Germany is facing a far-right surge as the Alternativ fur Deutschland (AfD) gains momentum across the country.
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Deutschland → face → country
Berlin, one of the world’s most liberal cities, could be next when voters go the polls on Sunday.
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voters → go → Sunday
After success in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the party has set its sights on the capital, as it continues its efforts to modify its brand after being classified by German intelligence as a right-wing extremist organisation.
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it → set → organisation
Strong polling places the AfD just 3.4 per cent behind The Left party and 2.5 per cent behind chancellor Friedrich Merz’s centre-right CDU, according to an average published by dawum.de.
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polling → place → dawum.de
It’s a dramatic change from three years ago, when the AfD sat 19.1 per cent behind the leaders in Berlin’s state election.
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AfD → ’ → election
An AfD victory in Berlin would turn a political shock after the Saxony-Anhalt result into a country-wide earthquake, marking the second far-right state election success since the Second World War - and the second in two weeks.
“The way the AfD is campaigning looks less toxic, less dirty, less smelly, and that matters,” says Grégoire Roos, director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes at Chatham House, who has tracked the AfD’s rise for more than a decade.
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who → turn → decade
“The profile of its leaders, the way they’re campaigning, plus the growing concern with where the city is going, makes up a fertile enough ground for the AfD to secure, if not a victory, at least some form of strategic win - in what has traditionally been seen as a safe space,” he says.
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he → campaign → space
The AfD may look to emulate the gameplan of Ulrich Siegmund, Saxony-Anhalt’s successful leader, which saw the party transform its image from a movement of protest against the mainstream parties to one with more confidence in its own radical agenda.
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party → look → agenda
Migration is, as usual, a major pillar of its campaign, including explicit demands for “remigration”, a new buzzword for the far-right.
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Migration → include → right
Housing policy has been emphasised, with AfD advocating for preferential treatment for native-born citizens in Germany.
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AfD → emphasise → Germany
Programmes related to anti-discrimination, diversity and gender equality are forcefully opposed.
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Programmes → relate → discrimination
But the party appears to recognise the need for a wider appeal.
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party → appear → appeal
Kristen Brinker, the AfD’s leader in Berlin, has a softer public perception than some of the AfD’s better-known national leaders.
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Brinker → have → leaders
Its local programme in the capital has been centred as much around the big city problems - housing, rent, education - as around German national identity.
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programme → centre → identity
“Marginalised parties have understood that to conquer part of the urban electorate, there's a kind of moral caution,” says Mr Roos.
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Roos → understand → caution
“You need to behave a certain way.
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You → need → ?
There's a type of behaviour you should avoid, and [the AfD] have somehow successfully done it.
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AfD → be → it
They've passed the first screening in a way."
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They → pass → way
The AfD has shot up to third in the polls and looks set to almost double its 2023 vote share to around 18 per cent.
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AfD → shoot → cent
The Left are topping the polls at 21 per cent with the centre-right CDU second at 20.1 per cent, while the centre-left SPD, for decades Berlin’s largest party, could plummet down to 12.2 per cent.
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SPD → top → cent
The AfD has been siphoning voters from four key quarters of the German electorate, Mr Roos says, a trend it will look to replicate in Berlin.
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it → siphon → Berlin
CDU voters dismayed by the direction of both party and country have flocked rightwards, in part due to a sense of betrayal over Merz’s circumvention of the debt brake, a legal fiscal rule limiting how much structural debt a government can build up annually.
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government → dismay → debt
A similar trend has been seen before, such as in the mid-2010s, when former chancellor Angela Merkel allowed around one million refugees into Germany.
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Merkel → see → Germany
In Saxony-Anhalt, the swing from 2021 was clear: the AfD gained 23 points as the CDU lost 19.9, while other parties remained within a few percentage points of their result five years ago.
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parties → gain → result
Young, undecided voters form another vital portion of AfD support.
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voters → form → support
In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD won over 170,000 voters who were undecided before the election, after their campaign managed to “appeal to a younger fringe of the electorate by reaching out to them through means of social media”, says Mr Roos.
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Roos → win → media
Other elements include a fringe of voters who are socially right-wing and economically left-wing, along with neo-Nazi voters, many of whom have been loyal to the party since its inception.
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many → include → inception
Its CDU electorate is not as right wing as in other states, and the so-called ‘firewall’ - the unwritten agreement in which opposition parties work together to keep the far right out of power - is likely to “stand strong”, Mr Roos says.
Young people in Berlin are also more likely to veer towards the left of the spectrum than in some other areas.
A symbolical under-16s election in Berlin last week, in which 40,000 children participated last week, was dominated by the Left (32.8 per cent) and the Greens (20.9 per cent), with the AfD at just 5.8 per cent.
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children → call → cent
Organisers emphasised that it was voluntary and does not perfectly represent all young people in Berlin, but the gap is nonetheless stark.
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gap → emphasise → Berlin
For 40 years, the capital was split between West Germany and the GDR, the historical communist state between 1949 and 1990.
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capital → split → 1949
“It's not a very wealthy city,” Mr Roos adds.
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Roos → add → ?
The east was part of the GDR [communist East Germany], where the AfD remains very popular.
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AfD → remain → GDR
So there's also a pattern that makes it consistent with the logic.
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it → be → logic
It is a pattern shared across Europe, he adds, where even in the cities, the desire for radical political change has seen many turn hard-right, exemplified by Reform in the UK.
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many → share → UK
“Even amongst the globalised urban electorate, there is a fatigue of what politics has become,” Mr Roos says.
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Roos → be → electorate
As a result, he adds, there is “an increasingly clear openness to throw a bomb in the system”.
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he → add → system
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