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Greens to win zero MPs in London as Labour gets 'Burnham bounce', says mega poll

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Cecil, N. (2026, September 24). Greens to win zero MPs in London as Labour gets 'Burnham bounce', says mega poll. Evening Standard. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/yougov-mrp-poll-london-zack-polanski-green-party-labour-burnham-b1298184.html

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Evening Standard · collected 2026-09-24 · by Nicholas Cecil

Quick Summary

A recent mega poll conducted by YouGov predicts that Labour will win 51 out of London's 75 seats, a decrease of eight seats compared to their previous performance. This projection is based on multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) research involving nearly 17,000 respondents surveyed between August 23 and September 18, 2026. The poll also indicates that the Green Party will not win any MPs in London but comes second in 31 constituencies, suggesting a growing local following despite their overall loss of seats.
Written by AI on 2026-09-24, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

According to a recent mega poll by YouGov using MRP research, the Labour Party is predicted to gain seats in London, improving significantly from their position a year ago when they were projected to have just 144 seats. In contrast, the Green Party will win zero MPs in the city but come second in 31 constituencies, suggesting they are growing in support locally. The poll also predicts that the Tories would regain six London seats previously held by Labour: Chelsea and Fulham, Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, Kensington and Bayswater, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip. However, this national-level polling does not account for high-profile candidates or local factors in specific areas like the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

Written for “UK General Election Polls” on 2026-11-01, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 UK General Election Polls
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 19% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
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Evening Standard
Hedges 6 of 19 claims Outlet record 65/100
“While both articles discuss a poll predicting Labour's strong performance and the Greens' lack of MPs in London, they are based on different polls conducted by YouGov and More in Common at different times.”
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Hedges 1 of 19 claims Outlet record 65/100
“While both articles discuss a poll showing improved support for Labour and diminished prospects for Greens, they report different aspects of the situation with distinct focuses.”
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Hedges 1 of 18 claims Outlet record 65/100
“The articles cover different aspects of political polling and leadership reactions but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
16
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
19%
3 of 16 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
65/100
Evening Standard's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-24 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Evening Standard · 8012 article(s) · 68 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 68 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Nicholas Cecil
93 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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🔮 Inflation creeping up will only have exacerbated this grim outlook.
🔮 Tax rises will almost certainly hit the capital hardest given that it is the wealthiest region of Britain.
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Also by Nicholas Cecil
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 93 articles by Nicholas Cecil →

Topics

Greens Labour Tories YouGov the Green Party

Subjects

Labour NORP · 5× Greens ORG · 3× Farage PERSON · 2× Tories ORG · 2× YouGov ORG · 2× Holborn GPE · 1× Polanski PERSON · 1× St Pancras GPE · 1× Tanya Abraham PERSON · 1× the Green Party ORG · 1×

Narrative

While the findings will be a blow to the Greens they have limited read-across to the Holborn and St Pancras by-election as MRP polling does not take into account the fact that Mr Polanski is a high-profile candidate or specific local factors.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-24
🔮 But this would be significantly better than at the time of YouGov’s last MRP poll a year ago when Labour was set to be left with just 144 seats.
2026-09-24 · Evening Standard
Greens to win zero MPs in London as Labour gets 'Burnham bounce', says mega poll · assertive framing

Claims (16 extracted, 3 hedged)

But this would be significantly better than at the time of YouGov’s last MRP poll a year ago when Labour was set to be left with just 144 seats. asserted
Labour → set → seats
But the new poll had the Green Party gaining no MPs in the capital. asserted
Party → have → capital
However, Tanya Abraham, YouGov’s Head of International Political Research, said: “While the Greens are not projected to win any seats in the city, they come second in 31 and are clearly building a following in the capital.” asserted
they → say → capital
The survey is MRP research (multi-level regression and post-stratification) which is based on large-scale polling of sections of society and extrapolating to get constituency level results. asserted
which → base → results
While the findings will be a blow to the Greens they have limited read-across to the Holborn and St Pancras by-election as MRP polling does not take into account the fact that Mr Polanski is a high-profile candidate or specific local factors. asserted
Polanski → limit → fact
The Tories would win back six seats that they lost to Labour just over two years ago, according to the survey. uncertain
they → win → survey
They include Chelsea and Fulham, Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, Kensington and Bayswater, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip. asserted
They → include → London
But Labour would hold on in previously Conservative areas of Chipping Barnet, Putney and Battersea. asserted
Labour → hold → Barnet
Read More It would also win Bexleyheath and Crayford, as well as Dagenham and Rainham from Labour. asserted
It → read → Labour
Overall, Labour is projected to win 51 of the capital’s 75 seats on current voting intentions, a loss of eight. asserted
Labour → project → eight
However, Mr Farage’s party may struggle to achieve such a breakthrough given that it failed to gain control of Barking and Dagenham Council from Labour and Bexley from the Tories at the May local elections. uncertain
it → struggle → elections
During Sir Keir’s premiership, Mr Farage appeared to be heading to No10. asserted
Farage → appear → No10
But with Reform and its leader facing a growing storm over financial allegations, the latest poll showed the party now getting 123 seats, down 188 from a year ago, and behind the Conservatives on 130. asserted
party → face → 130
Such an outcome would make it very hard to form a stable Government as it would require several parties to work together to get a Commons majority, over 325. asserted
it → make → 325
The results could also change dramatically as 37% of the constituencies were decided by margins of five points or less. uncertain
% → change → points
* The polling uses data from nearly 17,000 Britons in fieldwork from 23 August to 18 September 2026 asserted
polling → use → September
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