Xavier Becerra may have a commanding lead in California’s gubernatorial race, but voters don’t seem particularly excited about him.
uncertain
voters → have → him
Becerra, the former President Joe Biden administration health secretary, leads Republican Steve Hilton by 18 points among likely voters, 54% to 36%, according to a new Politico-UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research poll.
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Becerra → lead → poll
But just 44% of likely voters view Becerra favorably, suggesting his lead is driven at least in part by California’s deep Democratic lean rather than broad enthusiasm for the nominee.
asserted
lead → view → nominee
Even among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, Becerra’s numbers are hardly overwhelming, with 18% viewing him unfavorably.
“This is rather tepid, even among Democrats,” Jon Cohen, founder and CEO of TrueDot, whose firm fielded the poll, said.
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firm → lean → poll
The numbers come as Becerra tries to move past a bruising primary in which billionaire Tom Steyer and other candidates spent millions attacking his record and image.
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Steyer → come → record
Becerra had been polling in the single digits for much of the primary before surging after Eric Swalwell’s campaign collapsed amid allegations of sexual misconduct and assault.
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campaign → poll → misconduct
Swalwell resigned from Congress and exited the race after becoming the leading Democratic contender.
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Swalwell → resign → race
Becerra emerged as the establishment alternative.
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Becerra → emerge → alternative
He was the experienced, predictable candidate in a primary marked by political newcomers, controversy, and chaos.
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He → mark → newcomers
The 68-year-old Sacramento resident brings decades of public service to the race, including time in the California Assembly, 24 years representing Los Angeles in Congress, a stint as California attorney general, and a Cabinet post.
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resident → bring → general
Yet he has struggled to generate the kind of campaign energy that his Republican opponent has.
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opponent → struggle → that
Hilton, a former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron and former Fox News host, has campaigned exhaustively across the state, held town halls and news conferences, and built a campaign centered on California’s high cost of living, homelessness, crime, drugs, human trafficking, healthcare for illegal immigrants, and gas prices.
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Hilton → campaign → immigrants
Hilton has also benefited from a more energetic campaign presence.
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Hilton → benefit → presence
His events have often been crowded and boisterous, while Becerra has faced criticism for maintaining a relatively low profile since the June primary.
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Becerra → face → primary
Becerra pledged in August to participate in multiple debates before the Nov. 3 election, and the two candidates are scheduled to meet Sept. 30 in a nationally televised CNN debate.
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candidates → pledge → debate
Still, Hilton has his own favorability problem.
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Hilton → have → problem
Fifty-five percent of likely voters view him unfavorably in the Politico-Citrin poll, compared with 44% for Becerra.
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percent → view → Becerra
Lukewarm feelings toward both candidates reflect broader dissatisfaction with California’s political leadership.
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feelings → reflect → leadership
Fifty-three percent of likely voters disapprove of Gov. Gavin Newsom, while 68% disapprove of President Donald Trump’s performance.
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% → disapprove → performance
To California voters, “there’s no heroes out there,” Jack Citrin, a UC Berkeley political science professor and codirector of the poll, said.
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Citrin → ’ → poll
Another recent Berkeley poll offered Becerra somewhat better news.
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poll → offer → news
The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies found 48% of likely voters viewed him favorably, while 40% viewed him unfavorably.
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% → find → him
That same poll showed Becerra leading Hilton 58% to 33%, a 25-point advantage heading into the final weeks of the campaign.
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Becerra → show → campaign
The competing polls point to the same basic reality: Becerra is in a strong position, but his personal popularity remains less imposing than his margin over Hilton.
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popularity → compete → Hilton
For Hilton, the challenge is turning voter dissatisfaction with California’s direction into support for a Republican candidate in a state that has not elected a Republican statewide since 2006.
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that → turn → 2006
For Becerra, the challenge is converting a commanding lead into genuine enthusiasm for his candidacy.
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challenge → convert → candidacy
The Aporia
