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One demographic is ‘ripping the heart out of Trump’s presidency,’ pollster warns

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Sommerlad, J. (2026, September 30). One demographic is ‘ripping the heart out of Trump’s presidency,’ pollster warns. The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-midterms-voter-demographics-maga-b3058901.html

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The Independent · collected 2026-09-30 · by Joe Sommerlad

Quick Summary

CNN data analyst Harry Enten warns that President Donald Trump is losing support among white non-college-educated voters, who were crucial to his previous election victories. According to Enten’s analysis, Trump's approval rating with this demographic has dropped by 27 points since the last presidential race, now standing at negative territory compared to rival Kamala Harris. This shift, driven largely by dissatisfaction with economic issues like inflation, is described as "ripping the heart out of" Trump's presidency and could mirror previous Republican presidents' losses in midterm elections due to voter disenchantment.
Written by AI on 2026-09-30, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

CNN's data analyst Harry Enten warned on CNN News Central that President Donald Trump is losing support among white, non-college-educated voters, who were previously his main base of support. This demographic shift is described as "ripping the heart out" of Trump’s presidency ahead of the midterms. Two years ago, Trump was 25 points ahead with this group compared to Kamala Harris, but now he has slipped into negative territory with them. Despite losing ground among these key voters, Trump maintains a 98% approval rating with MAGA die-hard supporters, whose support remains largely unchanged over the past two years.

Written for “Trump Presidency Criticism” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Trump Presidency Criticism
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 10% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans strongly right Hedges 1 of 43 claims Outlet record 70/100
“Article A discusses the overall theme and pitch for midterm elections, while Article B focuses on a specific demographic shift among white non-college-educated voters ahead of the midterms. Although related, they describe different aspects of the election scenario.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans strongly left Hedges 2 of 37 claims Outlet record 66/100
“Article A discusses the declining support for Donald Trump among his most fervent supporters, while Article B focuses on a pollster's analysis of white non-college-educated voters deserting Trump ahead of midterms. The articles cover related themes but describe different specific occurrences.”
Daily Mail
Hedges 3 of 62 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different aspects related to President Trump's declining support, but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
The Independent
Hedges 4 of 19 claims Outlet record 59/100
“While both articles discuss Trump's disapproval ratings, they cover different aspects and times — one focuses on overall disapproval ahead of midterms, while the other highlights a specific demographic shift warned by Harry Enten.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
21
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
10%
2 of 21 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
59/100
The Independent's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-30 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Independent · 3563 article(s) · 9 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 9 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Joe Sommerlad
66 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 A fresh round of polling data in the final hours before Election Day shows Democratic candidates leading virtually every battleground state that will likely determine which party controls the Senate.
🔮 President Donald Trump is set to deliver his “closing argument” to midterm voters at the iconic Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington, D.C. - a site dogged by the administration’s botched repair job.
🔮 During a joint appearance on Fox 2 Detroit, Dingell said she had talked to Stevens on Saturday and been assured she was not about to change horses, only for Stevens to do precisely that, while McMorrow noted that the latter’s fiance had publicly backed Rogers and suggested he might have influenced her decision.
🔮 The immigration agency, which answers to the Department of Homeland Security, paid $495.6 million in August for the vacant Prairie Correctional Facility in small-town Appleton in response to President Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration on the assumption that more holding space for inmates would be needed.
🔮 “It could be quite a brutal evening,” one senior Republican strategist told Politico.
🔮 Pope Leo XIV has registered to vote in next week’s midterms and will become the first pontiff ever to cast a ballot in an American election if he submits his ballot, according to a report.
🔮 Vivek Ramaswamy's controversial attack ad featuring the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Dr. Amy Acton, is off the air after the Republican spent about a quarter of what his campaign initially said it would invest to run it.
🔮 DOGE placed a particular emphasis on removing “DEI” employees – meaning people supposedly hired in the interests of promoting diversity, rather than on merit – and a planning guide cited singled out 225 offices for closure and described how their staff might by removed via firings, administrative leave or reassignment.
🔮 “If Mary MacLeod ever said, ‘My son Donald is a liar and he lied about his opponent and other things’, I would say the press would be getting Pulitzer Prizes if they reported it,” Trump hypothesized.
🔮 Brown, who had made history as the Air Force’s first African American chief of staff, had been in the post for 16 months and had expected to continue his term until the fall of 2027.
Also by Joe Sommerlad
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 66 articles by Joe Sommerlad →

Topics

CNN CNN News Central Independent Republican the United States

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 8× Enten PERSON · 7× Republican NORP · 3× Donald Trump PERSON · 2× Donald Trump’s PERSON · 2× MAGA ORG · 2× The Independent ORG · 2× the United States GPE · 2× CNN ORG · 1× Independent ORG · 1×

Narrative

The analyst concluded that the economy was the reason for the demographic’s disaffection with Trump, suggesting they had “decided to give [him] a second chance” because they had lost faith in Joe Biden’s stewardship of the economy – and now appear to feel his successor has proven no better.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-30
🔮 However, Trump himself posted a clip of Enten on Truth Social Tuesday in which he could be seen marveling at how solid his support is with MAGA die-hards, with whom he retains a 98 percent approval rating, down just one percent in two years, their faith seemingly unshakeable.

Claims (21 extracted, 2 hedged)

President Donald Trump is being deserted by white non-college-educated voters ahead of the midterms, a phenomenon that is “ripping the heart out” of his presidency, according to CNN’s data analyst Harry Enten. uncertain
that → desert → analyst
Speaking to John Berman on CNN News Central Tuesday, Enten was asked why the president had promised a new $15 billion steel plant in Iowa Monday. asserted
president → speak → Iowa
“The target group of voters is white, non-college voters,” he answered. asserted
he → answer → voters
And right now, the heartland is ripping the heart out of Donald Trump’s presidency.” asserted
heartland → rip → presidency
Enten pointed out that, two years ago, he was 25 points up on presidential rival Kamala Harris but is now on just -2. asserted
he → point → -2
“He’s now in the negative with white non-college voters!” he said. asserted
he → ’ → voters
“He’s in the negative territory with a group of voters that fueled his three presidential bids and allowed him to win a second term in the White House back in 2024. asserted
him → ’ → 2024
“We’re talking a drop here with the key core group of Donald Trump’s presidential campaigns, of 27 points away from the president of the United States. asserted
We → talk → States
No wonder he’s so low.” asserted
he → ’ → ?
Asked how the situation compared with other presidents, Enten said that Trump is “more reliant on white non-college voters than any previous Republican president, and now he’s at the lowest of any Republican president, at this point in his second term among white non-college voters.” asserted
he → ask → voters
He said that neither George W Bush nor Ronald Reagan nor Dwight D Eisenhower was as dependent on the group as Trump “and now even they have turned on him.” asserted
they → say → him
Enten added that Bush had lost the House of Representatives and the Senate in his second-term midterms “in large part because a lot of voters who had previously been voting Republican decided to vote Democratic.” asserted
who → add → Democratic
The analyst concluded that the economy was the reason for the demographic’s disaffection with Trump, suggesting they had “decided to give [him] a second chance” because they had lost faith in Joe Biden’s stewardship of the economy – and now appear to feel his successor has proven no better. asserted
successor → conclude → economy
“Oh my goodness gracious!” Enten said as he flashed up a graphic showing Trump’s approval rating on inflation with the group sliding from 24 points to -39. asserted
group → say → -39
“That’s a change of 63 points in the wrong direction, on the key issue that got Donald Trump re-elected to a second term, among the key group that got him re-elected,” he said. asserted
he → ’ → group
Enten’s broadcasts have often made for uncomfortable viewing for the president in recent months, with the analyst last week presenting a 50 percent job disapproval rating for him and commenting: “They don’t just dislike him. asserted
They → make → him
However, Trump himself posted a clip of Enten on Truth Social Tuesday in which he could be seen marveling at how solid his support is with MAGA die-hards, with whom he retains a 98 percent approval rating, down just one percent in two years, their faith seemingly unshakeable. uncertain
faith → post → years
The same excerpt was also played by Jesse Watters on Fox News in a segment headed: “No cracks in the MAGA wall.” asserted
excerpt → play → wall
The White House has similarly pointed The Independent towards a recent Economist/YouGov poll highlighting his ongoing popularity among his base, which found 91 percent approval among MAGA voters, 79 percent among Republicans generally and 75 percent among people who voted for him in 2024. asserted
who → point → 2024
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told The Independent: “No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement, and the president understands how to communicate with them.” asserted
president → tell → them
He characterized November’s vote as a clear choice between “doubling down on President Trump’s winning, commonsense agenda or the Democrats’ extreme liberal policies and obstruction.” asserted
He → characterize → agenda
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