On September 23, fighting escalated dramatically in Ethiopia's Tigray region.
asserted
fighting → escalate → region
Tigrayan forces seized three local airports and the conflict spread into the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara, according to reports.
uncertain
conflict → seize → reports
Both sides have accused the other of starting the escalation.
asserted
sides → accuse → escalation
The renewed fighting poses a major challenge to the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the previous Tigray war.
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that → renew → war
This is where Eritrea becomes crucial.
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Eritrea → become → ?
Martin Plaut, a British journalist specializing in the Horn of Africa, noted that the US needs Eritrea in the struggle to secure the Red Sea against the Houthis, an Iran-backed Shiite Muslim militia.
asserted
US → specialize → Houthis
Plaut argues that removing sanctions gives new political weight to one of Africa's most repressive regimes.
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removing → argue → regimes
As fighting resumes in Tigray, Eritrea could once again become a decisive military player.
uncertain
Eritrea → resume → Tigray
Plaut said the current tensions had the potential of developing into a broader regional confrontation, which, he said, "is the most serious danger."
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he → say → confrontation
In his view, the administration of US President Donald Trump has already made a strategic calculation.
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administration → make → calculation
"Trump has now mended fences with Eritrea and has lifted sanctions against Eritrea" in an effort to reduce the threat posed by the Houthis and secure the Red Sea, said Plaut.
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Plaut → mend → Sea
A striking coincidence of timing
The escalation in Tigray came only days after Washington removed key Eritrean entities and individuals from its sanctions list.
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Washington → come → list
On September 18, the United States allowed the national emergency underpinning its Ethiopia-related sanctions regime to expire.
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emergency → allow → regime
The Treasury Department subsequently removed a number of Eritrean individuals and entities from its sanctions list, including senior financial official Hagos Ghebrehiwet and the Red Sea Trading Corporation.
asserted
Department → remove → Ghebrehiwet
The measures had originally been imposed in 2021 in connection with the Tigray war.
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measures → impose → war
US officials have not described the move as an endorsement of Eritrea, nor has Washington publicly said that it struck a deal with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki.
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it → describe → Afwerki
But it removes a layer of pressure on a government whose strategic importance has grown as security around the Red Sea deteriorates.
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security → remove → Sea
"It is happening at a time when the war on Iran is ongoing," he told DW.
asserted
he → happen → DW
"The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked for some time, and now the Bab el-Mandeb on the Red Sea, where Eritrea is located — this may give Eritrea some advantage to establish a meaningful relationship with the US.
uncertain
this → block → US
Why Eritrea matters
Eritrea controls a long coastline opposite Yemen.
asserted
Eritrea → matter → Yemen
Its southern port of Assab lies close to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world's most important maritime waterways.
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port → lie → waterways
Moses Okello, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa, said the regional context has fundamentally changed since the previous Tigray war.
asserted
context → say → war
"In 2020, the concern was the TPLF [Tigray People's Liberation Front] versus the Ethiopian National Defense Force [ENDF]," he told DW.
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he → tell → DW
So this changes the strategic value of not just the Eritrean coast, but the entire Red Sea waterway."
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this → change → coast
But the bargain carries risks.
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bargain → carry → risks
Eritrean forces also fought alongside Ethiopian federal troops during the 2020-22 Tigray war.
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forces → fight → war
And the economic impact of lifting sanctions may be more limited than the political symbolism suggests.
uncertain
symbolism → lift → sanctions
"Lifting the sanctions may not make a huge difference on the ground," said Sayed.
uncertain
Sayed → lift → ground
"Eritrea is not a trade hub [nor does it have] a well-established trading relationship with the outside world.
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it → have → world
It's actually a closed country.
asserted
It → close → ?
Ethiopia heads back toward war
The latest fighting did not emerge from nowhere.
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fighting → head → war
On September 21, seven Ethiopian armed and political groups announced an alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
asserted
groups → announce → government
The coalition includes the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army.
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coalition → include → TPLF
Some members were on opposing sides during the 2020-22 Tigray war.
asserted
members → oppose → war
It remains unclear how closely the alliance's members will coordinate militarily.
uncertain
members → remain → ?
The alliance brings together groups with very different histories that share opposition to the federal government.
asserted
that → bring → government
Two days later, fighting escalated in Tigray.
asserted
fighting → escalate → Tigray
Tigrayan forces seized airports and fighting spread into neighboring regions.
asserted
fighting → seize → regions
The TPLF has said federal forces attacked first; Addis Ababa has said the TPLF launched the offensive.
asserted
TPLF → say → offensive
The renewed fighting has raised questions about the durability of the 2022 Pretoria agreement.
Could Eritrea intervene?
uncertain
Eritrea → renew → agreement
…and 32 more, not listed.
The Aporia
