Two weeks ago, a seemingly minor election in Germany made global headlines: The Alternative for Germany (AfD) took 44 percent of the vote in state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, putting the far right within a stone’s throw of government for the first time since World War II.
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Alternative → make → II
A series of elections held today are unlikely to receive the same attention but may be even more revelatory about Germany’s dire state.
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series → hold → state
The AfD once again had a very strong night in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
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AfD → have → Vorpommern
Just as strikingly, the Christian Democrats fell short of five percent of the vote.
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Democrats → fall → vote
As a result, the party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz will be denied any representation in the state’s parliament, the first time this has happened in the history of the Federal Republic.
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this → deny → Republic
For Merz, this is the last nail in the coffin: He may cling to office for another few weeks or months.
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He → cling → weeks
But his authority is now gone, his ability to shape the country totally depleted.
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ability → go → country
In political terms, he is a dead man walking.
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he → walk → terms
The importance of this historic rout extends beyond one person.
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importance → extend → person
Its members have ruled the Federal Republic for 53 out of the last 77 years.
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members → rule → years
From Konrad Adenauer to Helmut Kohl to Angela Merkel, they put their imprimatur on every aspect of the country.
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they → put → country
But the era in which catch-all parties like the Christian Democrats could shape the political landscape is rapidly coming to an end.
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parties → shape → end
The void they are leaving behind is quickly filling with extremists of every stripe—not just in Germany, but all around the democratic world.
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they → leave → world
Here’s the single question I have been asked most often over the course of the last ten years: “Is the populist wave here to stay—or is it about to crest?”
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it → ’ → years
The answer seemed obvious to me in the summer of 2016, when Donald Trump became the Republican nominee and Britain voted to leave the European Union.
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Britain → seem → Union
Now, it has grown undeniable: The populists are here to stay.
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populists → grow → ?
What seemed abnormal a few years ago has—like it or hate it—become mainstream.
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seemed → seem → it
Politicians who fall into this bucket are now in power in the United States, in India, in Turkey, and in many other parts of the democratic world.
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who → fall → world
They have a high chance of taking office in France and Brazil over the course of the coming months.1
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They → have → course
Even in places where they are likely to remain in the opposition for at least a few years, they have now grown sufficiently powerful to destroy any sense of business-as-usual.
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they → remain → business
The best recent illustration of that reality comes from the country that has resisted the trend the longest.
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that → come → trend
Back in the fall of 2016, leading politicians in Berlin were still privately assuring me that the Alternative for Germany would never manage to enter the Bundestag.
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Alternative → assure → Bundestag
Today, the AfD is leading in national polls.
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AfD → lead → polls
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the party once again came out on top, taking about 38 percent of the vote.
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party → come → vote
Because a panoply of other parties failed to clear the five percent hurdle for representation in parliament, a broad left-wing coalition obtained just enough votes to govern the state.
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coalition → fail → state
But this is an electoral accident which is unlikely to be repeated in the future—and a difference of a few thousand votes would have made the state completely ungovernable.
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state → repeat → votes
As in many other countries, the rise of one extreme party is fueling the rise of another.
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rise → fuel → another
The Linke (Left), which was the big winner in another election held today in the city-state of Berlin, descends from the Socialist Unity Party (SED) which governed East Germany with an iron fist.
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which → hold → fist
In the first years after reunification, it mostly spoke to older voters who were nostalgic for the security of the communist regime.
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who → speak → regime
Over recent years, the party has refashioned itself in the image of the global illiberal left.
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party → refashion → left
During the recent electoral campaign in Berlin, some of its supporters were filmed chanting “Yalla, Yalla Intifada!”
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some → film → Intifada
On the night of the election, the head of an infamous criminal clan visited the Left’s election party, gleefully telling the media about his feeling of kinship with it.
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head → visit → it
On Sunday, the Left Party won 26 percent of the vote.
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Party → win → vote
Though a variety of coalitions remains arithmetically possible, the party’s leader is now likely to become the next mayor of Berlin, the first time that the successors of the SED have captured power in the nation’s capital.
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successors → remain → capital
Most of the support for the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats who once dominated Germany’s political landscape came from pensioners.
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who → dominate → pensioners
Among voters below 35, The Left and the AfD held an unassailable majority in both Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
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Left → hold → Berlin
This suggests that an even greater lurch to the extremes is likely in the offing over the course of the coming years.
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lurch → suggest → years
While Germany’s Social Democrats had once enjoyed over 40 percent of support, for example, they were going from record low to record low.
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they → enjoy → low
In retrospect, it is clear that the fate of the major center-left parties was but a leading indicator for a much broader crisis of the political center: in time, the Christian Democrats duly followed suit.
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Democrats → follow → suit
The era of what Germans still call Volksparteien—catch-all parties capable of mobilizing a large portion of the vote—is effectively over.
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Germans → call → vote
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
