Voters in Quebec are facing an almost unprecedented array of choices in this fall’s election, but amid the noise and bluster of a crowded field, they have yet to fall in love with any of their options.
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they → face → options
On Oct. 5, Quebeckers will select from five major political parties who are all likely to win at least a handful of seats in the province’s National Assembly.
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who → select → Assembly
It should be an embarrassment of riches, but voters seem unable to muster much enthusiasm for anything on the menu.
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voters → seem → menu
The Parti Québécois is favoured to win the most seats, but is hamstrung by its promise to hold a referendum on Quebec sovereignty that most people don’t want.
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people → favour → that
The Coalition Avenir Québec is weighed down by the baggage of eight years in power.
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Québec → weigh → power
When the CAQ formed its first government in 2018, promising a new brand of nationalism that didn’t include a referendum on separation, it blew up a political landscape that had been defined for decades by the debate over sovereignty.
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that → form → sovereignty
Eight years on, the electoral battlefield is littered with shrapnel from that explosion.
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battlefield → litter → explosion
The result is five parties that all cater to subsets of the Quebec electorate.
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that → cater → electorate
But none of those parties has so far proved capable of seducing a critical mass of voters in a campaign that feels strangely stagnant.
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that → prove → campaign
Each of the five contenders has a core of loyal support, often concentrated in certain regions.
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Each → have → regions
Sovereigntists mostly vote for the PQ.
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Sovereigntists → vote → PQ
Anglophones (largely in and around Montreal) consistently support the Liberals.
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Anglophones → support → Liberals
The CAQ is the party of choice for older francophones who don’t want a referendum.
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who → want → referendum
Urban progressives support Québec solidaire, a left-leaning sovereigntist party, while the Conservatives have a strong base among right-leaning voters around Quebec City.
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Conservatives → support → City
But with all five parties polling below 30 per cent, two- and three-way races are playing out in ridings across the province.
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races → poll → province
The three leading parties – the PQ, CAQ and Liberals – are all within a few points of each other, while roughly 40 per cent of voters still say their choice isn’t locked in.
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choice → lead → voters
On a doorstep in the Quebec City suburb of Charlesbourg, PQ candidate Gabriel Coulombe recently made his pitch to a couple who said they haven’t made up their minds about which way to vote.
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they → make → way
“The goods were not delivered” under the CAQ government, Mr. Coulombe told the couple.
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Coulombe → deliver → couple
They later told The Globe and Mail they have no interest in the sovereignty referendum promised by PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, which would be the province’s third vote on the question of whether Quebec should remain in Canada.
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Quebec → tell → Canada
Ms. Dinel said she’s thinking about voting for the Quebec Conservatives, a relatively new party projected to win seats for the first time this year.
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she → say → time
She voted for the CAQ four years ago, but they made some “bad choices,” she said.
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she → vote → choices
Mr. Simard seemed more inclined to give the CAQ another chance, though he didn’t offer the party a ringing endorsement.
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he → seem → endorsement
Leader Christine Fréchette “is already in place,” he said.
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he → say → place
The riding of Charlesbourg voted solidly CAQ in the last two elections.
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riding → vote → elections
But as voters seek change this time around, the campaign is a tight three-way race between the PQ, the CAQ and the Conservatives.
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campaign → seek → PQ
“It’s the kind of election that could be decided by a few hundred or a few dozen votes,” Mr. Coulombe said in an interview.
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Coulombe → ’ → interview
Quebeckers have once before elected members of five parties to the provincial legislature, back in 1976.
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Quebeckers → elect → 1976
That election was an inflection point for the province, said Youri Rivest, co-founder of polling firm Synopsis Recherche.
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Rivest → say → Recherche
That year, René Lévesque led the Parti Québécois to form its first government, while the once-powerful Union Nationale won seats for the last time.
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Nationale → lead → time
Two of the other parties were bit players that dissolved not long after.
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that → dissolve → parties
This time, Mr. Rivest said, the five parties competing for votes are the result of a “fragmentation of the sociopolitical values of Quebeckers.”
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parties → say → Quebeckers
After decades of elections fought between the sovereigntist Parti Québécois and the federalist Liberals, the CAQ in 2018 suddenly made it possible to vote on other issues.
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it → fight → issues
“There was a very strong tension between federalists and sovereigntists,” he said.
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he → be → federalists
“But once you remove that tension, it reveals another axis – one that’s left-right.”
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that → remove → axis
Québec solidaire, the left-leaning party, won 10 seats for the first time in 2018.
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solidaire → lean → 2018
The Conservatives claimed nearly 13 per cent of the vote four years ago, but won no seats.
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Conservatives → claim → seats
Evelyne Brie, an assistant professor of political science at Université de Montréal, said the regionalization of politics is not unique to Quebec, and is partly driven by the rise of alternative media.
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regionalization → say → media
“It’s possible to get information from media outlets that are very specialized,” she said.
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she → ’ → outlets
“This creates echo chambers.”
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This → create → chambers
Two weeks ahead of election day, none of the leaders has managed to trigger one of the waves of popular sentiment for which Quebec is known, and the result on Oct. 5 will most likely be a minority government.
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result → manage → Oct.
…and 22 more, not listed.
The Aporia
