Victory for separatist Parti Québécois would present a new political test for Carney
Keeping Team Canada united could become harder even if a referendum is delayed
There is an immediate political test looming for Prime Minister Mark Carney and his government as early as Monday — one that has not been on the political radar federally for more than a decade.
uncertain
that → present → decade
And it's one that does not seem to be front and centre of the federal agenda yet.
asserted
that → seem → agenda
This week has so far seen the expansion of an LNG plant on the West Coast and the referral of a high-speed rail strategy in Alberta to the Major Projects Office.
asserted
week → see → Office
It is widely expected the West Coast pipeline will be designated a project of national interest to speed the approval process along.
asserted
pipeline → expect → process
The prime minister is banking on these projects to grow the Canadian economy, but also help deal with the very real political challenges in the West.
asserted
minister → bank → West
That includes, of course, the Oct. 19 Alberta referendum on whether the province should start a process to leave Canada.
asserted
province → include → Canada
But before that, Quebec will choose a new government.
asserted
Quebec → choose → government
Public opinion polling shows it is likely that the Parti Québécois will win, with the party now closing in on majority territory.
asserted
party → show → territory
The last time Quebec had a sovereignist government was 2014 when Premier Pauline Marois's PQ was voted out after less than two years in office.
asserted
PQ → have → office
In fact, you have to go all the way back to the last Quebec election I covered, in 2003, when Bernard Landry tried to pick up the mantle of Lucien Bouchard and promised a referendum if he had the "mortal certainty" he would win it.
asserted
he → have → it
Landry lost that election to Quebec Liberal Leader Jean Charest.
asserted
Landry → lose → Charest
The current PQ leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has promised not to hold a referendum until after Donald Trump is no longer president, citing the volatility of that administration and how it could impact results.
But federal leaders should not mistake that decision for lack of commitment to the sovereignist cause.
uncertain
leaders → promise → cause
In fact, St-Pierre Plamondon says he remains optimistic despite what most polls show, namely that only 30 per cent of Quebecers are interested in a referendum at all.
asserted
cent → say → referendum
In the last debate of the campaign, St-Pierre Plamondon pointed to something former premier and PQ leader Jacques Parizeau would say: "We shouldn't be afraid of democracy."
asserted
We → point → democracy
It is not just the real threat of a referendum — that will become a contentious issue should the Parti Québécois pull off a victory.
asserted
Québécois → become → victory
Ottawa will also have to be prepared for a more aggressive stance from the PQ leader.
asserted
Ottawa → have → leader
"I think it is difficult to find more evident declines and reversals than over the past 10 years," St-Pierre Plamondon said in an editorial board interview this week with La Presse.
asserted
Plamondon → think → Presse
"It is not referendums that are to blame for the decline of French, the decline in our demands for health transfers and that of immigration, that has been sabotaged by the federal government."
All premiers and provinces fight for their jurisdictions and to get more from Ottawa.
asserted
premiers → blame → Ottawa
But only one of them will make those demands elected with the mandate to hold a referendum on independence.
asserted
demands → make → independence
Nearly a quarter of Quebec voters cast advance ballots for Oct. 5 election
- Platform Tracker
asserted
quarter → cast → election
Compare the promises of Quebec’s major parties in the 2026 election
Case in point for what awaits Carney's government: as premier, St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to get rid of an intergovernmental affairs minister.
asserted
Plamondon → compare → minister
Instead he would have a minister of independence, tasked with making gains for Quebec.
asserted
he → have → Quebec
In an era where working as Team Canada has been key to the response to the trade war with the United States, that team may now become fractured and more difficult to manage.
uncertain
team → work → States
Polls suggest Carney's popularity remains high across Canada, including in Quebec, which also happens to be his political power base — holding 44 of the 78 ridings.
asserted
which → suggest → ridings
But his ability to manage the country through a crisis and prove to Quebec it is a valued part of the federation without giving further fodder to a no longer dormant separatist movement is about to be tested in real time.
asserted
it → manage → time
The Aporia
