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Andy Burnham 'turns back' Zack Polanski's Green tide in London with Labour to get 52 MPs, says poll

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Cecil, N. (2026, September 28). Andy Burnham 'turns back' Zack Polanski's Green tide in London with Labour to get 52 MPs, says poll. Evening Standard. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/andy-burnham-labour-conference-london-mps-stop-green-party-poll-b1298582.html

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Evening Standard · collected 2026-09-28 · by Nicholas Cecil

Quick Summary

A recent MRP survey by More in Common predicts that Labour will retain 52 of its 59 MPs in London, significantly reducing the impact of the Green Party's surge in support since May’s local elections. The poll indicates that despite challenges from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and the Greens, who are expected to win no seats, Labour’s performance is bolstered by strong support for Andy Burnham, potentially staving off a significant loss of MPs compared to earlier projections. Labour would still lose seven seats in London but fare better than previously predicted, with key wins anticipated in constituencies like Kensington and Bayswater and Finchley and Golders Green.
Written by AI on 2026-09-28, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

A poll by More in Common predicts that Andy Burnham's Labour party will retain 52 out of 59 seats in London during an upcoming election. The poll indicates a limited impact for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which is expected to win only one seat amidst growing financial allegations the party denies. Despite strong support shown in May local elections, the Green Party is projected to fail to secure any MPs. Previous surveys had suggested the Greens could win up to 21 seats in London. Sammy McDonald from More in Common notes that while Labour currently has a lead over the Greens, challenges remain for Labour's marginal seats and progressive voter consolidation in Inner London, particularly in Holborn and St Pancras. The poll also reveals that Labour will still lose seven seats compared to their performance in the July 2024 general election.

Written for “British Politics Polls” on 2026-11-01, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 British Politics Polls
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 32% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Evening Standard
Hedges 5 of 15 claims Outlet record 65/100
“The articles discuss different by-elections and polls with distinct outcomes involving various political parties, not the same specific incident.”
Evening Standard
Hedges 2 of 25 claims Outlet record 65/100
“Article A discusses Zack Polanski's campaign strategy and optimism in a specific by-election, while Article B reports on a poll predicting the outcome of general elections for London seats, showing a different scenario for the Green Party.”
BBC News
Hedges 4 of 18 claims Outlet record 68/100
“Article A discusses Andy Burnham's stance on calling an early election, while Article B reports on a poll about Labour's performance in London against other parties.”
Evening Standard
Hedges 1 of 19 claims Outlet record 65/100
“Article A discusses Labour's improved polling nationally, while Article B focuses on a specific poll about London that mentions Andy Burnham's impact on local elections, indicating different occurrences.”
The Guardian
Hedges 2 of 29 claims Outlet record 66/100
“Article A reports on Andy Burnham's announcement of a new homes scheme at the start of the Labour party conference, while Article B discusses a poll indicating Labour's performance relative to other parties in London.”
South China Morning Post
Hedges 0 of 4 claims Outlet record 64/100
“Article A reports on the UK Labour Party's conference launch under Andy Burnham, while Article B discusses a poll about London election results.”
The Guardian
Hedges 5 of 29 claims Outlet record 66/100
“Article A discusses Andy Burnham's impact at the Labour party conference, while Article B reports on a poll predicting Labour's performance in London elections.”
BBC News
Hedges 2 of 16 claims Outlet record 68/100
“Article A reports on a poll showing Labour's retention of MPs and the Green party failing to win any, while Article B discusses Polanski urging voters to support Greens to influence Labour policies. These are different events.”
Evening Standard
Hedges 3 of 15 claims Outlet record 65/100
“Article A discusses a specific candidate selection and identity politics within Labour, while Article B covers a poll predicting election outcomes for various parties in London.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 5 of 51 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of political polling and trends without clearly reporting on the exact same incident or time.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
19
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
32%
6 of 19 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
65/100
Evening Standard's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-28 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Evening Standard · 7995 article(s) · 66 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 66 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Nicholas Cecil
93 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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🔮 The full impact of John Healey’s first Budget on London may only become clear in coming days.
2026-10-28 · mixed framing · Budget 2026: Biggest winners and losers in London
🔮 In what is a huge boost for the capital, John Healey announced that City Hall will be allowed to spend a proportion of income tax and retain some business rates.
🔮 The Office for Budget Responsibilty has upgraded its economic growth forecast to 1.2% this year, Mr Healey said, followed by 1% next year, 1.6% in 2028, 1.8% in 2029, 1.7% in 2030 and 1.6% in 2031.
🔮 Inflation creeping up will only have exacerbated this grim outlook.
🔮 Tax rises will almost certainly hit the capital hardest given that it is the wealthiest region of Britain.
🔮 Ms Rayner’s warm words came as the next mayoral contest, due to take place in 2028, was already starting to take shape. However, other Labour figures seen as possible challengers to be the party’s candidate include Tottenham MP David Lammy, Tooting MP Rosena Allin-Khan, as well as Steve Reed, MP for Streatham and Croydon North.
🔮 Business rates cut The move would mean thousands of high-street shops, cafes, pubs and other small businesses would no longer have to pay business rates.
🔮 Inflation creeping up will only have exacerbated this grim outlook.
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Also by Nicholas Cecil
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 93 articles by Nicholas Cecil →

Topics

Greens Labour London More in Common Reform UK

Subjects

Labour ORG · 7× London GPE · 4× Greens ORG · 3× Burnham PERSON · 2× More in Common ORG · 2× Reform ORG · 2× Reform UK ORG · 2× The Liberal Democrats ORG · 2× MRP ORG · 1× Nigel Farage’s PERSON · 1×

Narrative

The MRP survey by More in Common showed Labour retaining 52 of its 59 MPs in the capital as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is also limited to just one seat after he and his party were hit with growing financial allegations, which they deny.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-28
🔮 The Greens would fail to win any MPs despite the surge of support for them at the May local elections, the poll suggests.

Claims (19 extracted, 6 hedged)

The MRP survey by More in Common showed Labour retaining 52 of its 59 MPs in the capital as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is also limited to just one seat after he and his party were hit with growing financial allegations, which they deny. asserted
they → show → which
The Greens would fail to win any MPs despite the surge of support for them at the May local elections, the poll suggests. uncertain
poll → fail → elections
Some previous surveys have suggested the Greens could win as many as 21 seats in London. uncertain
Greens → suggest → London
Sammy McDonald, of More in Common, said: “The ‘Burnham bounce’ in London may have held back the Green challenge for now. uncertain
bounce → say → challenge
“But the challenges to Labour’s marginal seats across the capital, and the progressive challenge across Inner London, remain.” asserted
challenges → remain → London
He added: “Holborn and St Pancras will be a high-stakes test of Labour’s ability to consolidate progressive voters in the capital, or, if they lose, re-open the party to challenge across the map from the Greens. asserted
they → add → Greens
“The Green Party are in second place in 21 seats across the capital and could still benefit if Burnham’s hold on the Left falters.” uncertain
hold → benefit → Left
Labour would stlll be down seven seats in the capital, compared to the July 2024 general election. asserted
Labour → compare → election
But it was set to lose 11 MPs, according to the survey in the summer. uncertain
it → set → summer
The poll shows Labour holding on in Kensington and Bayswater, and Finchley and Golders Green against the Tories. asserted
Labour → show → Tories
They would win Chelsea and Fulham, Hendon, Cities of London and Westminster, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Bexleyheath and Crayford, all from Labour. asserted
They → win → Labour
The July poll had Reform gaining five MPs in the city. asserted
Reform → have → city
Defence Secretary Wes Streeting would lose his Ilford North seat to an independent, according to the poll. uncertain
Streeting → lose → poll
The survey is MRP research (multi-level regression and post-stratification) which is based on large-scale polling of sections of society and extrapolating to get constituency level results. asserted
which → base → results
So, it does not take into account the impact of individual MPs or other local factors. asserted
it → take → MPs
Jeremy Corbyn would keep his Islington North seat. asserted
Corbyn → keep → seat
The Liberal Democrats would retain their current six constituencies in south west London. asserted
Democrats → retain → London
Reform UK would win 147 seats, the Conservatives 125 and the Liberal Democrats 63. asserted
Democrats → win → seats
Such a result would be a dramatic shift from the July poll when Reform was projected to win 293 seats and Labour just 110. asserted
Labour → project → seats
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