Post midterm elections, Asia faces a more constrained but not less unpredictable Trump
AI generated
COLUMBIA, SOUTH CAROLINA -
asserted
Asia → face → Trump
If there’s a trillion dollar question hanging like haze in the skies over the United States and Asia, it’s probably related to President Donald Trump’s post-midterm avatar.
asserted
it → ’ → avatar
Will he just focus on his golf courses and the White House ballroom remodelling projects since he is now officially a lame duck?
Or will he march down the legacy road, take even more aggressive actions to carve out his name in history?
asserted
he → focus → history
Or will it just be business as usual?
The answers will come soon enough.
asserted
answers → come → ?
Trump will convene a meeting of the world’s largest economies, by virtue of the US hosting the G20 leaders’ summit, on Dec 14-15.
asserted
US → convene → Dec
Before this, he is scheduled to visit Manila, November 16 to 18, for the annual Asean summit.
asserted
he → schedule → summit
Immediately afterwards is the two-day Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Shenzhen when he meets Chinese President Xi Jinping for their third meeting this year, the second in China.
asserted
he → meet → China
Which Trump will show up?
asserted
Trump → show → ?
A president more willing to strike deals or more keen to establish that he remains in charge?
asserted
he → strike → charge
After the Nov 3 midterm elections which ended the rule of the unified Republican government, the Democrats are taking control of both the Houses of Representatives and the Senate when the new Congress convenes in January.
asserted
Congress → end → January
The newly empowered opposition is expected to challenge the administration’s priorities, obstruct legislation and launch investigations of the Trump administration on various fronts, from the legality and justification of military strikes in Iran to the Trump family’s foreign business dealings.
asserted
opposition → empower → dealings
Joseph Chinyong Liow, the dean and professor in East Asian Affairs at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, expects a long spell of unpredictability.
asserted
Liow → expect → unpredictability
“I would be very surprised if President Trump takes a reconciliatory turn in his politics,” Liow said.
asserted
Liow → take → politics
“More likely he will double down to assert his presidential authority over both chambers,” he added.
asserted
he → double → chambers
For Asia’s export-driven economies, the central concern circles around Trump’s sweeping, volatile tariff regime enacted within months of his inauguration even as the US threatens even more tariffs under some ongoing investigations.
asserted
US → drive → investigations
The midterm defeat will not give way to a rollback of Trump’s signature economic policy although some Democratic leaders had vowed to repeal tariffs on goods from Canada, among US’ largest trade partners.
But the president could simply veto any bid to restrict or repeal his tariff powers.
uncertain
president → give → powers
Overriding the veto would require two-thirds support in both chambers, in other words, substantial Republican backing.
asserted
Overriding → override → backing
Democratic lawmakers can also be expected to bear down on Trump’s handling of the eight-month-old Iran war, in part to address the higher petrol and diesel prices that riled up the voters.
asserted
that → expect → voters
Heavily reliant on Middle Eastern energy imports, Asia is closely watching for signals on post-midterm oil prices.
asserted
Asia → watch → prices
Bob McNally, president of the Rapidan Energy Group, a leading energy market and geopolitical risk research firm, said he was not expecting a decline in oil prices in the short run.
asserted
he → lead → run
“The elections themselves should not have a big impact on oil prices, which will be driven mainly by perceived and actual interplay of diplomacy and military escalation between the US and Iran,” he said.
asserted
he → have → US
Oil had slumped before the election in hopes of a diplomatic deal.
asserted
Oil → slump → deal
But McNally said he had not revised the odds favouring military escalation in the coming weeks.
asserted
he → say → weeks
Over a longer timeframe, oil prices could go higher if the Democrats dismantle policies under Trump’s energy dominance agenda, said an oil industry source.
uncertain
source → go → agenda
Those efforts opened access to vast federal lands, accelerated drilling approvals and removed environmental oversight.
asserted
efforts → open → oversight
Also scrutinised will be the windfall gains, in excess of US$130 billion (S$166.15 billion), which oil majors made after the Iran war.
New restrictions are also likely on the growth of data centres to address voter backlash against rising utility costs, noise pollution and distrust of the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI).
asserted
restrictions → scrutinise → intelligence
These will impact production at Asian tech companies, mainly in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, that supply the critical hardware that powers America’s AI buildout.
asserted
that → impact → buildout
Greater oversight of AI, likely in the form of new probes from congressional committees against AI giants, will add compliance hurdles for Asian developers.
asserted
oversight → add → developers
But it could also stimulate Asia’s own sovereign AI push.
uncertain
it → stimulate → push
Analysts also expect the heat to turn up on pharmaceutical companies, including in Asia, that have made drug-pricing deals with the Trump administration.
asserted
that → expect → administration
China or Asia did not show up as a major issue in the exit polls of voters, said US economist Stephen Roach, the former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.
asserted
Roach → show → Asia
But he expected the Democratic leadership in the US Congress to take a firm stance on China.
asserted
leadership → expect → China
“I would look to the China policy of the Biden administration as a template - creating a source of tension with Trump’s endorsement of “constructive strategic stability.”
asserted
I → look → stability
The phrase, adopted in May to describe the new framing of the US-China relationship to manage their rivalry, could come under attack.
uncertain
phrase → adopt → attack
The Biden administration enacted some of the most restrictive conditions on exports of advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment to China while also raising tariffs on strategic industries like China-made electric vehicles.
But the fundamentals of the US-China relationship will remain largely on the current trajectory, argued Han Shen Lin, the Shanghai-based China Managing Director for The Asia Group, a strategic advisory.
asserted
Lin → enact → Group
“The Republican setback tempers Trump’s negotiating leverage and constrains his room for manoeuvre but Washington’s strategic concerns over China are firmly bipartisan,” Lin said.
asserted
Lin → temper → China
Tariffs may become more negotiable but technology restrictions - particularly around semiconductors and AI - are too rooted in national security and unlikely to ease significantly, he said.
uncertain
he → become → security
Still, the next two years in the US-Asia interactions will hit different.
asserted
years → hit → interactions
Beijing may see some political opportunity, said Lin, but it won’t mistake electoral turbulence for American decline.
uncertain
it → see → decline
While Xi can approach Shenzhen from a position of even greater confidence, he’ll likely seek greater predictability and leverage rather than a grand bargain,” he said.
asserted
he → approach → bargain
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
