Explainer-Why new war in Ethiopia’s Tigray threatens to trigger wider conflict
asserted
war → threaten → conflict
Regional forces in northern Ethiopia's Tigray on Wednesday seized control of three airports and clashed in multiple locations with federal troops, signalling the start of a major offensive after months of growing tensions.
asserted
forces → seize → tensions
The move shatters a peace deal that ended the 2020-2022 conflict between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal forces, and comes amid a backdrop of deteriorating ties between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Sudan's civil war, tensions over Red Sea access, and the Horn of Africa being dragged into Middle East conflicts.
asserted
Horn → shatter → conflicts
WHY DOES NEW FIGHTING IN TIGRAY THREATEN A WIDER WAR IN ETHIOPIA?
asserted
FIGHTING → threaten → ETHIOPIA
The Pretoria Agreement, which formally ended a conflict that killed hundreds of thousands of people, has been under strain for months, each side accusing the other of violating the deal.
asserted
side → end → deal
The peace process began to unravel after splits emerged within the TPLF, and a hardline faction of the party reasserted control over the region, kicking out an interim administration.
Most recently, the TPLF formed an alliance with six other armed groups from across Ethiopia, including former enemies from the war, aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
It is not clear how many members of the alliance were involved in clashes on Wednesday but Ethiopia is home to many heavily armed regional groups.
asserted
Ethiopia → begin → groups
Abiy's government has accused Eritrea of financially backing members of the alliance, allegations Asmara has denied.
asserted
Asmara → accuse → allegations
WHAT ROLE WILL ERITREA PLAY?
asserted
ERITREA → play → ROLE
As the situation unfolds, all eyes will be on Asmara, which has endured a turbulent relationship with Addis Ababa since independence in 1993.
asserted
which → unfold → 1993
Soon after coming to power, Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending two decades of hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
asserted
Abiy → come → Ethiopia
When the civil war erupted the following year, Eritrean forces then supported Ethiopia's federal army.
asserted
forces → erupt → army
Relations have deteriorated since the Pretoria peace agreement, which Eritrea was not party to despite having fought in the war.
asserted
Eritrea → deteriorate → war
Landlocked Ethiopia had a coastline for decades until Eritrea broke away.
asserted
Eritrea → have → decades
Since then, Addis Ababa has repeatedly argued that restoring access to the sea - specifically the port of Assab - is vital for its long term security and economic development.
asserted
access → argue → security
Asmara has said it fears Addis Ababa will try to take Assab by force.
asserted
Ababa → say → force
Earlier this month, the US government lifted sanctions on Eritrean Defense Forces and other entities.
asserted
government → lift → Forces
It is not clear what impact removing sanctions would have on any conflict in Ethiopia, but the move is seen as a nod by the Trump administration to Eritrea’s strategic coastline opposite Saudi Arabia, and warning Ethiopia not to go to war with Asmara.
WHICH REGIONAL RISKS RAISE THE STAKES THIS TIME AROUND?
Diplomats warn that a renewed Tigray war would no longer be a largely isolated Ethiopian conflict.
asserted
war → remove → STAKES
Instead, it would unfold as the Horn of Africa faces its most volatile security environment in years, with war raging in Sudan, persistent instability in Somalia, tensions over the Nile and expanding war and geopolitics from the Middle East spilling into the region.
asserted
war → unfold → region
Ethiopia has been accused of backing the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group, which is fighting Sudan’s army in one of the world’s deadliest conflicts.
asserted
which → accuse → conflicts
This support, which Ethiopia denies, is in line with its close relationship with the United Arab Emirates, the most active Gulf power in the region which UN experts say is also supporting the RSF.
asserted
experts → deny → RSF
The UAE has denied the accusations.
asserted
UAE → deny → accusations
For its part, Eritrea is closer to Sudan and has cultivated relatively close ties with Egypt, which is a long-time rival of Ethiopia.
asserted
which → cultivate → Ethiopia
Egypt and Sudan both see Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, built on a tributary of the Nile, as a serious threat to their vital water supplies.
asserted
Egypt → see → supplies
The Aporia
