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South Carolina tossup means state may elect Democrat to Senate for first time in 28 years

Read the original at The Guardian ↗
Cite

Washington, J. G. i. (2026, October 29). South Carolina tossup means state may elect Democrat to Senate for first time in 28 years. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/29/south-carolina-senate-tied-race

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Guardian · collected 2026-10-29 · by Joseph Gedeon in Washington

Quick Summary

A new poll shows South Carolina’s US Senate race between Democrat Annie Andrews and Republican incumbent Darline Graham to be a tie at 48% each, challenging the state's long-standing Republican dominance in national elections since 1998. Graham, appointed after her brother's death with Trump’s endorsement, faces criticism for lacking experience, particularly on national security issues, while Andrews campaigns on healthcare reform and distancing herself from party left-wing positions to appeal to independents.
Written by AI on 2026-10-29, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

As of October 29, 2026, the South Carolina Senate race between incumbent Senator Darline Graham (R-SC) and Democrat Annie Andrews is now considered a "toss-up" by Fox News, reflecting a tightening contest just days before Election Day. According to recent polling from the New York Times/Siena poll, both candidates are tied at 48% each among likely voters. This marks a significant shift from previous ratings that favored Graham.

Graham, appointed to the Senate in July after her brother Sen. Lindsey Graham's death, decided to run for a full term following President Donald Trump’s encouragement and won a bitter primary against Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC). However, she faces criticism for her lack of experience; 51% of voters believe she lacks the necessary expertise to be an effective senator.

South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998 when Fritz Hollings served his final term until 2005. Trump remains personally invested in the race, holding rallies for Graham and using unflattering nicknames against Andrews. Republicans have allocated additional $5 million to support Graham as an "insurance policy" to retain control of a seat Lindsey Graham always won by more than 10%.

Written for “South Carolina Senate Race Toss-Up” on 2026-11-04, grounded in this article and the 5 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 South Carolina Senate Race Toss-Up
Politics · 6 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 5% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
South Carolina polling has Andrews and Graham neck-and-neck in final sprint to Election Day Same event
Washington Examiner
Hedges 1 of 3 claims Outlet record 69/100
Fox News Power Rankings: South Carolina moves to toss-up Same event
Fox News
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 8 of 90 claims Outlet record 68/100
How Do You Solve a Problem Like Elon Musk? Same event
The Bulwark
Hedges 4 of 98 claims
Lindsey Graham's sister in stunning dead heat for his seat that could flip blue for the first time in decades Same event
Daily Mail
Hedges 0 of 14 claims Outlet record 69/100
Some thoughts on South Carolina’s surprisingly close Senate race Different event
Silver Bulletin
Hedges 9 of 44 claims
“The articles discuss the South Carolina Senate race but describe different aspects: Article A speculates about potential outcomes if Democrats have a good night, while Article B reports on current polling that shows the race as a toss-up.”
Fox News shifts its rating of South Carolina Senate race to toss-up Same event
Washington Examiner
Hedges 0 of 3 claims Outlet record 69/100
Midterm races in Alaska, South Carolina heat up as Trump steps in Different event
CBS News
Hedges 0 of 3 claims Outlet record 65/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of midterm elections; Article A focuses on polling data in South Carolina, while Article B mentions Trump's involvement and an investigation in Alaska.”
CBS News adds South Carolina as battleground state; still Leans Republican Different event
CBS News
Hedges 0 of 1 claims Outlet record 65/100
“Both articles discuss the competitiveness of the South Carolina Senate race but describe different analyses and perspectives from separate polling periods.”
Could a Democrat Win the Race for the Late Lindsey Graham's Seat in Deep-Red South Carolina? Same event
TIME
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 5 of 54 claims Outlet record 59/100
DR ANNIE ANDREWS: South Carolina should expect more from their senator Different event
Fox News
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 35 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles describe different aspects of the election campaign; Article A reports on poll results, while Article B is a speech by Annie Andrews.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
19
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
5%
1 of 19 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
66/100
The Guardian's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
6
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-29 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

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Who wrote this

Joseph Gedeon in Washington
23 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 But she has kept her distance from the Democratic party’s left flank, saying she does not support the Medicare for All proposed model of universal healthcare, while also conceding that Democrats failed on the border, and declining to name a national Democrat she would like to campaign with her.
2026-10-29 · assertive framing · South Carolina tossup means state may elect Democrat to Senate for first time in 28 years
🔮 As a candidate positioned at the center of what researchers say are the worst Islamophobic attacks seen since the aftermath of 9/11, many would expect Abdul El-Sayed to simply defend himself and move on.
2026-10-21 · assertive framing · ‘What are you implying?’: El-Sayed confronts critics head-on as attacks ramp up
🔮 It will devour America if we let it.”
2026-10-19 · assertive framing · Trump borrows from far right to blame unrest in France on immigration
🔮 At the event on Saturday, an attendee who gave his name only as “Tommy” shouted from the crowd, asking whether El-Sayed would disavow the movement.
2026-10-19 · assertive framing · Man who heckled Abdul El-Sayed is former Josh Hawley aide, records show
🔮 “He spun this story up again in the hopes that the judge would be lenient, or the prosecutor would be.”
2026-10-15 · assertive framing · US senator Susan Collins writes off allegations of corruption as ‘completely false’
🔮 “We have asked ambassador Guilfyole to resign, she has been a wonderful asset to the team and we wish her well,” said Katie Zacharia, the new White House press secretary, during her first briefing on Tuesday.
2026-10-13 · assertive framing · Kimberly Guilfoyle asked to resign as ambassador after reports she asked Trump donor to pay bill
🔮 The US senator Chris Murphy said the Pentagon blocked him from a major US base in Qatar, yet saw enough damage on the US embassy in Saudi Arabia to conclude that an Iranian strike would have been deadly had it happened during the day.
2026-10-08 · assertive framing · Democratic senator says Hegseth trying to hide costs of Iran war from US public
🔮 Pete Hegseth has said the execution of Nidal Hasan, the former army psychiatrist who killed 13 people at Fort Hood, will be a public event when the sentence is carried out later this year.
2026-10-08 · assertive framing · Hegseth says execution of Fort Hood shooter will be a public event
🔮 The figure could not be independently verified.
2026-10-08 · mixed framing · Trump promises not to attack Iran before November’s US midterms
🔮 Any suspension would require an act of Congress.
2026-10-06 · assertive framing · Trump says he is weighing suspension of federal gas tax
Also by Joseph Gedeon in Washington
‘What are you implying?’: El-Sayed confronts critics head-on as attacks ramp up
2026-10-21 · The Guardian
Trump borrows from far right to blame unrest in France on immigration
2026-10-19 · The Guardian
Man who heckled Abdul El-Sayed is former Josh Hawley aide, records show
2026-10-19 · The Guardian
US senator Susan Collins writes off allegations of corruption as ‘completely false’
2026-10-15 · The Guardian
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 23 articles by Joseph Gedeon in Washington →

Topics

Democrat New York Times Republican Senate South Carolina

Subjects

Graham PERSON · 7× Republican NORP · 4× Trump PERSON · 4× Andrews PERSON · 3× Democrat NORP · 3× South Carolina GPE · 2× Annie Andrews PERSON · 1× Darline Graham PERSON · 1× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× Senate ORG · 1×

Narrative

But she has kept her distance from the Democratic party’s left flank, saying she does not support the Medicare for All proposed model of universal healthcare, while also conceding that Democrats failed on the border, and declining to name a national Democrat she would like to campaign with her.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-29
🔮 But she has kept her distance from the Democratic party’s left flank, saying she does not support the Medicare for All proposed model of universal healthcare, while also conceding that Democrats failed on the border, and declining to name a national Democrat she would like to campaign with her.
2026-10-29 · The Guardian
South Carolina tossup means state may elect Democrat to Senate for first time in 28 years · assertive framing

Claims (19 extracted, 1 hedged)

A US Senate race in one of the most Republican states in the country is now a dead heat, according to a new poll showing Annie Andrews, a Democrat, tied with Darline Graham, the Republican incumbent senator. uncertain
Andrews → accord → Graham
South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998, and Donald Trump won it by nearly 18 points in 2024, but a New York Times/Siena poll this week has the two candidates neck and neck, at 48% each. asserted
candidates → elect → %
Graham was appointed to the seat after her brother, Lindsey Graham, died in July, and she entered the race at Trump’s urging, without having ever held elected office. asserted
she → appoint → office
Her inexperience has become one of the defining aspects of the campaign, which culminated in an August debate when she admitted she was “not that informed on national security” when asked about US policy on Taiwan. asserted
she → become → Taiwan
In the poll, 51% of voters said she lacked the right experience to be an effective senator. asserted
she → say → experience
Andrews, a pediatrician from Charleston, has meanwhile built her campaign around her medical career. asserted
Andrews → build → career
Her solution to better access to doctors and climbing medical bills has been to advocate for a public option and cheaper prescription drugs. asserted
solution → climb → option
But she has kept her distance from the Democratic party’s left flank, saying she does not support the Medicare for All proposed model of universal healthcare, while also conceding that Democrats failed on the border, and declining to name a national Democrat she would like to campaign with her. asserted
she → keep → her
That pitch appears to be working with independents, who back her over Graham by 57% to 37%. asserted
who → appear → %
Graham, by contrast, is leaning heavily on Trump’s support. asserted
Graham → lean → support
She opposes abortion rights, and has said she completely trusts Trump on tariffs and the war with Iran. asserted
she → oppose → Iran
On immigration, she’s argued that anyone in the country illegally should be deported “immediately”. asserted
anyone → argue → country
Trump visited the state last week to rally for Graham in a 90-minute speech, calling Andrews extreme and drawing repeated interruptions from protesters. asserted
Trump → visit → protesters
He returns again on Thursday. asserted
He → return → Thursday
Republicans are spending heavily in South Carolina, despite their longstanding electoral dominance in the state. asserted
Republicans → spend → state
The party’s establishment is also not entirely united: one Republican congressman, Ralph Norman, who lost the runoff against Graham, has said he will not campaign for her. asserted
he → unite → her
Other recent polls show an equally tight contest, though most have Graham narrowly ahead. asserted
most → show → contest
A South Carolina Policy Council survey conducted this month gave Graham a one-point lead, within its margin of error. asserted
survey → conduct → error
That same poll showed how much Andrews has been outrunning her own party – the Democratic candidate for governor, Jermaine Johnson, trailed the Republican, Alan Wilson, by 10 points. asserted
candidate → show → points
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