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Labour conference is being stalked by snap election rumours despite Andy Burnham declaring the idea 'dead'.
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idea → see → rumours
Another megapoll has suggested the party's position has significantly improved as the gathering in Liverpool begins.
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gathering → suggest → Liverpool
The More in Common research found that if the country voted currently Labour would have 250 MPs, some 140 more than the firm estimated in July.
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firm → find → July
The Tories are now seen coming in close behind on 125.
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Tories → see → 125
Although Labour would still be well short of a Commons majority if the poll was reflected at a real election, they could govern with support from the Lib Dems' 63 MPs and 27 from the SNP.
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they → reflect → SNP
The prospect of such a 'rainbow coalition' has caused alarm on the Right, with fears Mr Burnham could offer major concessions such as a fresh Scots independence referendum.
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Burnham → cause → referendum
Accounting for tactical voting, Labour could secure an extra 25 seats, according to More in Common.
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Labour → account → Common
That would mean it could have a majority solely with backing from the Lib Dems.
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it → mean → Dems
More in Common research found that if the country voted currently Labour would have 250 MPs, some 140 more than the firm estimated in July
Mr
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firm → find → July
Burnham used a marathon round of pre-conference broadcast interviews on Friday to say he was 'knocking dead' rumours of an election before 2029
Those dynamics could mean Reform falling to 117 seats, and being leapfrogged by the Tories on 132.
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Reform → use → 132
Gambling on a ballot now would be a massive risk for the PM, with the Government currently holding an historic majority and nearly three years left in the Parliament.
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Government → gamble → Parliament
Advocates of the idea hope that Labour would improve its position during a campaign.
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Labour → hope → campaign
Mr Burnham used a marathon round of pre-conference broadcast interviews on Friday to say he was 'knocking dead' rumours of an election before 2029.
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he → use → 2029
Speaking to the BBC in Liverpool this morning he suggested a social care plan will need to be in place before a ballot, as he is determined to put one in the manifesto.
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he → speak → manifesto
The More in Common research uses the 'MRP' technique of mapping poll findings on to the demographic characteristics of individual areas.
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research → use → areas
Nearly 16,000 adults were interviewed between August 21 and September 21.
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adults → interview → August
Luke Tryl, More in Common's UK Director, said: 'On the eve of last year's Labour Party Conference, our MRP projected Reform could get close to a three figure majority, while both Labour and the Conservatives dropped to below triple figures.
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Labour → say → figures
Fast forward to today, and it is clear the electoral landscape has transformed dramatically with Andy Burnham as Prime Minister.
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landscape → transform → Minister
However, he highlighted that 'volatility has become the new watch word of our electoral system', with almost half of the seats estimated to be won on margins of less than 5 per cent.
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half → highlight → cent
The snapshot reflects a shift in support for parties since Mr Burnham became PM
A year ago Reform were seen as on track for a landslide victory
'
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Reform → reflect → victory
The other clear message of these numbers is that tactical voting, of the sort we have already seen play out in by-elections, could have an outsized impact on the numbers – giving a Lib-Lab coalition the numbers for a majority and allowing the Tories to leapfrog Reform,' Mr Tryl added.
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Tryl → see → Reform
Mr Tryl said the poll suggested Mr Burnham was 'sensible' to rule out an early election.
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Burnham → say → election
'While Labour is off its death bed, the party's recovery is far from complete,' he said.
'To call a poll the Prime Minister would have had to be willing to risk the careers of scores of his colleagues including his Chancellor and Foreign Secretary, while even small shifts in the current numbers would have left him vulnerable to having a stint in Downing Street only longer than that of Liz Truss.'
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shifts → say → Truss
The Aporia
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