Can Democrats flip the Senate?
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Democrats → flip → Senate
Here’s the latest in key races
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latest → ’ → races
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Click here to listen to this article -
- Republicans currently hold a 53-47 edge in the Senate, and 35 seats are on the November ballot.
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seats → click → ballot
Polls have shown Trump with an approval rating consistently below 40%.
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Polls → show → %
As Republicans contend with President Trump’s deep unpopularity, Democrats are attempting to seize the opening to take the U.S. Senate in the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
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Democrats → contend → elections
Polls have shown Trump with an approval rating consistently below 40%, with no end in sight to the Iran war and voters expressing deep economic anxiety.
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voters → show → anxiety
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 edge in the Senate, and 35 seats are on the November ballot.
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seats → hold → ballot
Months of polling indicate that eight Senate seats — six of which are currently held by Republicans — are now up for grabs.
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six → indicate → grabs
Democrats will need to win at least four of them, while holding on to two contested seats currently held by their party, in order to flip the chamber.
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Democrats → need → chamber
Five key races are unexpectedly close, with some polls giving Democrats a better edge than expected, but the outcomes are still in doubt, as swaths of voters remain undecided.
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swaths → give → voters
The Cook Political Report, a leading forecaster, rates each one a toss-up.
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Report → lead → one
Here’s how they are shaping up:
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shaping → ’ → ?
Michigan: El-Sayed vs. Rogers
In perhaps the highest-profile contest, former public health official Abdul El-Sayed is facing Republican Mike Rogers for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.
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Sayed → face → Peters
El-Sayed, aligned with the party’s progressive wing, narrowly defeated moderate Rep. Haley Stevens in a heated Democratic primary.
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Sayed → align → primary
He is looking to rally her supporters as well as disaffected Republican voters.
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He → look → supporters
Rogers is courting independents and a cohort of Jewish Democrats who view El-Sayed’s desire to reduce funding to Israel’s military as a dangerous proposition.
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who → court → proposition
According to a CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters released Sept. 9, El-Sayed led Rogers 47% to 44%, a result within the margin of error.
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Sayed → accord → error
Notably, 26% of respondents said they could still be persuaded to vote for either candidate, leaving the race wide open.
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they → say → race
The barbs in this race have become deeply personal, with anti-Muslim rhetoric taking center stage.
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rhetoric → become → stage
In a series of ads and artificial-intelligence-generated images, Republican groups — including the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Front Line Action — have cast El-Sayed as a supporter of terrorism.
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groups → generate → terrorism
During speeches and interviews, members of the Trump administration, including the president, have repeatedly referred to the candidate by his full name, Abdulrahman Mohamad El-Sayed.
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members → include → name
Rogers has continually drawn attention to a campaign event hosted by El-Sayed that included Hasan Piker — a Los Angeles-based online political commentator who recently drew widespread attention for a 2019 comment that “America deserved 9/11” while discussing blowback against U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.
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America → draw → East
El-Sayed has railed against Rogers for refusing to debate and for his endorsement by Trump.
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Sayed → rail → Trump
This week, El-Sayed stood alone on the Fox 2 Detroit debate stage after Rogers declined an invitation, dubbing his opponent “Mike Dodgers” on several occasions.
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Rogers → stand → occasions
Rogers later accused the moderator of bias toward the Democratic candidate.
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Rogers → accuse → candidate
The candidates have agreed to debate on Oct. 8 and 21.
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candidates → agree → Oct.
Texas: Talarico vs. Paxton
State Rep. James Talarico is seeking to become the first Texas Democrat elected to the Senate since 1993.
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Talarico → seek → 1993
His Republican opponent, state Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton, received Trump’s endorsement and defeated four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the primary.
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opponent → receive → primary
While gaining a seat in Texas has long been a far-off dream for Democrats, Paxton’s controversies have dogged him during the race.
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controversies → gain → race
A Mason-Dixon Research poll showed the Democrat leading Paxton 46 to 43, in a state that Trump won by nearly 14 points in 2024.
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Trump → show → 2024
Other polls, including one from Insider Advantage, had the margin at a single point.
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polls → include → point
Paxton is seen as a prominent fixture in the MAGA movement, using his position as attorney general to contest Obama-era clean energy and healthcare acts and launching lawsuits against the Biden administration for its immigration policy.
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Paxton → see → policy
Talarico has made Paxton’s association with the president a key piece of his campaign, slamming Paxton as “the most corrupt politician in Texas” and spotlighting his impeachment by the Texas House of Representatives in 2023 over allegations of bribery, breach of public trust and misuse of his office to aid a donor.
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association → make → donor
(Paxton survived the impeachment vote and denied wrongdoing.)
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Paxton → survive → wrongdoing
Several attack ads on Talarico, launched by Republican political action committees, have focused on his past support for transgender youth and accused him of exaggerating his faith to garner the Christian vote.
Maine:
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ads → launch → vote
Six-term incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins is hoping to retain her seat as Democratic challenger Troy Jackson attempts to replicate the grassroots success of former nominee Graham Platner’s campaign.
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Jackson → hop → campaign
Jackson, a former state lawmaker, was chosen by Maine Democratic Party delegates to run in place of Platner, who dropped out in July after sexual misconduct allegations against him.
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who → choose → him
A former lumberjack, Jackson shares Platner’s working-class background and is running on Medicare for All and increased taxes for billionaires.
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Jackson → share → billionaires
Collins has repeatedly demonstrated her staying power and won reelection in 2020 even as the state went blue in the presidential race.
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state → demonstrate → race
Her willingness to stand up to Trump could become a deciding factor this time around; Collins is working to highlight her votes to block Trump’s $1.8-billion Department of Justice anti-weaponization fund and against the Iran war.
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Collins → stand → war
…and 18 more, not listed.
The Aporia
