
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public → sign → it
At the morning press conference Swinney and O’Neill called for immediate referendums in Scotland and Northern Ireland; ap Iorwerth declined to give a timetable.
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Iorwerth → call → timetable
Later that afternoon, the Scottish and Welsh first ministers signed the Cardiff Agreement, setting out shared priorities like child poverty and economic growth, and which Swinney described as “an important moment in the history of devolution”.
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Swinney → sign → devolution
Events in Cardiff were gifted extra salience by a series of unscripted interventions over the past week.
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Events → gift → week
On a visit to Ireland last weekend, Donald Trump told reporters that he would “love” to see a united Ireland and it “may as well happen now”, prompting swift rebuttal from unionists on the Stormont executive and the UK government, as well as a solid gold response from SDLP leader Claire Hanna, who said: “It turns out that he isn’t as orange as he looks”.
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he → tell → Hanna
Only weeks prior, Andy Burnham incensed Irish nationalists by declaring a reunification referendum was “off the table” – forgetting that it’s not his table, because the Good Friday agreement includes a provision for a border poll should it appear that the majority of Northern Irish voters want to leave the UK.
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majority → incense → UK
In a constitutional one-two, Burnham said last week at PMQs that a second referendum on Scottish independence could be held if a “clear consensus” emerged in favour - but swiftly self-corrected, telling an eager Swinney that such a vote was “off-limits” while he focuses on growing the economy and tackling the cost of living.
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he → say → living
Nonetheless, says Bethan McKernan, “there is this sense that since Plaid Cymru won the Senedd elections in Wales in May, this is a new chapter in the Celtic struggle for independence – or breaking up the UK, depending on which way you look at it.
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you → say → it
What this all means for Wales
It was an acknowledgment of this momentum, then, that the meeting was held in Cardiff, where Plaid Cymru recently ended a century of Labour control of the Senedd.
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Cymru → mean → Senedd
Latest polling puts support for Wales to leave the UK at 32%, but growing in strength, and ap Iorwerth has been explicit that he won’t push for a referendum this term.
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he → put → referendum
Nevertheless, says Bethan, Plaid Cymru are “very ambitious …
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Cymru → say → ?
part of their agenda is to put Wales on the world map and mark Wales out as a nation that can stand on its own two feet.”
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that → put → feet
Now in power, the party is focusing on domestic issues, and also bracing for disruption with Reform winning more than a third of seats in the Senedd.
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Reform → focus → Senedd
It’s a similar scenario at Holyrood, where Reform is joint second largest party alongside Scottish Labour.
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Reform → ’ → Labour
Both ap Iorwerth and Swinney have been outspoken in their opposition to right wing populism and benefited at the ballot box.
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Iorwerth → benefit → box
There are already clear signs that Plaid Cymru has been learning from the SNP: one of their early priorities has been the Cynnal, a £10 a week child poverty payment, which is closely modelled on the successful Scottish Child Payment.
… and Scotland
The SNP was returned to Holyrood in May for an unprecedented fifth term, following a lacklustre campaign that mirrored voter disengagement and an unusually high level of undecideds.
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that → be → undecideds
As its programme for government earlier this month failed to ignite public enthusiasm, this agreement is an opportunity for the Nationalists to “move the conversation back to their overarching aim - and have another confrontation with London,” Patrick Greenfield tells me.
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Greenfield → fail → me
(He’s now reporting from Edinburgh, after a memorable stint on this very newsletter).
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He → report → newsletter
Patrick reminds me that, while support for independence continues to hover around the 50% mark, enthusiasm among younger cohorts is higher: there’s a sense of Swinney future-proofing support for the party as Yes voters drift away from the SNP.
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voters → remind → SNP
And there’s the convenient diversion of attention from domestic travails, Patrick adds: the lingering scandal after former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell was jailed for embezzling party funds, demands for action as Scotland slumped in international education rankings last week, or looming public sector cuts as his government anticipates a near-£5bn gap in its finances by the end of the decade.
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government → ’ → decade
Ahead of the Holyrood elections, I can recall Swinney positively beaming at the “seismic” potential of three pro-independence administrations: now it has come to pass, his focus is thought to be on seeking an agreed mechanism for triggering a vote, although that wasn’t discussed yesterday.
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that → recall → vote
Sinn Féin can talk up the significance of the memorandum but its focus is very much on next year’s Stormont assembly elections, Rory Carroll tells me from Dublin.
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Carroll → talk → Dublin
Like the SNP, Sinn Féin’s popularity has slipped in recent years as public services crumble and it fail to deliver on key infrastructure pledges – but it is likely to win out against a fragmented unionist opposition.
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it → slip → opposition
…and 42 more, not listed.
The Aporia
