ATLANTA (AP) — Republicans once saw Georgia and North Carolina as promising pieces of their strategy to keep control of the Senate.
asserted
Republicans → see → Senate
But hopes of winning the two states have been fading, and the GOP is increasingly focused on playing defense elsewhere with five weeks until the midterm elections.
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GOP → win → elections
Republicans haven’t abandoned the Southern battlegrounds, which President Donald Trump carried narrowly in 2024, though they are shifting greater resources to states they see as more competitive.
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they → abandon → states
The party now is spending heavily to defend reliably Republican Texas, and Trump is planning to campaign for the Republican incumbent in Ohio, both places the president won easily in 2024.
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president → spend → 2024
Some Republicans also have become more vocal in their complaining that Trump has squandered an opportunity to more comfortably hold off Democrats this fall.
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Trump → become → Democrats
Among their grievances, they say the president failed to bring the unpopular war in Iran to a close, has dismissed the pinch of high fuel prices and engaged late in the midterm campaigns.
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president → say → campaigns
And though Democrats must still win several seats Republicans hold to win back the majority, the GOP is looking more at protecting seats they already hold than picking up Georgia, and they are signaling serious problems in North Carolina.
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they → win → Carolina
“There is a Republican turnout problem due to the administration’s failure to address the economic concerns of voters,” North Carolina Republican strategist Paul Shoemaker said of the state’s U.S. Senate race.
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Shoemaker → be → race
GOP Senate leaders look beyond Georgia
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leaders → look → Georgia
Republican Senate campaign leaders are looking past Georgia businessman Mike Collins’ challenge of first-term Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff to states they viewed as more competitive to focus future spending, according to two Republican Senate campaign sources familiar with Senate leadership’s thinking.
uncertain
they → look → thinking
The sources spoke on condition of anonymity to share internal discussions.
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sources → speak → discussions
Ossoff has swamped the successful trucking company executive in fundraising.
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Ossoff → swamp → fundraising
Collins has also struggled to broaden his support beyond Georgia’s Republican base.
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Collins → struggle → base
“He just doesn’t have what it takes to beat Ossoff,” said Tim Waters, Peach County Republican Party chair.
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Waters → have → Ossoff
“It’s hard enough trying to beat an incumbent, and you have the president of the same party in a tough midterm, right?
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you → ’ → midterm
I don’t think he’s got much of a shot.”
Republicans had viewed Georgia early in the 2026 campaign as a potential firewall, should Democrats win in a critical number of states where Republican seats are on the ballot.
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seats → think → ballot
Democrats must win a net of four seats to win back the majority.
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Democrats → win → majority
But Ossoff has already spent $57 million in advertising and had $13 million reserved through the election, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
uncertain
million → spend → firm
And while outside groups aligned with Collins had spent more than $52 million, AdImpact shows, Collins’ campaign confirmed it had no advertising time immediately reserved.
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it → align → time
Tillis is among the NC Republicans warning about Senate race
Retiring Republican North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis stopped short of suggesting GOP candidate Michael Whatley’s chances of holding the seat for the party had vanished, but implied it was time to take a hard look at how long to continue spending heavily against Democratic former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper.
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it → warn → Cooper
“We’ve got to place our bets on the candidates that are the best run, either ahead or within striking distance,” Tillis told reporters Monday in the Capitol.
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Tillis → get → Capitol
“You’ve got to change your posture going into the last — we’ve got 36 days.”
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we → get → days
Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, has been a darling of Trump, who campaigned for him this month.
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who → campaign → him
But enthusiasm for Trump seems to have fallen even with a number of Republicans who voted for him, said Shoemaker, a Tillis adviser.
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Shoemaker → seem → him
Trump narrowly won North Carolina in 2024.
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Trump → win → 2024
“The blue-collar, working-class voters that Donald Trump brought to the Republican Party is the one that’s being most impacted by higher energy prices, and it’s dampened their enthusiasm to turn out and vote,” Shoemaker said.
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Shoemaker → work → enthusiasm
Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate GOP’s leadership super PAC, had $19.5 million in advertising booked in North Carolina, having spent $30.4 million to date.
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Fund → have → date
“Do I think Roy Cooper is going to win the race?
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Cooper → think → race
I absolutely do,” said Michele Woodhouse, former Republican chair for North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District and a devout Trump supporter.
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Woodhouse → do → District
“Roy Cooper, for Republicans, is the worst Democrat candidate who could be running for this seat,” Woodhouse said.
uncertain
Woodhouse → run → seat
“He’s never lost in a statewide race.
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He → lose → race
He’s very popular.”
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He → ’ → ?
Senate GOP PAC spends heavily in Texas as Trump heads for Ohio
In Texas, where Democrats have not won a Senate election since 1988, Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund is spending more than it is in any of the states it set out to defend early in the year.
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it → spend → year
The group this month pumped more than $100 million into advertising in Texas to back up state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in a race viewed as very competitive.
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who → pump → race
Trump endorsed Paxton over four-term incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary.
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Trump → endorse → primary
GOP campaign leaders considered Paxton a potential drain on Republican resources because he has for years faced legal, ethical and personal questions.
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he → consider → questions
They include a felony indictment, impeachment charges and extramarital affairs, though Paxton was never convicted.
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Paxton → include → indictment
Senate GOP leaders had suggested Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., would carry a good portion of the advertising load after Paxton beat Cornyn in the May GOP Senate runoff.
uncertain
Paxton → suggest → runoff
Neither the National Republican Senatorial Committee nor SLF had included spending on Texas in its midterm budget.
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Committee → include → budget
As of Monday, MAGA Inc., has committed more than $20 million to ads supporting Paxton so far this month, compared with the $124 million from SLF.
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Inc. → commit → SLF
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
