President Donald Trump and JD Vance spent years promising that the era of American “forever wars” was over.
asserted
era → spend → wars
Seven months after the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran, the administration has found a unique way to keep that promise: Don’t call it a war.
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administration → launch → it
“I wouldn’t call it a war,” Vance told reporters at a White House briefing earlier this month.
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Vance → call → briefing
There has been plenty of shooting since the conflict began on Feb. 28.
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conflict → begin → Feb.
Eighteen American service members have been killed and more than 800 wounded.
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800 → kill → ?
American forces have struck targets inside Iran, Iranian forces have attacked American military installations across the Middle East, and the U.S. maintains more than 50,000 troops in the region while enforcing a naval blockade.
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U.S. → strike → blockade
The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint, with Iran attacking commercial shipping and the American forces attempting to keep oil moving through one of the world’s most important waterways.
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forces → remain → waterways
The Congressional Budget Office calls it an “armed conflict” and estimates that military operations have cost taxpayers about $38 billion through Aug. 1.
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operations → call → Aug.
U.S. Central Command subsequently put the bill at $43.6 billion through Sept. 3.
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Command → put → Sept.
The CBO estimates that even at relatively low levels of fighting, continuing the conflict would cost $2 billion per month.
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continuing → estimate → month
Whatever Vance wants to call it, the U.S. is engaged in an expensive military operation with no indication that it is close to a final resolution.
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it → want → resolution
Asked whether it would be over by the midterm elections, Vance acknowledged that he had no idea.
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he → ask → idea
“The reality is I don’t know the answer to that question,” he said.
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he → know → question
“You’d have to ask the Iranians.”
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You → have → Iranians
That is actually an honest answer, and there is nothing inherently wrong with it.
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That → be → it
No president or vice president can know how long a military conflict will last, particularly when its resolution depends in part on the adversary’s actions.
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resolution → know → actions
The problem for Vance is that it collides with years of rhetoric from him and Trump about the supposed folly of American “forever wars.”
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it → collide → wars
This is not a forever war,” he said.
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he → say → ?
Four months later, the ceasefire is gone, negotiations have repeatedly stalled, Iran keeps attacking ships, and American military operations continue.
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operations → go → ships
Talks mediated by Qatar this week produced little progress, while U.S. officials are considering the possibility that major combat operations could resume.
uncertain
operations → mediate → possibility
Though it was likely a slip of the tongue, the president said on Monday that the U.S. would win the Iran “war” very soon.
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U.S. → say → war
The following day, asked whether Iran was ready to give up, Trump said he didn’t know.
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he → ask → ?
It’s a stark contrast to what Trump said in February.
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Trump → ’ → February
He told Americans the operation would last four to six weeks.
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operation → tell → weeks
It is entering its eighth month, and its vice president says its duration depends on Tehran.
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duration → enter → Tehran
The cost is not limited to the military budget.
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cost → limit → budget
On Feb. 23, five days before the fighting began, the national average price for regular gasoline was $2.93 per gallon.
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price → begin → gallon
By Sept. 21, it had reached $4.47 per gallon.
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it → reach → gallon
Diesel went from $3.81 to $6.53 over the same period.
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Diesel → go → period
This week, the Energy Information Administration reported the price of regular gasoline at $4.46 and diesel at $6.38.
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Administration → report → 6.38
Trump acknowledged the connection when he said Monday that gasoline prices would fall substantially once the war ends.
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war → acknowledge → connection
The administration announced Tuesday that it will release an additional 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of an international effort to address the energy disruption caused by the conflict.
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it → announce → conflict
It’s a difficult situation heading into midterm elections, especially for a president who returned to office promising lower prices.
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who → ’ → prices
Naturally, voters have taken notice.
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voters → take → notice
A Fox News poll released this month found 71% believe the administration lacks a clear strategy for ending the conflict, while 60% said U.S. military action against Iran was the wrong decision.
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action → release → Iran
Only 37% said military action was the right call.
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action → say → ?
“Forever war” was always more a political slogan than anything having to do with the military.
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war → have → military
There is no number of days after which a military operation officially becomes one.
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operation → be → which
The phrase worked because it transformed a complicated argument about American interests, objectives, and military commitments into a much easier argument about “ignoring” interests at home to focus on issues abroad.
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it → work → issues
Trump and Vance benefited from that simplification when someone else was responsible for the fighting.
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someone → benefit → fighting
…and 20 more, not listed.
The Aporia
