Can Democrats flip the House?
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Democrats → flip → House
Here’s the latest in key races
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latest → ’ → races
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- All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election; 21 are considered toss-ups.
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21 → click → election
- An Ohio incumbent is facing an ethics investigation after his ex-wife accused him of extreme physical abuse, which he denies.
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he → face → which
After two years of struggling to slow down the Trump administration agenda under a Republican governing trifecta, Democrats are hoping to capture both chambers of Congress in the upcoming midterms.
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Democrats → struggle → midterms
All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, with 37 considered competitive, 21 of them toss-ups, by the Cook Political Report — a respected polling analysis site.
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21 → consider → Report
Republicans currently hold a 218-214 edge over Democrats, with two seats vacant and one independent in the chamber.
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Republicans → hold → chamber
To control the House, Democrats need a net gain of four seats.
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Democrats → control → seats
Recent polls have shown Democrats creeping up on or surpassing their Republican opponents as President Trump’s approval rating hovers under 40%, which may offer an opening in unexpected places.
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which → show → places
But still, in a time when a more progressive wing has risen in popularity on the left, even some moderate Democrats are suffering from associations with the current administration.
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Democrats → rise → administration
Ohio 7th: Miller vs. Poindexter
Incumbent Republican Max Miller, mired in controversy, will face union ironworker Brian Poindexter in a 7th Congressional District race that went from solidly Republican to a toss-up in the matter of weeks.
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that → mire → weeks
Miller, a second-term congressman, is facing a House Ethics Committee investigation after his ex-wife, Emily Moreno — daughter of Ohio Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno — accused Miller of extreme physical abuse, which he has denied.
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he → face → which
Miller also faced accusations from former White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham that Miller had abused her during their relationship.
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Miller → face → relationship
An Ohio judge recently ordered both parties to remove social media posts about each other that were considered disparaging.
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that → order → other
Poindexter, a relative unknown, has surged in the meantime.
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Poindexter → surge → meantime
According to a Co/efficient poll last month, Poindexter was leading Miller by 14 points, with 86% of respondents claiming they were aware of allegations against Miller.
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they → accord → Miller
Poindexter has centered his campaign on strengthening unions, retaining healthcare benefits for retirees and injured workers and raising wages.
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Poindexter → center → wages
Miller has attacked his opponent for a 1998 arrest in which Poindexter, a teenager at the time, allegedly tried to swallow a rock of crack cocaine during a traffic stop.
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Poindexter → attack → stop
Miller also homed in on an instance of alleged assault at a baseball game in 2013 by Poindexter.
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Miller → home → Poindexter
Incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez Jr. is attempting to retain his seat against challenger Eric Flores, an Army veteran endorsed by Trump.
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Jr. → attempt → Trump
Elected in 2016, Gonzalez held the 15th Congressional District for three terms until 2021, when a Texas redistricting shift absorbed his McAllen home into the 34th district.
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shift → elect → district
He is currently serving his second term under a new map, which favors Republicans and has shed many of his Latino constituents.
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which → serve → constituents
Democrats need to gain at least four seats, and not lose any, to retake control of the Senate.
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Democrats → need → Senate
Here are five races to watch in the final weeks before Nov. 3.
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races → watch → Nov.
Flores, a political newcomer, made his first national appearance at the Republican National Committee’s midterm convention in Dallas, touting his commitment to border security and accusing Gonzalez of allowing migrants to make the community unsafe.
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community → make → Gonzalez
Immigration looms as an issue in the race.
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Immigration → loom → race
Gonzalez has introduced bills to prevent federal and state immigration enforcement officers from entering homes without an official warrant, and to force agents to wear clear identification.
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Gonzalez → introduce → identification
He has publicly criticized raids targeting hospitality, medical and construction workers.
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He → criticize → workers
Gonzalez has scored endorsements from several progressive organizations in the state, including LUPE Votes — a subsidiary of La Unión del Pueblo Entero.
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Gonzalez → score → Entero
In a Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll from August, Gonzalez was leading Flores, 45% to 42%, with 8% undecided.
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% → lead → Flores
North Carolina 1st: Davis vs. Buckhout
Incumbent Democrat Rep. Donald Davis will have to contend with a district that has grown more conservative to retain his seat against Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout.
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that → have → Buckhout
North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District was the state’s only swing seat held by a Democrat before last year’s redistricting, which made the area lean Republican.
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area → hold → Republican
This will be a rematch of the 2024 race, which Davis won by less than 2 points, or around 6,000 total votes.
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Davis → win → points
Cook Political Report ranked this race as leaning Republican, calling Davis “the most vulnerable House Democrat in the country.”
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Report → rank → country
It is unclear whether the gerrymandering effort will have been effective enough to make the district flip to Republican.
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district → make → Republican
Trump endorsed Buckhout in March and reiterated his support last week.
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Trump → endorse → support
New York 17th: Lawler vs. Conley
New York Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler is attempting to fend off a challenge from Democrat Cait Conley, a former White House director of counterterrorism on the National Security Council.
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Lawler → attempt → Council
Cook Political Report rankings showed that early this year, the 17th Congressional District race went from likely Republican to a toss-up.
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race → show → up
Pete Buttigieg went on the campaign trail last week with Conley to promote the candidate’s bid to unseat Lawler.
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Buttigieg → go → Lawler
“Cait is as serious as it gets about keeping our country safe,” Buttigieg said on a rally stage in Tarrytown, “just like she is serious about bringing down the cost of housing, healthcare and energy.”
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she → get → housing
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
