- Published
Brazilians are voting on Sunday in a general election in which the two front-runners for the presidency bear very familiar names.
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runners → publish → names
The incumbent, veteran left-wing leader Luíz Inácio Lula da Silva, will be challenged by 11 candidates, the most prominent of whom is right-winger Flávio Bolsonaro.
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prominent → challenge → whom
In the last election four years ago, Lula narrowly defeated Flávio Bolsonaro's father Jair, but the tumultuous aftermath of the election, which saw Jair Bolsonaro convicted of plotting a coup after thousands of his supporters stormed the Brazilian Congress, has had a lasting impact on the nation's political life and this election.
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thousands → defeat → life
Here's what you need to know.
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you → need → what
The man not on the ballot
Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing former army captain who governed Brazil from 2019 to 2023, will not be running for president in this election.
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who → govern → election
Not only is the 71-year-old barred from standing for office, he is also serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after he lost the 2022 election to Lula.
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he → bar → Lula
Due to recurrent health problems, he is currently under house arrest rather than in a cell, but he has had restrictions imposed on him prohibiting him from posting on social media or making public statements.
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he → have → statements
Despite these restrictions, his shadow - and sometimes his moving and talking image - looms large over this election.
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shadow → move → election
At the event where Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched his presidential campaign, an AI-generated avatar of Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son's candidacy.
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avatar → launch → candidacy
When pressed by the Supreme Court about the deepfake, Jair Bolsonaro's lawyers may have denied he had given his permission for its use, but there is nevertheless little doubt that Flávio Bolsonaro has the backing of his father.
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Bolsonaro → press → father
What do the polls say?
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polls → say → What
While there are 12 candidates running for the presidency, there are only two who have reached double figures in the opinion polls, and they are Luíz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro.
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they → be → polls
BBC Brasil's poll tracker shows them both hovering around the 40% mark, with Lula slightly ahead of Bolsonaro.
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Lula → show → Bolsonaro
The other 11 candidates are polling at 4% or less.
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candidates → poll → %
If none of the candidates gains 50% of valid votes in the first round on 4 October, the top two contenders will proceed to a run-off election on 25 October.
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contenders → gain → October
The opinion polls suggest a run-off is highly likely - but with a relatively high number of voters still undecided just days before the election, an outright win cannot be entirely ruled out.
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win → suggest → election
BBC Brasil's poll aggregator suggests that at the end of September, 9% of voters were either still undecided, or planning to spoil their ballot, cast a blank ballot or not go to the polls at all.
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% → suggest → polls
Brazilians who are 16 years of age or older are entitled to vote and it is compulsory for those aged between 18 and 70 who are literate, with a fine imposed on those who do not cast a ballot.
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who → entitle → ballot
Almost 160 million Brazilians are eligible to vote in this election and, with polls typically surveying just thousands of people, the end result can differ considerably from the indications given by surveys.
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result → vote → surveys
What does Lula stand for?
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Lula → stand → What
He served two consecutive terms - from January 2003 to December 2010 - and was widely praised for lifting millions out of poverty during this time with the help of a cash-transfer programme called Bolsa Família.
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He → serve → programme
The former metalworker left office with record approval ratings of over 80%, but his party was later rocked by huge corruption scandals.
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party → leave → scandals
Lula himself spent more than 18 months in prison between 2018 and 2019 after being convicted of corruption and money laundering, charges he has always denied.
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he → spend → corruption
Those convictions were annulled in 2021, leaving Lula free to run for the presidency in the 2022 election, in which he beat Jair Bolsonaro by 1.8 percentage points.
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he → annul → points
When he started his third term in office, he vowed it would be his last, and yet his party endorsed him as their candidate again this year, even though he will turn 81 later this month.
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he → start → candidate
There is no doubt he remains a towering figure in the left.
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he → be → left
But while his supporters described him ahead of the 2022 election as the "saviour of the Amazon", praising his commitment to protecting the rainforest, some environmentalists have been critical of some of his recent actions.
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environmentalists → describe → actions
His support for exploratory oil drilling in offshore waters near the mouth of the Amazon in particular has drawn criticism.
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support → draw → criticism
Lula insists that he remains committed to eventually phasing out fossil fuels and argues that oil revenues are key to financing Brazil's transition to clean energy.
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revenues → insist → energy
His government has also pointed to the reduction in deforestation in the Amazon - satellite data suggests the area deforested in the first half of 2026 was reduced to its lowest in the past decade - as proof that its policies were working.
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policies → point → proof
Referring to what Trump has dubbed the "Donroe doctrine" - his administration's national security strategy which asserts that US dominance in the Western hemisphere should not be interfered with - Lula has insisted that "Brazil does not fit into anyone's backyard".
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Brazil → refer → backyard
In another thinly veiled reference to both his rival Flávio Bolsonaro and those in the Trump administration who would like to see the right-wing candidate win, the Brazilian leader has also warned that he would not tolerate "foreign and local enemies of democracy" interfering with the polls.
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enemies → veil → polls
What is Bolsonaro promising?
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Bolsonaro → promise → What
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is Jair Bolsonaro's eldest son and has been serving as a senator since 2019.
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Bolsonaro → serve → 2019
The younger Bolsonaro is running for the right-wing Liberal Party (PL) and, while he is widely seen as less confrontational than his father, he is appealing to the followers of the older Bolsonaro by promising to broadly continue in his footsteps.
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he → run → footsteps
During his time in the Senate, the trained lawyer has advocated a tough-on-crime stance, calling for longer sentences and laxer gun laws, arguing that "decent citizens" should be able to defend themselves from criminals.
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citizens → train → criminals
He has successfully lobbied for the US to declare Brazil-based criminal gangs Comando Vermelho (CV) and Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, a move that was opposed by Lula.
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that → lobby → Lula
The younger Bolsonaro has also courted evangelicals and the agricultural industry as part of his campaign.
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Bolsonaro → court → campaign
He has said that he will cut what he says are unnecessary regulations and "get the state off farmers' backs".
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he → say → backs
Quizzed in an interview with Globo in August on whether he still believed - as he had said in 2019 - that climate change did not exist, he acknowledged that there had been "extreme climate events", but insisted that these events were "cyclical".
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events → quiz → 2019
…and 14 more, not listed.
The Aporia
