If Labor suffers a shock catastrophe at the next federal election, there’s a good chance this will have been the inflection point.
asserted
this → suffer → election
Yes, things have been going south for a while.
asserted
things → go → while
We’ve seen the declining polling numbers for the government, and for Anthony Albanese himself – the former most recently hitting the party’s lowest point since 2012.
asserted
former → see → 2012
One Nation’s support is now baked in, and is beginning to nibble away at Labor’s margins having already sacked the Coalition’s fortresses.
asserted
support → bake → fortresses
For all that, though, when it comes to actual seats in the parliament, Labor has found itself in a protective cocoon of sorts.
asserted
Labor → come → sorts
If the events of this week play out a certain way, that cocoon could be vulnerable.
uncertain
cocoon → play → week
I’m not just speaking of the fact that interest rates reached a 15-year high this week.
asserted
rates → speak → high
Or that this news was followed by still-high inflation figures that raise the very real prospect of another rate rise in November.
asserted
that → follow → November
All this compounds the economic pain of this era, perhaps sends things to a tipping point, making the time ripe for further One Nation advances.
asserted
time → compound → advances
But the wildcard, the thing that sets this week apart, is on Labor’s other political flank, where the Greens installed David Shoebridge as leader, replacing Larissa Waters, who stepped down for health reasons.
asserted
who → set → reasons
We don’t talk much about the Greens these days, which itself is telling.
asserted
which → talk → Greens
These are meant to be times of economic hardship and political upheaval, of the major parties in disrepute and the people in revolt.
asserted
These → mean → revolt
In France, often polling in second place after the far right is the New Popular Front: a coalition of communists, socialists and environmentalists.
asserted
Front → poll → communists
In the United Kingdom, the Greens roughly doubled their vote in the past two years before receding through the middle of this year.
asserted
Greens → double → year
In the United States, the signal case is Zohran Mamdani, whose ascent to New York mayor presaged a suite of victories in Democrat primaries by democratic socialists and fellow travellers.
asserted
ascent → presage → socialists
In that view, Waters might be able to point to certain legislative achievements – on investor taxes, on national environmental laws, on native forest protections – but she never grabbed us by the throat.
uncertain
she → point → throat
This complaint often overlooks what came before: specifically that the Greens took hard lines and ran sustained campaigns on economically populist ideas, such as rent freezes, throughout the last term.
asserted
Greens → overlook → term
They did this in a cost of living crisis and persisted right through a cost of living election.
asserted
They → do → election
Then they lost all but one of their lower-house seats.
asserted
they → lose → seats
Their most pugnacious performer, Max Chandler-Mather, who led the charge on housing, lost his seat of Griffith.
asserted
who → lead → Griffith
I suppose it’s possible they got this strategy exactly wrong.
asserted
strategy → suppose → ?
That they were obstructionist when people wanted solutions, and constructive when they wanted revolt: that the Greens zigged when they should have zagged.
asserted
they → want → revolt
Certainly, that seems to be Shoebridge’s view.
asserted
that → seem → ?
His opening salvo has been to pledge to “replace” Labor, not “reform” or work with it.
asserted
salvo → pledge → it
He blamed Labor for the rise of One Nation.
asserted
He → blame → Nation
He declared war on the “1 per cent” and lambasted “incremental politics”.
asserted
He → declare → politics
That’s self-consciously radical.
asserted
That → ’ → ?
He didn’t mention Mamdani, but he was certainly evoking him.
asserted
he → mention → him
Mamdani seems a generational talent: an insurgent, perhaps, but an extremely charming and likeable one.
asserted
Mamdani → seem → ?
He comes with no accumulated baggage, no hardened impressions.
asserted
He → come → baggage
Also unlike the Greens, he is attempting to remake a party of government from within, not displace it from without.
asserted
he → attempt → it
And again, unlike the Greens, Mamdani arrived with Donald Trump at the levers of power, not One Nation sitting entirely outside of it.
asserted
Nation → arrive → it
The Australian multi-party situation doesn’t map easily onto the American one, but if we must draw parallels, it’s more like when an unpopular Biden administration was in charge.
asserted
administration → map → charge
And in that period, the democratic socialist movement was idling, not surging.
asserted
movement → idle → period
Now, he seems to have bumped his head on a ceiling roughly where the Australian Greens are.
asserted
Greens → seem → ceiling
Polanski had the advantage of being a new quantity, not a known one.
asserted
Polanski → have → advantage
As he has become more known, gravity has taken hold.
asserted
gravity → become → hold
And perhaps that points to the Greens’ greatest challenge: that in an anti-establishment moment, they come across as part of the establishment.
asserted
they → point → establishment
They signed agreements with prime minister Julia Gillard, helped install a carbon tax and currently hold the balance of power in the Senate (again).
asserted
They → sign → Senate
When they behave moderately, they are part of the system.
asserted
they → behave → system
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
