Although President Donald Trump is not on the ballot this Election Day, he has consistently urged the electorate to act as if he were.
asserted
he → urge → electorate
Indications suggest Tuesday’s midterms will indeed serve largely as a referendum on his performance over the past two years.
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midterms → suggest → years
Historical precedent, polling, and early voting figures point to a potentially difficult night for Trump's Republican Party, though the political map and redistricting could cap Democratic gains.
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map → point → gains
Voters are seeking change, according to the AP Voter Poll, which indicates nearly three-quarters feel "angry" or "dissatisfied" with the country's current direction.
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quarters → seek → direction
Most blame the administration for high inflation, with about 6 in 10 stating elevated prices are "more because of Trump’s policies" rather than "more because of factors outside Trump’s control."
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prices → blame → control
Additionally, roughly 70% of voters want Congress to offer stronger checks and balances on the presidency.
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Congress → want → presidency
Democrats hope to capture majorities in the House and Senate to curb Trump's authority after two years of minimal pushback from a compliant Republican-led Congress.
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Democrats → hope → Congress
Key gubernatorial races are also being decided.
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races → decide → ?
More than 59 million Americans cast early ballots ahead of Tuesday, with many more expected at polling places.
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Americans → cast → places
Amid concerns from watchdog organizations that Trump and his allies might disrupt the process, Democrats and nonpartisan groups have deployed tens of thousands of trained volunteers to observe voting locations.
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Democrats → disrupt → locations
Here's what we're watching Tuesday:
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we → watch → what
Trump said: ‘Pretend I'm on the ballot.'
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I → say → ballot
What do voters say?
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voters → say → What
The Republican president is trying to defy history, which shows that in almost every modern midterm election the party in the White House has lost seats in Congress — sometimes many of them.
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party → try → them
Democrats certainly hope that's the case this year.
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that → hope → ?
The party is optimistic, given Trump's dismal approval ratings and voter concerns about the war with Iran and the surging price of gas and other daily necessities.
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party → give → gas
The AP Voter Poll, an expansive survey of the electorate, suggests most are deeply unhappy with Trump, with roughly 6 in 10 saying they disapprove of how he’s handling the presidency.
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he → suggest → presidency
About 4 in 10 say the economy is the most important issue facing the country, while 3 in 10 say the most important issue is democracy, according to the poll, well above the number who said the same about crime, healthcare and immigration.
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who → say → crime
Trump is betting that his base of white working-class voters, which fueled his presidential victories in 2016 and 2024, can save his Republican allies if they show up in great numbers.
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they → bet → numbers
Heading into Election Day, however, there are signs that Democrats are more fired up to vote against him and his party.
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Democrats → head → him
We're about to learn whether Trump and his coalition are still strong enough to stave off a political beatdown.
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Trump → learn → beatdown
Specifically, look to see whether Hispanic and Black voters and younger people who swung toward Trump two years ago now rebuke him.
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who → look → him
The answer will have huge implications in the midterms and the next presidential cycle.
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answer → have → midterms
Can Democrats win both chambers of Congress?
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Democrats → win → Congress
It doesn't happen often.
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It → happen → ?
Since World War II, the House and Senate have flipped from one party to the other in the same midterm just three times: 1946, 1994 and 2006.
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House → flip → midterm
The common thread when it does happen is an electorate clamoring for change or broad frustration with the sitting president.
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it → happen → president
This year has both, and Democrats are trying to capitalize on the opportunity.
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Democrats → have → opportunity
Strategists in both parties believe Democrats are on track to win a majority in the House, where Republicans began the current Congress with a slim margin of 220-215.
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Republicans → believe → 220
Democrats are targeting more than 60 districts, including many where Trump won by double digits.
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Trump → target → digits
But between redistricting and the deep partisan divide between metropolitan and rural America, there simply aren't as many competitive races as there were in some previous years when the House flipped, including 2018, when Democrats netted 40 more seats.
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Democrats → be → seats
Early tells could be Pennsylvania's 1st District, where Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is trying to hold his suburban Philadelphia seat; Florida's redrawn 22nd and 25th Districts, both of which were supposed to be Republican pickups after redistricting this spring; Virginia's 2nd District rematch between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democratic former Rep. Elaine Luria; and Virginia's 1st District, where Democrat Shannon Taylor, a local prosecutor, is challenging Republican Rep. Rob Wittman.
The Senate, meanwhile, is up for grabs.
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Senate → try → grabs
Republicans currently have a 53-47 advantage.
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Republicans → have → advantage
To net the four seats that Democrats need to take control, they must win states that Trump won.
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Trump → net → that
Early East Coast results could offer clues.
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results → offer → clues
Democrat Roy Cooper is favored to flip an open North Carolina seat, and Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is widely expected to win reelection in Georgia.
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Ossoff → favor → Georgia
If one or both of those outcomes don't happen, or if the margins are razor-thin, it could forecast a stronger-than-expected Republican performance elsewhere.
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it → happen → performance
Will Trump interfere?
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Trump → interfere → ?
It's a question not usually asked in U.S. politics.
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It → ask → politics
The world is watching to see whether the president leverages the vast resources of the federal government to interfere with the election.
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president → watch → election
…and 26 more, not listed.
The Aporia
