On the surface, at least, Vice President JD Vance seems to be in an almost impossible position.
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Vance → seem → position
Following last week’s disastrous midterm wipeout, caused in large part by President Donald Trump’s ill-advised war with Iran, the current administration has become so toxic that it has become widely assumed that anyone even remotely associated with it will have zero chance to win the GOP nomination, much less the presidency, in 2028.
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anyone → follow → 2028
Peel back the onion a bit, though, and Vance might be the only person currently serving in Trump’s administration with any shot whatsoever.
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Vance → peel → shot
First evidence is that the vice president was the highest-profile administration official, and arguably one of the only ones, to oppose the Iran war from the start.
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president → oppose → start
In June, New York Times White House correspondent Maggie Haberman reported that Vance’s internal opposition to the war was so vocal it even hurt his relationship with the president.
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it → report → president
“Vance was the only one who really vocally took issue with this with Trump,” Haberman said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
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Haberman → take → Press
“And it irritated Trump, it cost Vance with Trump, but he was the only person who was really sort of rattling the cages,” she added.
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she → irritate → cages
So when the war turned out exactly as he feared, the guy who put his reputation and political career at stake to warn against it had the right to an ‘I told you so.’
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I → turn → you
After the blue tsunami, he chose to assert that right, and then some.
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he → choose → right
“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance wrote in a viral post-midterm X post that rocked the political landscape.
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that → lose → landscape
The media portrayed it as a break with Trump, though the president later called the assessment “largely true” while arguing it was still worth the cost.
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it → portray → assessment
Because, and I’m just spitballing here, when have you ever seen Donald Trump admit he was wrong about anything?
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he → spitballe → anything
Now, some on the non-interventionist side, particularly the more anti-Trump elements, blame Vance for not resigning, but I’m not giving that any credence here.
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I → blame → credence
What Joe Kent did — resigning from his position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center to protest the war — was honorable, but as an unelected appointee he was in a far different position than the vice president of the United States, who understandably felt he could do more good working within the administration than outside of it.
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he → resign → it
Even more striking than his initial opposition to the war was the vice president’s willingness to use the I-word, Israel, in his post-mortem.
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willingness → use → mortem
Citing a pollster he called “one of the smartest people in politics,” Vance listed four things Republicans would have to do to win back angry Trump 2024 voters who planned to vote for Democrats this cycle: “1) End the war, 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation, 3) Put America First, 4) Change our relationship to Israel.
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who → cite → Israel
That’s pretty huge, historic even, especially given the stranglehold the Israel lobby has had on U.S. politics for decades.
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lobby → ’ → decades
While administrations have certainly clashed with Israel over specific foreign policy decisions, no one of Vance’s rank has ever gone so far as to question the nature of the relationship itself.
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one → clash → relationship
Interestingly, while the usual suspects (looking at you, Mark Levin) screech, in an era where more than 60 percent of Americans have a negative view of Israel, this puts the vice president squarely on the right side of one of the key issues of our time.
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this → look → time
Which, of course, means the powers-that-be are afraid.
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powers → mean → course
At present, there are two anti-Vance factions that exist: One thinks he can’t win the nomination because he is Trump’s VP and will forever be associated with this failed presidency, while the other thinks he can’t win it because he broke with Trump on the war (you know, since being for pointless wars in the Middle East is MAGA now, or something).
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being → be → East
Ironically, facets of both criticisms could work in the vice president’s favor.
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facets → work → favor
As things stand now, JD Vance has the best shot at winning the general election of any Republican currently considered a GOP nominee contender.
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Vance → stand → Republican
By being associated with Trump, having the unique ability to articulate the best expression of Trump’s populist, MAGA movement, and not being afraid to break with Trump on the presidency’s most crucial failure, Vance might be able to walk the admittedly incredibly narrow tightrope to the nomination.
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Vance → associate → nomination
If he wins that, the tremendous upside is that he has the background and populist bona fides to win the Rust Belt again, which will be essential since Trump has made Texas purple.
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Texas → win → Belt
As things stand, it’s hard to imagine candidates like Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, or even Ron DeSantis, the best state governor of my lifetime, doing a better job in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania than Vance would.
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Vance → stand → Michigan
The pushback a potential Vance candidacy has received from both the left and the Establishment, neocon, Israel-First right is indicative of their fear.
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candidacy → receive → fear
Far from taking any responsibility for their recklessness, neocons like Mark Levin and Ben Shapiro blame Vance and his failed MOU for prolonging the war, as if a few more rounds of bombings were going to somehow convince Iran to see reason.
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rounds → take → reason
The establishment media also clearly despises the vice president, with headlines like The New York Times’ “JD Vance is Probably Toast” and Vox’s “JD Vance’s Bad Week Gets Worse” being just the tip of the iceberg of post-midterm coverage.
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Week → despise → coverage
The irrational, suspiciously strong hatred for JD Vance coming from all the worst people is evidence that the vice president could be not just over the target with his latest commentary, but in a unique position to potentially provide the kind of populist appeal and leadership it’ll take to bring Republicans out of the political purgatory they currently find themselves in.
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they → come → themselves
The Aporia
