President Donald Trump’s sinking ratings threaten to drag down Republicans in November’s midterm elections, as voters blame him for high prices and a shaky economy, according to a new NBC News poll.
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voters → sink → poll
The president’s approval rating stands at 41% among registered voters, a second-term low in the poll, with a majority (55%) of voters saying they believe Trump’s policies have hurt the economy.
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policies → stand → economy
That’s up from 48% in March, before the Iran war pushed up prices on gas and other goods and cemented the rising cost of living as voters’ most pressing issue.
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war → ’ → issue
Democrats hold a 5-point edge in the battle for control of Congress, 50%-45% — not nearly as large a lead as the 12-point advantage the party enjoyed at this point before the 2018 election, when Democrats rode an anti-Trump wave to the House majority in his first midterm as president.
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Democrats → hold → president
Despite that lead, the Democratic Party is still viewed more negatively than Trump and the GOP.
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Party → view → Trump
That could help Republicans, along with the fact that the fight for control of the House and especially the Senate is playing out in traditionally Republican parts of the country.
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fight → help → country
Democrats would have to flip multiple states Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to win the Senate.
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Trump → have → Senate
“We have a classic battle between these numbers and the political geography in which this campaign will be decided,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, whose firm conducted the survey alongside Democratic firm Hart Research Associates.
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firm → have → Associates
“And the Republicans are still standing because of the geography in which this election will be won or lost.
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election → stand → which
Still, the poll suggests an increasingly gloomy political environment for the GOP.
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poll → suggest → GOP
Longtime double-digit leads over the Democratic Party on who would better handle inflation and the economy have evaporated.
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who → handle → inflation
More than 6 in 10 voters say the Iran war has not been worth it.
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war → say → ?
Voters don’t appear to be motivated by Trump’s signature tax and spending legislation he championed last year.
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he → appear → legislation
Instead, Trump himself is a powerful motivating factor, but more for Democrats than for Republicans, as more voters — including nearly half of independents — say they consider their vote a signal of opposition to the president than at any other time in three decades of NBC News polling before midterm elections.
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vote → motivate → elections
“Donald Trump has achieved his goal of making this election about him at a historic level.
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election → achieve → level
The problem for Trump and Republicans on the ballot in November is that he has also made history in the highest share of voters who say their vote is in opposition to Trump,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates.
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Horwitt → make → Associates
Republicans on the campaign trail are trying to shore up their standing by arguing that Democrats are too extreme to trust with congressional majorities.
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Democrats → try → majorities
But the poll indicates voters are more anxious about restraining Trump: 50% say they’re more concerned that Republicans will go too far in supporting Trump if they keep control of Congress, while 42% are more concerned Democrats will obstruct the president if they win control of Congress.
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they → indicate → Congress
Independents lean 45%-30% toward greater concern that Republicans will go too far supporting Trump.
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Republicans → lean → Trump
McInturff acknowledged the challenges for the GOP posed by the political environment, even as the party’s geographic advantages keep Democrats fighting on their turf.
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advantages → acknowledge → turf
“The issue environment is tilting substantially towards the Democrats,” McInturff said.
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McInturff → tilt → Democrats
Trump’s struggles continue
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struggles → continue → ?
A majority of voters, 56%, disapprove of Trump’s job performance, including overwhelming shares of Democrats and independents and 16% of Republicans.
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majority → disapprove → Republicans
The share of voters who strongly approve of Trump, 25%, is the second-lowest mark recorded in the NBC News poll across Trump’s first and second terms.
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who → approve → terms
The disapproval rating closely tracks the 55% who say Trump’s policies have hurt the economy, while 26% say they have helped and 18% say they have not made much of a difference.
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they → track → difference
At this point in the 2018 election cycle, more voters said Trump’s policies helped the economy (41%) than hurt (26%).
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policies → say → %
And the survey suggests some of Trump’s signature economic policies are falling flat.
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some → suggest → policies
While Republicans are touting Trump’s signature tax cut and spending measure known as the “big, beautiful bill,” which was enacted in 2025, 42% of voters say they are less likely to support a candidate backing the measure, while 36% say they are more likely to support such a candidate.
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they → tout → candidate
Trump’s latest gambit — an announcement at the recent Republican convention that he wanted to issue $5,000 payments to every adult if Republicans keep control of Congress — isn’t garnering much interest.
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Republicans → want → interest
While 21% of voters say they’re more likely to back a candidate who supports Trump’s plan, 46% say they’d be less likely.
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they → say → plan
A plurality of Republicans say it would make no difference in their vote choice, while Democrats are uniformly against the idea and 45% of independents would be less likely to support a candidate in favor of the plan.
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% → say → plan
Among independents, 13% say they’d be more likely to support a candidate who backs Trump’s plan.
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who → say → plan
Voters are also continuing to express opposition to the Iran war, with 57% saying they are less likely to support a candidate who supports the war, versus 24% who are more likely to support that candidate.
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who → continue → candidate
One-third of voters say the war has been worth it, while 62% disagree.
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% → say → voters
And Democrats also have a 4-point advantage, within the poll’s margin of error, on the question of which party voters say they trust to handle the war with Iran.
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they → have → Iran
Trump has continued to insert himself into the midterms, including endorsing nearly all Republicans in competitive congressional races.
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Trump → continue → races
But 52% of voters are less likely to support a candidate endorsed by Trump, while 30% are more likely to support a Trump-backed candidate.
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% → support → candidate
Democratic opportunities — and challenges
Clear dissatisfaction with the president opens the door for Democrats as they fight for control of Congress this fall.
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they → open → Congress
Forty-three percent of registered voters say their vote for Congress is intended to signal opposition to Trump, while 27% say they plan to vote to send a signal of support for Trump and 28% say their vote won’t be a signal either way.
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vote → register → Trump
Among independents, almost half (46%) see their vote as a signal of opposition to Trump, while just a handful (10%) say their vote is a signal of support for the president.
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vote → see → president
…and 25 more, not listed.
The Aporia
