Farm-state Republicans have coalesced around a new winning message for November: a federal ban on American companies exporting diesel around the world.
asserted
Republicans → coalesce → world
Resurrecting the 1970s’ failed energy policies would be a disaster and replicate a COVID-19-level shock to global supply chains.
asserted
Resurrecting → resurrect → chains
It’s no secret that Republican strategists are getting increasingly worried about polls from middle America.
asserted
strategists → ’ → America
Ohio is upside down, Iowa is a toss-up, and Kansas has entered the peripheral.
asserted
Kansas → enter → peripheral
A warmed-over Jimmy Carter-era economic policy isn’t the silver bullet to save the Republican Party’s electoral chances just 40 or so days out from the midterm elections.
asserted
policy → warm → elections
Despite the promises of cheaper gas prices, history tells a different story.
asserted
history → tell → story
Export controls did not solve the energy crisis of the 1970s.
asserted
controls → solve → 1970s
Price controls and trade restrictions made shortages worse, distorted investment, and taught the world that American energy policy could change on a dime.
uncertain
policy → make → dime
Repeating that experiment with diesel, the fuel that moves harvests, freight, and factories, would not deliver cheaper diesel in Iowa by Election Day.
asserted
that → repeat → Day
American refineries produce around 5 million barrels of diesel every day.
asserted
refineries → produce → diesel
We consume around 3.5 million barrels of diesel a day.
asserted
We → consume → diesel
The remainder doesn’t disappear into thin air.
asserted
remainder → disappear → air
We sell it across the world.
asserted
We → sell → world
Furthermore, pipelines and energy infrastructure can’t be built overnight.
asserted
pipelines → build → ?
The majority of diesel is produced in the Midwest and Gulf Coast region.
asserted
majority → produce → region
An export ban would maroon diesel where it is already plentiful and not necessarily where it is needed.
asserted
it → maroon → diesel
The United States does not possess the infrastructure to store the domestic diesel supply indefinitely nor distribute it across the country, thanks in part to the Jones Act.
asserted
States → possess → Act
Production would either decrease or, even worse, the market could flash back to COVID-19’s negative West Texas Intermediate moment, when sellers had to pay buyers to take WTI off their hands.
uncertain
sellers → decrease → hands
The same lesson applies to politicians looking for catchy slogans to win a few votes before a contentious election.
asserted
lesson → apply → election
Diesel is priced in a world market.
asserted
Diesel → price → market
Diesel prices already reflect what buyers in Europe, Latin America, and Asia will pay for it.
asserted
buyers → reflect → it
Removing America’s supply from the world market will have a catastrophic impact.
asserted
Removing → remove → impact
Unilaterally disarming our diesel exports would remove 20% of the world’s traded overseas diesel supply, essentially overnight, and devastate global supply chains that increasingly rely on American energy exports to fuel the world’s economy.
asserted
that → disarm → economy
Refineries across the world would shift to producing more diesel at the expense of other petroleum products, such as car and jet fuel, thus driving up costs for everyone.
asserted
Refineries → shift → everyone
Prices would naturally rise, and uncertainty over whether diesel will be where it’s needed, when it’s needed, would skyrocket and likely tank the stock market.
asserted
it → rise → market
It would also strengthen Russia’s hand.
asserted
It → strengthen → hand
If the U.S. cuts off its diesel exports to Europe, many nations will return to funding Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war machine to simply avoid freezing this winter.
asserted
nations → cut → machine
Banning diesel exports would open yet another front in the trade wars that have already devastated American farmers, this time with Mexico.
asserted
that → ban → Mexico
The U.S. exports more than 76 million barrels of diesel to Mexico every year.
asserted
U.S. → export → Mexico
This adds up to almost half of all the diesel Mexico consumes.
asserted
Mexico → add → diesel
Cut this off overnight, and Mexico will respond by not buying American produce.
asserted
Mexico → cut → produce
There will be another trade war in the Western Hemisphere, with America’s farmers paying the price.
asserted
farmers → pay → price
An atrophied Congress has allowed the executive branch to walk all over it for almost two decades.
asserted
branch → allow → decades
Weeks out from the midterm elections, the legislative branch again looks to the executive branch for government intervention rather than exercising the power the Founding Fathers entrusted to it.
asserted
Fathers → look → it
A diesel ban won’t save Republicans’ bacon in the Midwest.
asserted
ban → save → Midwest
It may even make the midterm elections worse.
uncertain
elections → make → ?
The Aporia
