Intensified fighting between Ethiopia’s federal army and forces from the northern region of Tigray has raised fears that the peace agreement that ended a devastating two-year war in 2022 could collapse.
uncertain
that → raise → 2022
The escalation came days after seven armed groups from across Ethiopia formed a new alliance which seeks to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, with each side of the conflict blaming the other for instigating the latest flare-up in violence.
asserted
side → come → violence
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bombing → boycott → people
The immediate fear for many in the country is a return to the war they have spent nearly four years trying to recover from.
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they → spend → years
Here is what we know.
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we → know → what
How did Ethiopia reach this point?
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Ethiopia → reach → point
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, began as an armed movement against Ethiopia’s military government in the 1970s.
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Front → begin → 1970s
It later became the dominant force in the coalition that governed Ethiopia for nearly three decades.
asserted
that → become → decades
That influence was contentious in a country with many ethnic groups, where Tigrayans account for only about 6 percent of Ethiopia’s population.
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Tigrayans → account → population
When Abiy became prime minister in 2018, he created the Prosperity Party to replace the governing coalition, sharply reducing the TPLF’s influence at the centre of government.
asserted
he → become → government
Relations between Abiy’s government and the TPLF deteriorated until war broke out in November 2020.
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war → deteriorate → November
Federal troops, Eritrean forces and some fighters from the neighbouring Amhara region fought against Tigrayan forces.
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troops → neighbour → forces
The conflict killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions and left Tigray largely cut off from the outside world.
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conflict → kill → world
A peace agreement signed in Pretoria, South Africa, in November 2022 ended the full-scale war.
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agreement → sign → war
But it did not settle some of the disputes that had helped fuel it.
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that → settle → it
What has driven the renewed fighting?
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What → drive → fighting
One of the deepest disputes concerns western Tigray.
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One → concern → Tigray
Fighters from the neighbouring Amhara region, who fought alongside Ethiopia’s federal army during the 2020-2022 war, took control of western Tigray.
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who → neighbour → Tigray
Hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans were driven from their homes, and Tigrayan leaders now want the territory returned and those displaced to be allowed to return to their homes.
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those → drive → homes
Many in Amhara reject Tigray’s claim to the territory, however.
uncertain
Many → reject → territory
They argue that western Tigray should not have been incorporated into Tigray when Ethiopia’s regional boundaries were redrawn in 1992, after the fall of the military government.
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boundaries → argue → government
That dispute is ongoing, even though the TPLF and the Amhara Fano National Movement have now joined the same alliance against Abiy Ahmed’s government.
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TPLF → join → government
The federal government also says Tigrayan forces have retained weapons they were meant to surrender.
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they → say → weapons
Tigrayan leaders, in turn, say the government has failed to secure the withdrawal of other forces or enable displaced people to return home, particularly to western Tigray.
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government → say → Tigray
The political arrangements made after the war have also broken down.
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arrangements → make → war
The TPLF faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael retook control of Tigray’s administration earlier this year, displacing an interim administration established under the peace agreement.
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faction → lead → agreement
“Since the end of the war, while the Pretoria Agreement has held, there have been consistent violations on both sides,” Jervin Naidoo, a senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, told Al Jazeera.
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Naidoo → hold → Jazeera
He said Tigrayans remained aggrieved over western Tigray, the presence of outside forces and the region’s autonomy.
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Tigrayans → say → forces
The government sees the TPLF differently.
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government → see → TPLF
Naidoo said it would portray the group as “a belligerent group trying to destabilise Ethiopia”.
asserted
it → say → Ethiopia
But for Tigrayan leaders, he said, renewed fighting could be presented as a matter of protecting their region.
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fighting → say → region
The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival was announced this month by seven armed movements.
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Alliance → announce → movements
Its largest members include the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA).
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members → include → TPLF
It also includes groups from Ethiopia’s Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz areas.
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It → include → areas
They have different aims and histories, but share a stated objective – to remove Abiy’s government.
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They → have → government
Their agreement marks a striking reversal of the alliances formed during the last war, with Fano fighters who fought alongside federal troops against the TPLF now fighting alongside the TPLF.
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who → mark → TPLF
The Pretoria agreement helped reshape those relationships.
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agreement → help → relationships
It ended the war between Addis Ababa and the TPLF, but Eritrea and Amhara forces, which had supported the government, were not parties to it.
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which → end → it
Both later fell out with Abiy’s government.
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Both → fall → government
The alliance extends beyond northern Ethiopia.
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alliance → extend → Ethiopia
…and 28 more, not listed.
The Aporia
