The Aporia · Parts of Victoria could see three months’ worth of rain as storms forecast for Australia’s south-east

Parts of Victoria could see three months’ worth of rain as storms forecast for Australia’s south-east

Read the original at The Guardian ↗

Cite

APA MLA Chicago

Stock, P. (2026, October 1). Parts of Victoria could see three months’ worth of rain as storms forecast for Australia’s south-east. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/oct/01/melbourne-sydney-canberra-rain-forecast-australia-weather-this-week

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Quick Summary

Severe weather is forecast to hit southeastern Australia starting Thursday, with Victoria expected to receive heavy rainfall. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, parts of Gippsland and other regions could see up to 150mm of rain, equivalent to three months' worth of precipitation in some areas. Melbourne will likely experience between 30 to 50mm of rain, while flood watches are active for various parts of Victoria. Thunderstorms and damaging winds may affect coastal Victoria on Friday and Saturday. Canberra and Sydney could also face rainfall and storms over the weekend, though conditions should improve by Sunday for the NRL grand final kickoff.

Written by AI on 2026-10-01, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Heavy rains began hitting southeastern Australia, particularly Victoria, starting on Thursday, September 26. The Bureau of Meteorology predicted that most areas in Victoria would receive 25-50mm of rain over several days, with some regions like Gippsland and the Otway Ranges expecting up to 150mm, equivalent to one to three months' worth of rainfall. Melbourne experienced its wettest day since April 2024, recording up to 50mm in a single day, causing flash flooding and trapping vehicles under bridges. The rain was part of a weather event following the second-driest September on record for many areas, with Melbourne receiving only 18mm last month but seeing 20mm fall within an hour on Thursday afternoon. Conditions are expected to worsen over the weekend, potentially leading to more flooding and severe thunderstorms in Gippsland and northeastern parts of Victoria, prompting warnings from emergency services not to drive through floodwaters.

Written for “Southeast Australia Floodingstorms” on 2026-11-04, grounded in this article and the 3 other(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 54% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.

48-hour deluge flattens crops as farmers prepare for harvest Different event

ABC News (AU)

Hedges 2 of 26 claims Outlet record 67/100

“The articles describe different weather systems affecting different regions (Western Australia vs. South-Eastern Australia) at distinct times.”

South-east faces flooding, storms after second-driest September on record Same event

ABC News (AU)

Hedges 10 of 24 claims Outlet record 67/100

Dairy farm flooded, but grain growers rejoice as Victoria settles in for wet weekend Same event

ABC News (AU)

Hedges 4 of 25 claims Outlet record 67/100

Qld's mostly sunny long weekend could descend into severe storms Different event

ABC News (AU)

Hedges 4 of 26 claims Outlet record 67/100

“The articles describe different geographical regions (Victoria and southern parts of Queensland) experiencing storms at slightly different times.”

Melbourne’s wettest day in two years traps drivers, with more rain to come Different event

The Sydney Morning Herald

Hedges 3 of 19 claims Outlet record 61/100

“Article A describes a broader forecast for southeast Australia, while Article B focuses specifically on Melbourne's wettest day in two years with more detailed rainfall figures.”

Rain records broken across Victoria with soggy start to October Different event

The Sydney Morning Herald

Hedges 1 of 13 claims Outlet record 61/100

“Article A forecasts heavy rain, while Article B reports on record-breaking rainfall that has already occurred.”

How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted

sentences that state something as happening or true

Uncertain

54%

7 of 13 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")

Leaning

not political

takes no side on a contested political question

Publisher signals

66/100

The Guardian's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.

Outlets on this story

Environment

Same framing elsewhere

articles that frame the event the way this one does

Analyzed 2026-10-01 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability

Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Guardian · 2929 article(s) · 6 correction(s) detected

Running correction rate · 6 correction(s)

2026-10-19

Mother assessed as posing no immediate risk to others three weeks before Elizabeth Struhs’ manslaughter, inquest hears

2026-10-14

Rachel Smith will turn 39 in prison. The high court says she could freeze her eggs from behind bars

2026-10-03

Tennessee’s top prison official resigning after botched execution of Christa Pike

2026-10-01

Tennessee governor suspends all executions after Christa Pike’s lethal injections fail

2026-09-28

Extra 1,000 prison beds announced in NSW as union warns against arresting ‘our way out of domestic violence’

2026-09-05

Australia’s housing prices are trending down. See which suburbs have had the biggest falls

Who wrote this

Petra Stock

8 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction

🔮 Hogarth said grey-headed flying foxes usually gave birth to one young per year, so the loss of so many pups would have a “terrible ripple effect” for the species.

2026-10-13 · assertive framing · Flying foxes in NSW and Victoria face mass starvation amid food shortages

🔮 This could be the result of “misadventure” or “curiosity”, or due to ill health, as appeared likely for the animal in Clarence River, which looked “extremely unwell”.

2026-10-05 · mixed framing · Authorities issue shark warning over whale that swam 11km upstream in Clarence River and later died

🔮 Widespread rain and thunderstorms are forecast to drench south-eastern Australia from Thursday, with the heaviest falls expected across Victoria.

2026-10-01 · speculative framing · Parts of Victoria could see three months’ worth of rain as storms forecast for Australia’s south-east

🔮 A small uncrewed vessel has embarked on a lap around Antarctica and may not return for months.

2026-09-25 · assertive framing · ‘Robust little’ vessel begins treacherous 22,000km journey around Antarctica in the name of climate science

🔮 Angus Taylor has vowed to repeal a raft of emissions reduction and renewable energy policies, including several measures supported by or introduced under past Coalition governments, within a month of being elected prime minister, prompting accusations he would “let climate change rip”.

2026-09-23 · assertive framing · Angus Taylor pledges to repeal swathe of climate policies, saying ‘Australia has done its bit’

🔮 Had they won, the trophy would have gone “straight to the pool room”, Cavanagh said.

2026-09-20 · assertive framing · The gunzels’ grand final: Melbourne Tramaroos’ campaign derails at European TramDriver Championship

🔮 That could include wildlife-friendly lighting and noise reduction measures, as well as habitat features, like swallow shelves or possum boxes.

2026-09-05 · assertive framing · Possums in the roof, koalas in bed: study shows how animals resort to Australian homes after habitat loss

Also by Petra Stock

Flying foxes in NSW and Victoria face mass starvation amid food shortages

2026-10-13 · The Guardian

‘Catastrophic wildfire loop’ created after colonisation left parts of Australia more at risk from bushfires, study finds

2026-10-07 · The Guardian

Authorities issue shark warning over whale that swam 11km upstream in Clarence River and later died

2026-10-05 · The Guardian

‘Robust little’ vessel begins treacherous 22,000km journey around Antarctica in the name of climate science

2026-09-25 · The Guardian

Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

All 8 articles by Petra Stock →

Topics

Australia New South Wales South Australia Sydney Victoria

Subjects

Victoria PERSON · 6× Sydney GPE · 3× Australia GPE · 2× Gippsland GPE · 2× NRL ORG · 2× Narramore PERSON · 2× New South Wales GPE · 2× South Australia GPE · 2× Dean Narramore PERSON · 1× the Bureau of Meteorology ORG · 1×

Narrative

The two systems would combine into a slow-moving low over Victoria, eastern South Australia and New South Wales, bringing widespread storms and dumping large amounts of rain.

framing: speculative · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-01

🔮 Widespread rain and thunderstorms are forecast to drench south-eastern Australia from Thursday, with the heaviest falls expected across Victoria.

2026-10-01 · The Guardian

Parts of Victoria could see three months’ worth of rain as storms forecast for Australia’s south-east · speculative framing

Claims (13 extracted, 7 hedged)

Widespread rain and thunderstorms are forecast to drench south-eastern Australia from Thursday, with the heaviest falls expected across Victoria. asserted

falls → forecast → Victoria

A trough moving east across South Australia was expected to combine with a low pressure system moving through the Great Australian Bight on Thursday, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. uncertain

trough → move → Meteorology

The two systems would combine into a slow-moving low over Victoria, eastern South Australia and New South Wales, bringing widespread storms and dumping large amounts of rain. asserted

systems → combine → rain

Most of Victoria could expect rainfall totals of 25-50mm over the coming days, according to Dean Narramore, a senior meteorologist at the bureau. uncertain

Most → expect → bureau

Widespread rain was already developing across western and southern Victoria, he said, which would “ramp up” and spread throughout the state on Friday. asserted

which → develop → Friday

Parts of Gippsland, as well as the central, eastern and Otway ranges regions, could experience rainfalls exceeding 100mm – and some areas could record up to 150mm. uncertain

areas → experience → mm

“That’s equivalent to one to two months of rainfall, maybe even three months’ worth of rain, in any areas that get 150mm,” Narramore said. asserted

Narramore → ’ → mm

Melbourne would also be “quite wet”, with 30 to 50mm of rain expected to fall over the coming days, Narramore said. asserted

Narramore → expect → days

Thunderstorms were also expected, along with the potential for damaging winds in coastal areas of Victoria on Friday and Saturday, according to the BoM. It was an appropriate start to October, coinciding with the beginning of Australia’s peak thunderstorm season, which continues into January. uncertain

which → expect → January

Canberra and Sydney could also expect rain and storms on Saturday, as the weather system moved across New South Wales. uncertain

system → expect → Wales

“Showers and storms are likely to impact the entire Sydney basin, with the potential for accumulated rainfall totals in the vicinity of 50mm in some suburbs due to a combination of persistent showers and localised downpours during thunderstorms,” according to Anthony Sharwood at Weatherzone. uncertain

Showers → impact → Weatherzone

However, the wet and potentially stormy weather was expected to clear in time for the kickoff of Sunday’s NRL grand final, he said. asserted

he → expect → final

“The morning and early afternoon could see a lingering shower in parts of Sydney, but as the day goes on, a drying trend will set in, creating near-perfect conditions for a fast flowing game of NRL footy.” uncertain

trend → see → footy