California’s explosive billionaire tax battle is tightening dramatically just weeks before voters decide whether to slap the state’s wealthiest residents with a one-time 5% levy on their fortunes.
asserted
voters → tighten → fortunes
A new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found Proposition 40 clinging to a razor-thin advantage among likely voters — with 45% supporting the measure, 42% opposed, and a potentially decisive 13% still undecided.
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% → co → measure
That marks a noticeable slide from six weeks earlier, when the poll found 48% backing the proposal and 41% against it.
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% → mark → it
The shift comes amid a massive advertising war over the measure, which has become one of the most closely watched fights on California’s packed Nov. 3 ballot.
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which → come → ballot
Proposition 40 would impose a one-time tax equal to 5% of the net worth of billionaires who were California residents as of Jan. 1, 2026.
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who → impose → Jan.
The measure is designed primarily to raise money for healthcare programs amid anticipated federal funding cuts, with additional revenue earmarked for education and food assistance.
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revenue → design → education
But the tax has triggered fierce pushback and opponents have poured huge sums into the campaign.
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opponents → trigger → campaign
Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll, said voters appear concerned about economic inequality while remaining wary of an unprecedented tax targeting assets rather than simply income.
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voters → say → income
“When you’re going about taxing the billionaires’ assets, I mean that’s something kind of new and different, and it’s risky, and the governor’s against it,” DiCamillo told the Times, adding that many voters are approaching the proposal cautiously.
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voters → go → proposal
One California businessman is warning the measure could send wealthy residents racing for the exits.
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measure → warn → exits
Eric Schiffer, chairman of family office Patriarch and CEO of Reputation Management Consultants, told Fox Business he believes its passage would create a “giant sucking sound” of entrepreneurs leaving California.
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passage → tell → California
Schiffer, who said he works with billionaire clients, argued that some wealthy residents could decide the Golden State is no longer worth the price.
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State → say → clients
“Why would anyone stay if they have spent their life building wealth that they were already taxed on?” he told the outlet.
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he → stay → outlet
The proposed tax is also facing competition from two other ballot propositions that could effectively derail it.
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that → propose → it
Proposition 42, which would restrict taxes on certain forms of personal property and limit retroactive taxation, currently has 43% support, 34% opposition and roughly 23% undecided, according to the Berkeley poll.
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which → restrict → poll
About 37% of likely voters support it, 33% oppose it and 30% remain undecided.
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% → support → it
Both could have major implications for Proposition 40.
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Both → have → Proposition
While the billionaire levy is fighting for every vote, another measure targeting affluent Californians appears to be on more comfortable footing.
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measure → fight → footing
Proposition 3 would make permanent an existing income-tax increase on high earners that currently helps fund schools and healthcare.
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that → make → schools
The tax, originally approved in 2012 and scheduled to expire in 2031, applies to individuals earning at least $360,000 annually.
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tax → approve → 360,000
The stronger reception for Proposition 3 highlights a key distinction confronting voters — extending an existing income tax versus creating a new levy on billionaire wealth.
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reception → highlight → wealth
The wealth tax has attracted national attention and enormous political spending, while exposing divisions among prominent California Democrats.
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tax → attract → Democrats
The California Democratic Party has endorsed Proposition 40, while Gov. Gavin Newsom opposes it, citing concerns about its potential long-term effects on state finances.
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Newsom → endorse → finances
The Aporia
