When Quebec Premier Robert Bourassa called a snap election in 1976, the official reason was that he needed a new mandate to address “a number of very important events (that) will affect the future of Quebec.”
asserted
that → call → Quebec
Bourassa already had a majority government.
asserted
Bourassa → have → government
He also had two years left in his mandate; Quebecers weren’t scheduled to go to the polls until the fall of 1978.
asserted
Quebecers → have → 1978
But optimism was riding high in the wake of the 1976 Montreal Olympics, and Bourassa pegged it as a good time to cash in that goodwill for a mandate that could at least last into the 1980s.
uncertain
that → rid → 1980s
Instead of renewing his majority, Bourassa was steamrolled by the first election win by the newly founded Parti Quebecois – a party that Bourassa had spent the campaign mocking.
asserted
Bourassa → renew → campaign
The Quebec Liberal even lost his own seat to a separatist poet.
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Liberal → lose → poet
On Tuesday, B.C. Premier David Eby called a snap election, also with a majority, and also with two years left in his mandate.
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Eby → call → mandate
The stated reason was that U.S. President Donald Trump is an “existential” threat to B.C., and the NDP premier needs his mandate renewed immediately to deal with it.
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mandate → state → it
The more likely reason is that, after an entire summer of polling behind the B.C. Conservatives, the opposition’s sudden collapse under leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay suddenly turned the tide, yielding two weeks’ worth of polls with an NDP lead.
asserted
collapse → turn → lead
It’s a gamble, and a gamble that has often paid off for premiers in recent years.
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that → ’ → years
Ontario Premier Doug Ford secured his third consecutive majority with a snap election in 2025.
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Ford → secure → 2025
Eby’s own predecessor, John Horgan, used a snap election in the opening months of the COVID-19 pandemic to secure not only a majority, but the most decisive result in B.C. NDP history.
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predecessor → use → history
But such gambles have also precipitated some of the most catastrophic reversals in Canadian political history.
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gambles → precipitate → history
In 1990, after just three years of his four-year mandate, he called an early election to capitalize on polls showing his Liberal party with a commanding 50 per cent of the vote.
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party → call → vote
In an instant, Ontarians who had been telling pollsters they liked Peterson changed their tune once it meant they had to mark it on a ballot.
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they → tell → ballot
The first poll issued after Peterson’s election call showed that his lead had instantly evaporated, and that he probably wasn’t going to retain his majority.
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he → issue → majority
“I’m getting a lot of questions about the early election.
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I → get → election
Maybe we didn’t do a good job explaining why we called this early election,” one Liberal candidate, Bernard Grandmaître, told the Ottawa Citizen at the time.
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candidate → do → time
The Liberals not only lost their majority, but they lost the election entirely to a majority win by the Ontario NDP.
asserted
they → lose → NDP
A similar turnaround occurred in Alberta in 2015.
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turnaround → occur → 2015
There again, a comfortably established incumbent, the Progressive Conservatives under Premier Jim Prentice, called an early election to consolidate what they assumed was going to be an easy win.
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they → establish → election
Instead, Prentice walked into a defeat that even the opposition didn’t see coming: An NDP majority, and his own party devastated beyond repair.
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party → walk → repair
Quebec political history even yields a second example of Liberals calling a snap election, only to be punished with a surprise victory from the Parti Quebecois.
asserted
Liberals → yield → Quebecois
That’s what happened to Quebec Liberal Premier Jean Charest in 2012.
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what → ’ → 2012
He called an early summer election in an apparent attempt to catch the electorate in a good mood, and wound up guaranteeing a defeat bad enough to cost him his own seat.
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He → call → seat
In 1984, John Turner had just succeeded the hideously unpopular Pierre Trudeau as federal Liberal leader, and thus prime minister.
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Turner → succeed → leader
Turner could have continued overseeing a Liberal majority for at least another year.
uncertain
Turner → continue → year
But buoyed by a brief resurgence in Liberal poll numbers, Turner scheduled a summer campaign.
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Turner → buoy → campaign
The 1984 election instead transformed into two months of ever-plunging Liberal support until, on Sept. 4, the Canadian electorate handed Progressive Conservative Leader Brian Mulroney a supermajority of 211 out of 282 seats.
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electorate → transform → seats
The electoral consequences of snap elections has been examined in depth by political scientists, and the usual takeaway is that Canadians don’t like being asked to vote if they don’t have to, and they’re inclined to punish whoever made them do it.
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them → examine → it
In 2022, a paper out of the University of Toronto concluded that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to call a snap election in 2021 yielded just enough blowback and voter apathy to deny him a sought-after majority.
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decision → conclude → majority
“Negative attitudes toward the election call are a decisive consideration for many voters, inflicting an electoral cost to the Liberal Party which likely deprived it from a legislative majority,” wrote the report authors.
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authors → inflict → majority
A 2004 paper in the journal Political Studies concluded that even when incumbents successfully secure power with a snap election, they can expect a measurable hit to their support if the call seems “opportunistic.”
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call → conclude → support
The paper’s test case was the 2000 federal election, where Prime Minister Jean Chrétien dropped the writ a year early for no other reason than conditions seemed good to renew his majority.
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conditions → drop → majority
He got that majority, but authors calculated it came at the expense of alienating one per cent of Liberal voters.
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it → get → voters
“Some voters are prepared to punish prime ministers for opportunistically calling a snap election, but in this case the electoral penalty was small,” it read.
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it → punish → case
When snap elections function as intended for the incumbent, it’s often in instances where election day is being moved up a few months, instead of coming in the middle of a term.
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day → function → term
It also helps if an incumbent’s lead in the polls is overwhelming.
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lead → help → polls
In 2024, Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston had his snap election call rewarded with an even larger majority.
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call → have → majority
But Houston was bumping up election day by just eight months.
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Houston → bump → months
…and 20 more, not listed.
The Aporia
