The Aporia
The Straits Times. (2026, October 1). Lula leads Bolsonaro by 3 points in Brazil runoff scenario, Datafolha poll shows. The Straits Times. https://www.straitstimes.com/world/lula-leads-bolsonaro-by-3-points-in-brazil-runoff-scenario-datafolha-poll-shows
The Straits Times. “Lula leads Bolsonaro by 3 points in Brazil runoff scenario, Datafolha poll shows.” The Straits Times, 1 Oct. 2026, https://www.straitstimes.com/world/lula-leads-bolsonaro-by-3-points-in-brazil-runoff-scenario-datafolha-poll-shows.
The Straits Times. “Lula leads Bolsonaro by 3 points in Brazil runoff scenario, Datafolha poll shows.” The Straits Times, October 1, 2026. https://www.straitstimes.com/world/lula-leads-bolsonaro-by-3-points-in-brazil-runoff-scenario-datafolha-poll-shows.
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In a simulated runoff scenario for Brazil's upcoming presidential election, Datafolha poll shows that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads his main challenger, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, by 3 points with 48% compared to 45%. The survey, conducted between September 29 and October 1, included responses from 2,506 people. This poll is consistent with a previous one where Lula had 47% against Bolsonaro's 45%, indicating a tight race within the margin of error of 2 percentage points. In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 42% followed by Bolsonaro at 38%. If no candidate wins more than 50% in the initial round on October 2, a runoff between the top two candidates is set for October 25.