The CIA has warned Russia is preparing to carry out drone strikes in Europe targeting France, Spain and Italy from the sea, according to a report.
uncertain
Russia → warn → report
Several European governments have been passed information about the Kremlin’s supposed plans to escalate its interference on the continent, an unnamed source close to the Lithuanian ministry of defence told Spanish newspaper El Mundo.
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source → pass → Mundo
Lithuanian authorities believe Russia could use an explosive-laden Gerbera drone, launched from the sea, to cause a fire, damage exposed equipment or temporarily close a port or airport, according to the report.
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Russia → believe → report
Such a provocation would follow a string of reported incursions and alleged acts of sabotage across eastern Europe blamed on Russia.
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provocation → follow → Russia
Those attacks have until now fallen short of the threshold of direct military engagement.
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attacks → fall → engagement
Spain, France and Italy could become the targets of future attacks as all three have campaigns or elections scheduled for next year, the report suggests, noting the prevalence of “radical forces” within their borders that could exploit weariness with Ukraine.
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that → become → Ukraine
The Gerbera drone carries a payload of around four to five kilograms and can travel up to 600km (372 miles), flying at around 160km/h.
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drone → carry → km/h
Lithuania was said to have learned of the plans after CIA director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow at the end of August.
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Lithuania → say → August
Diplomatic sources from a Baltic country told El Mundo they had later been briefed on the trip.
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they → tell → trip
Several unnamed defence analysts told the newspaper that they were aware of a CIA report circulating among European foreign ministries that described a possible attack.
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that → tell → attack
The Independent was unable to verify the existence of such a report and approached the CIA for comment.
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Independent → verify → comment
Ratcliffe earlier this week met with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky at Shannon Airport in Ireland, Reuters reported, citing two people familiar with the matter, who declined to disclose details of their conversation.
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who → meet → conversation
Speaking on the sidelines of the UN general assembly in New York on Wednesday, Lithuanian foreign minister Kestutis Budrys told Reuters that allied intelligence pointed to a risk that Russia could try to broaden its pressure on Nato countries through attacks on critical infrastructure and other forms of hybrid activity.
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Russia → speak → activity
“There are some considerations on the Russian side to escalate horizontally, so to say, or geographically,” Budrys told Reuters.
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Budrys → be → Reuters
Separately, the Danish defence intelligence service said in a new threat assessment published on Thursday that they also expect Russia to escalate its hybrid warfare in the coming months.
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Russia → say → months
The Danish defence intelligence service said: “In the coming months, Russia will further intensify its hybrid warfare by carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and Nato, with greater consequences for the affected countries than in the past.”
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Russia → say → past
Hybrid attacks and sabotage have gained renewed attention after Germany blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack at the Leipzig/Halle Airport.
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Germany → gain → Airport
A Belarusian citizen and a Russian national linked to the country’s military intelligence services have been identified as the main suspects in the August attack.
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citizen → link → attack
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told reporters on Wednesday that Russia is “trying to scare Europe into winding down its support for Ukraine”.
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Russia → tell → Ukraine
Kallas said Russia appeared willing to take greater risks and argued the answer was to increase pressure on Moscow through tougher sanctions, including measures targeting its "shadow fleet" and military-industrial complex.
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answer → say → fleet
Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski said hybrid attacks were no longer merely a threat.
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attacks → say → ?
“They're not just threats; they're actual attacks,” Sikorski told Reuters, citing arson, explosions, drone incursions and what Warsaw says was a deliberate cruise missile violation of its territory.
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Warsaw → tell → territory
The Polish Army Operational Command said on Wednesday a Russian military Mi-8 helicopter made a brief incursion into its airspace from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
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helicopter → say → Kaliningrad
Poland’s deputy prime minister Krzysztof Gawkowski said a fire also broke out on Wednesday evening at a Starlink satellite comms station in central Poland was likely a hybrid attack, disrupting regional connectivity and internet access for the Ukrainian military.
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fire → say → military
He added that while it was not established that Russia was responsible for the fire, “many signs suggest this aligns with Russia’s new doctrine of attack”.
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this → add → attack
Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna said, however, that alarmist predictions of an imminent Russian assault on the alliance were misplaced.
“We don’t see that Russia is able and even preparing for some kind of active military aggression against NATO or the European countries,” he said, arguing Moscow lacked the capabilities for such an operation while its forces remained engaged in Ukraine.
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forces → say → Ukraine
The Kremlin consistently denies conducting sabotage operations in Nato countries or plotting any confrontation.
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Kremlin → deny → confrontation
The Aporia
