In early March, nine days after starting his war with Iran, President Donald Trump held a news conference to crow about his “military success, the likes of which people haven’t seen”.
asserted
people → start → which
“We’re winning very decisively,” he claimed, and “the result will be lower oil prices”.
asserted
result → win → ?
Instead, Trump’s Iran war should be taught for decades as a model of how not to conduct either war or foreign policy.
asserted
war → teach → war
It’s an example of how hubris can swamp a presidency and lead it to military solutions for difficult global problems – and, in the process, make everything worse.
asserted
everything → ’ → process
“The unsettling reality is that the conflict is nowhere near over,” Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group writes in a Foreign Affairs essay titled The New Forever War.
asserted
Vaez → write → essay
Still, the Trumpian myopia persists, with the administration continuing to claim that its pressure on Iran is a smashing success.
uncertain
pressure → persist → Iran
“The blockade is working; it’s working like nothing we’ve ever seen,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News in September.
asserted
Bessent → work → September
Diesel prices at a few places in California have hit $US9.99 ($14.40) a gallon, the maximum price those pumps can display.
asserted
pumps → hit → US9.99
The United States has already spent more than $43 billion on the war, by a lowball Pentagon estimate.
asserted
States → spend → estimate
Higher prices caused by the war have cost the typical American family about $US1000, according to economist Mark Zandi.
uncertain
prices → cause → Zandi
More broadly, the US has depleted its arsenal, cost American and Iranian lives, possibly committed war crimes, exposed American vulnerabilities, effectively lost access to some bases and weakened US military credibility as far away as East Asia.
uncertain
US → deplete → Asia
Against that, the Trump administration believes it has the upper hand because of the economic pressure the blockade is creating for Iran.
asserted
blockade → believe → Iran
It’s true that the Iranian economy is a catastrophe and that ordinary Iranians – the people we are supposed to be helping – are suffering greatly.
asserted
we → ’ → ?
Yet Washington doesn’t seem to understand that instead of surrendering, Iran may choose to escalate.
uncertain
Iran → seem → ?
“They’ve come to the conclusion that the only way they survive is to shoot their way out,” said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
asserted
Nasr → come → Studies
He suggested that Iran could increase attacks on shipping and, especially if it is attacked, strike oil infrastructure around the Persian Gulf.
uncertain
it → suggest → Gulf
I fear that Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, an Iran watcher at a British think tank, is right when he says: “Iran did not wage a scorched-earth campaign – but it may yet do so if the current situation persists for too long.
uncertain
situation → fear → campaign
That is what everyone who actually follows this region and its dynamics is worried about.”
asserted
who → follow → region
It’s difficult to see a deal being reached, partly because both Trump and Iran have a history of overreaching.
asserted
Trump → ’ → overreaching
It doesn’t help that Trump’s chief negotiators, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, are real estate investors chosen for their closeness to Trump rather than for, er, their diplomatic savvy.
asserted
negotiators → help → savvy
Iranian leaders also seem cocky.
asserted
leaders → seem → ?
Ahmad Vahidi, the commander in chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, boasted in August that Iran had brought the US “to its knees.”
asserted
Iran → boast → knees
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC’s Meet the Press that Iran was fully prepared for a new round of fighting, “even if it comes to a doomsday war”.
asserted
it → tell → war
One rare issue on which I agree with Trump is the paramount importance of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
asserted
I → agree → weapons
In Trump’s speech to the United Nations – the one in which he mused about whether he should “annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly” – he insisted that “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon”.
asserted
Iran → muse → weapon
That’s easy to say.
asserted
That → ’ → ?
But Trump’s war may have actually increased the likelihood of Iran’s making a drive towards a nuclear weapon.
uncertain
Iran → increase → weapon
Trump’s war began by killing the previous supreme leader, who had issued a fatwa saying that Iran would not develop nuclear weapons.
asserted
Iran → begin → weapons
The new supreme leader, his son, does not inherit that fatwa and has not issued his own, so now “there’s a serious conversation in Iran” about pursuing nuclear weapons, Nasr said.
asserted
Nasr → inherit → weapons
A new measure before the Iranian parliament proposes withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and 32 Iranian figures have called on the country to do so.
asserted
figures → propose → country
“Any other country but Iran would have pulled out of the NPT if treated the same way,” Araghchi told reporters.
asserted
Araghchi → pull → reporters
We should take these warnings seriously.
asserted
We → take → warnings
One reason professors will teach Trump’s war as an example of military malpractice is that it fits neatly into a larger pattern of counterproductive American policies towards Iran.
asserted
it → teach → Iran
I deplore the brutality, corruption and economic incompetence of Iran’s rulers – so it’s infuriating that America has repeatedly empowered Iranian extremists
asserted
America → deplore → extremists
First, the US helped topple a democratically elected prime minister in 1953, energising nationalists and souring Iranians on the West.
asserted
US → help → West
Then in the 1960s and ’70s, the US gave Iran a nuclear reactor, backed an increasingly autocratic shah and overstepped in ways that helped allow Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to become a national force by denouncing American imperialism.
asserted
Khomeini → give → imperialism
President George W. Bush’s 2003 Iraq War toppled Saddam Hussein, an enemy of Iran, and empowered Shiite militias that support Iran.
asserted
that → topple → Iran
In 2018, Trump announced his withdrawal from the Obama nuclear pact with Iran.
asserted
Trump → announce → Iran
The capstone in this “march of folly,” to borrow a phrase from historian Barbara Tuchman, was Trump’s war on Iran this year, which has bolstered military hard-liners in Tehran and enabled them to project greater power over the Persian Gulf and global oil markets.
asserted
which → borrow → Gulf
That’s what I find particularly worth studying: How is it that for three-quarters of a century, Americans have so bungled our foreign policy that we have systematically empowered Iranian extremists?
asserted
we → ’ → extremists
…and 3 more, not listed.
The Aporia
