Over the summer, after President Donald Trump took the Gordie Howe bridge hostage at the behest of his billionaire benefactors, I wrote that gangsterism was a key part of the New York real estate world of the 1970s and 1980s.
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gangsterism → take → 1970s
Trump was in New York last week and announced at the United Nations that it was also the animating spirit of his foreign policy.
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it → announce → policy
“To the victor belong the spoils,” he instructed the General Assembly, apropos of the oil “deal” he made with America’s now puppet regime in Venezuela.
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he → belong → Venezuela
When gangsters take over a rival’s turf, they do not wind down the operation, much less hand it over to a new local thug.
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they → take → thug
They take it over and claim the proceeds — the spoils, if you will.
uncertain
you → take → proceeds
Trump then returned to Washington to roll out the (literal) red carpet for Chinese President Xi Jinping.
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Trump → return → Jinping
While Xi was waiting to deplane, he could observe uniformed American military personnel on their knees to clean the red carpet before his descent.
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personnel → wait → descent
He likely does not see such literal kowtowing even at home.
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He → see → home
American presidents do not greet foreign leaders on the tarmac — not since the protocol was revised during the Kennedy administration.
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protocol → greet → administration
The sole exception is for visiting popes — Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton respectively greeted John Paul II in Alaska (1984), Miami (1987), Denver (1993), Newark (1995) and St. Louis (1999); George W. Bush welcomed Benedict XVI in Washington (2008) as Barack Obama did for Francis (2015).
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Obama → visit → 2015
But that’s it.
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that → ’ → ?
A papal visit to the United States while Trump is still president is unlikely, so perhaps Trump thought Xi the best he could do.
uncertain
he → think → States
Certainly, Trump speaks more favourably of Xi than he does of Pope Leo XIV, whom he subjected to a social media tirade earlier this year.
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he → speak → tirade
Only Vladimir Putin — red carpet in Alaska last summer — gets the adulation given to Xi, a sort of affection for gangster regimes by one who celebrates, as he did at the UN, the gangster ethic.
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he → get → ethic
Gangsterism as the organizing principle of foreign policy is hardly new, but ancient.
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Gangsterism → organize → policy
The phrase itself — to the victor belongs the spoils — arose in the context of naked American political patronage in the 19th century and, it must be conceded, has been applicable on occasion to American foreign policy, too.
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it → belong → policy
Gangsterism had been largely set aside after WWII; whatever “rules-based order” means, it means not gangsterism.
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it → set → gangsterism
It did suit the administration on the Gordie Howe hostage-taking.
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It → suit → taking
Canada had to concede or the bridge wouldn’t open.
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bridge → have → ?
But it also likely cost the Americans in the trade negotiations.
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it → cost → negotiations
Why would Canada make other concessions with a gangster who takes hostages?
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who → make → hostages
As for hostage-taking, or extraction-by-law-enforcement if you prefer, in Venezuela, shed no tears for Nicolas Maduro, languishing in a New York jail.
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you → prefer → jail
But the deal that Trump made with Venezuela will require massive private investment over the long term, and what company will be confident in an environment in which there are gangsters on both sides, in Caracas and in Washington?
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company → make → Washington
Gangsterism did not play well in Greenland, in which NATO allies forced Trump to back down and accept an enhanced version of the same arrangements the U.S. has had since the 1950s.
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U.S. → play → 1950s
Gangsterism is proving difficult in the Persian Gulf, where in the heady days after starting the war Trump announced that he wanted to “take the oil.”
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he → prove → oil
Despite an overwhelming imbalance in military power, not only can the U.S. not take the oil, but at enormous expense is struggling to re-establish the status quo antebellum — namely free and safe passage of all oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
The most pressing question is whether gangsterism is a good China policy.
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gangsterism → take → Hormuz
It would seem not, as China already defeated the Trump administration in last year’s initial round of the trade war.
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China → seem → war
Constricting access to rare earths forced the Americans to back down, and as a kind gesture Beijing promised to buy more American soybeans.
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Beijing → constrict → soybeans
Those promises have not been quickly fulfilled, as the howls from Iowa farmers, paying over $6/gallon for diesel, attest.
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howls → fulfil → diesel
Gangsterism is a foolish policy if the other fellow is stronger, or at least strong enough to inflict damage.
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fellow → inflict → damage
The alternative of carefully constructing international alliances to constrain China is not the sort of work gangsters like to do, even though the more skilful ones recognize the need to do so.
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ones → construct → need
One of the real achievements of the first Trump term was making clear that a new approach was needed to the strategic and moral threat of China.
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needed → make → China
The challenge for the second term was to build a grand partnership of like-minded allies, liberal democracies and market economies, to force China to become a less aggressive international actor, to play by global economic rules.
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challenge → build → rules
Instead, Trump chose to aggravate his allies and capitulate to the Chinese.
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Trump → choose → Chinese
In his obsequious deference to Xi last week, Trump implicitly acknowledged that he had, as he is wont to say, few cards to play.
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he → acknowledge → cards
If Trump had any cards, he would at least demand that China stop aiding Iran in its war effort against the U.S.
It is astonishing that in wartime, Trump could lavishly concede a singular honour on a country aiding his adversary.
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Trump → have → adversary
But Trump lost his trade war to Xi last year, and will lose the Iran war to Xi too, given that China will emerge stronger and America weaker in the aftermath.
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America → lose → aftermath
They belonged to Xi, and the victor had come to collect them.
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victor → belong → them
The Aporia
