Photo via Toronto Star

Brazil's Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro campaign in powerhouse state ahead of Sunday's presidential vote

Read the original at Toronto Star ↗
Cite

Savarese, M., & Hughes, E. (2026, October 3). Brazil's Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro campaign in powerhouse state ahead of Sunday's presidential vote. Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/news/world/americas/brazil-s-lula-and-fl-vio-bolsonaro-campaign-in-powerhouse-state-ahead-of-sunday-s-presidential-vote/article_7e9b8cfc-e049-5204-827c-24e564ebe544.html

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Toronto Star · collected 2026-10-03 · by Mauricio Savarese, Eléonore Hughes

Quick Summary

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and opposition candidate Senator Flávio Bolsonaro campaigned in São Paulo on Saturday ahead of Brazil’s presidential election scheduled for Sunday. São Paulo, with a fifth of Brazil's population and an annual GDP of 3.4 trillion Brazilian reais ($650 billion), is crucial to the outcome. Lula emphasized themes of democracy and sovereignty versus barbarism and corruption, while Flávio Bolsonaro rallied supporters in rural areas, asserting his belief that they can win in the first round.
Written by AI on 2026-10-03, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s incumbent leftist president aged 80, and Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro (currently serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup), are in a tight race ahead of the October 4 election. Both candidates have been making last-ditch efforts to discredit each other through scandals and mudslinging, reflecting deep political polarization in Brazil. Lula has promised social welfare increases and banned sports betting, while Bolsonaro, campaigning on security and fiscal austerity, is confident of a first-round victory despite polls suggesting a likely runoff on October 25.

On the eve of the election, Lula held a large rally in São Paulo, Brazil’s economic powerhouse, drawing hundreds of thousands of supporters. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro led a motorcycle caravan through towns in São Paulo state and later rallied in Rio de Janeiro, also expressing confidence in victory. The race is seen as crucial for determining the future direction of Latin America's largest economy, with Lula framing it as a choice between democracy and "barbarism," while Bolsonaro’s supporters view him as a political legend ("mito").

Written for “Brazil Presidential Election Campaigns” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 6 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Brazil Presidential Election Campaigns
Politics · 7 article(s) covering the same event. Compare every outlet's account →

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Straits Times
Hedges 0 of 11 claims Outlet record 66/100
Al Jazeera
Hedges 2 of 59 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles describe different events: one discusses the political situation and legal issues surrounding former president Jair Bolsonaro, while the other reports on current campaigning activities of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Sao Paulo ahead of an election.”
Al Jazeera
Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles describe different rallies held by Lula and Bolsonaro in distinct locations on separate days (Friday vs Saturday) leading up to the election.”
National Post
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 24 claims Outlet record 60/100
Toronto Star
Hedges 2 of 38 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles describe different events: Article A covers the upcoming election day itself, while Article B describes the candidates' campaign activities on the eve of the election.”
Euronews
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 27 claims Outlet record 60/100
The Hindu
Hedges 0 of 3 claims Outlet record 60/100
“Article A describes the campaigning activities of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro on October 3, while Article B reports on poll results for the upcoming election on October 4.”
The Hindu
⚖️ Leans right further right than this Hedges 4 of 38 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles describe different phases of the election: Article A covers the campaigning on the eve of the election, while Article B reports on the results and projections after voting has occurred.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 2 of 33 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles describe different time periods of campaigning: Article A refers to activities on the eve of an election, while Article B discusses a period following the first round of elections and leading up to a runoff.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 7 of 33 claims Outlet record 60/100
“Article A describes campaign activities on October 3rd, while Article B discusses the results from the first round of voting on October 2nd.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
30
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 30 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
64/100
Toronto Star's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
7
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-03 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Toronto Star · 11187 article(s) · 28 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 28 correction(s)
2026-10-26
Correction
2026-10-24
Correction
2026-10-07
Correction
2026-09-24
Correction

Who wrote this

Mauricio Savarese
24 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Politicians say Lula could have won by more but voters were hampered by bus shortages in Sao Paulo and Salvador, where the president is popular.
🔮 Brazilians will choose between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s polarizing presidential election, a contest that will determine whether the U.S. will significantly expand its growing influence in Latin America.
🔮 Polls published on Saturday suggest it will be a nail-biting election that could be decided on details.
🔮 Meta will continue to enforce its rules, comply with Brazilian electoral legislation, correct errors when they occur, and ensure a level playing field for everyone who uses our services,” Meta said.
🔮 Brazil’s Senate approved a constitutional amendment Wednesday to reduce the country’s maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours without a salary cut, a move backed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who hopes it will boost his standing against Flávio Bolsonaro in the Oct. 25 presidential runoff.
🔮 FIFA will propose to its members a $6.35 billion fund for soccer development between 2027 and 2030, including a boosted amount of $25 million for each national association, according to a document reviewed by The Associated Press on Tuesday.
🔮 The U.S. and Brazil have had an extradition agreement since 1961, but it wasn’t immediately clear whether the terms would apply.
🔮 Since neither candidate secured an absolute majority, they will face off again in three weeks.
🔮 If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, the top two vote-getters will head to a runoff on Oct. 25 in Latin America’s economic powerhouse.
🔮 Observers say he would likely be released from prison if his son wins the election.
Also by Mauricio Savarese
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 24 articles by Mauricio Savarese →
Eléonore Hughes
14 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 One meme titled “Which costume would you use to flee?” presented Bolsonaro in a range of outfits to resemble a Rastafarian, Mario, former soccer player Ronaldo and John Lennon, among others.
🔮 The departure of the 45-year-old ally of U.S. President Donald Trump from Brazil days after losing the runoff vote is sending shock waves across Brazil’s right and reverberating across the region, and it may spell more trouble for relations between Washington and Brasilia.
🔮 Brazilians will choose between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s polarizing presidential election, a contest that will determine whether the U.S. will significantly expand its growing influence in Latin America.
🔮 A victory by Sen. Bolsonaro would add Brazil to a list of Latin American countries — including Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Peru — that have elected Trump-friendly governments in recent years.
🔮 “Whether they win or lose the second round, the Brazilian left may have begun — in this 2026 election — its process of digital transformation,” said Bites director Manoel Fernandes in an Oct. 17 statement.
🔮 Brazil’s Senate approved a constitutional amendment Wednesday to reduce the country’s maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours without a salary cut, a move backed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who hopes it will boost his standing against Flávio Bolsonaro in the Oct. 25 presidential runoff.
🔮 Fuel prices are a particularly sensitive issue for voters, who will decide on Oct. 25 whether to elect Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, a son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, or grant Lula a fourth, nonconsecutive term.
🔮 Observers say he would likely be released from prison if his son wins the election.
🔮 Millions of Brazilians will vote Sunday in an election dominated by two rivals: incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of ex-leader Jair Bolsonaro who Lula defeated four years ago.
🔮 Also on Friday, Brazil’s federal police said they executed search and seizure warrants in Sao Paulo and the Federal District as part of an investigation into suspected plans that could threaten U.S. diplomatic facilities in Brazil.
Also by Eléonore Hughes
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 14 articles by Eléonore Hughes →

Topics

Americana Argentina Brazil SAO PAULO Santa Barbara d’Oeste

Subjects

Lula PERSON · 12× SAO PAULO GPE · 8× Brazil GPE · 7× Bolsonaro PERSON · 5× Flávio Bolsonaro PERSON · 5× Jair Bolsonaro PERSON · 3× Americana NORP · 2× Jair Bolsonaro’s PERSON · 2× Santa Barbara d’Oeste GPE · 2× Trump PERSON · 2×

Narrative

Some 140 kilometers away (87 miles) from Lula in downtown Sao Paulo, Flávio Bolsonaro was trailed by a long line of supporters kitted out in yellow and green on motorbikes as he made his way on top of a sound truck from Santa Barbara d’Oeste to Americana. “I’m convinced that we can win in the first round,” said Sen. Bolsonaro, who kissed a portrait of his father as the crowd shouted “mito” — a Portuguese word for “legend” that Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters use to refer to him.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-03
🔮 Observers say he would likely be released from prison if his son wins the election.

Claims (30 extracted, 0 hedged)

SAO PAULO (AP) — Front-runners in Brazil ‘s presidential race campaigned Saturday in the powerhouse state of Sao Paulo, where a fifth of the nation’s vote is based, seeking to rally supporters and convince the undecided on the eve of Sunday’s election. asserted
fifth → campaign → election
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, seeking his fourth nonconsecutive term, held his traditional preelection Saturday parade in the metropolis of Sao Paulo. asserted
Silva → seek → Paulo
Opposition candidate Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, traveled to the countryside cities of Santa Barbara d’Oeste and Americana. asserted
Bolsonaro → travel → Barbara
Argentina has around the same. asserted
Argentina → have → same
Some 34 million “paulistas,” as those born in the state are known, are eligible to vote. asserted
those → bear → state
Lula told his supporters near Paulista Avenue, Sao Paulo’s main artery, that this election represents an existential battle for the nation’s future. “On one side, we have democracy and sovereignty; on the other, barbarism and corruption,” Lula said, echoing key themes of his campaign. asserted
Lula → tell → campaign
Last year, Brazil’s Supreme Court sentenced Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup after his 2022 electoral defeat to Lula. asserted
Court → sentence → Lula
Observers say he would likely be released from prison if his son wins the election. asserted
son → say → election
Lula’s team has also repeatedly cast Flávio Bolsonaro as a threat to Brazil’s sovereignty, pointing to his proximity with U.S. President Donald Trump. asserted
team → cast → Trump
Last year, the American leader imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports due to Jair Bolsonaro’s trial, which Trump called a “witch hunt.” asserted
Trump → impose → which
Thirty-two-year-old Daniella Fernandes, who works at a public school in Sao Paulo as a secretary, said that, at first, she wanted another Workers’ Party politician to run instead of Lula. asserted
politician → work → Lula
But she changed her mind during the campaign. asserted
she → change → campaign
“I wanted some renovation, but Lula is the only one who can appeal to everyone — even those who are not on the left,” said Fernandes, who was wearing several Lula badges on her white shirt. asserted
who → want → shirt
Only Lula can win this one.” asserted
Lula → win → one
Some 140 kilometers away (87 miles) from Lula in downtown Sao Paulo, Flávio Bolsonaro was trailed by a long line of supporters kitted out in yellow and green on motorbikes as he made his way on top of a sound truck from Santa Barbara d’Oeste to Americana. “I’m convinced that we can win in the first round,” said Sen. Bolsonaro, who kissed a portrait of his father as the crowd shouted “mito” — a Portuguese word for “legend” that Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters use to refer to him. asserted
supporters → trail → him
“So let’s get out of our houses to vote (...) because Bolsonaro is going to be president,” Flávio Bolsonaro said. asserted
Bolsonaro → let → houses
Bolsonaro was accompanied by Sao Paulo state Gov. Tarcísio de Freitas, who was once floated as Bolsonaro senior’s political heir, before Flávio Bolsonaro last December said his father had chosen him to run in the upcoming election. asserted
father → accompany → election
Brazilians on Sunday will also choose state and federal representatives as well as governors and some senators. asserted
Brazilians → choose → representatives
In Sao Paulo, de Freitas is running for re-election. asserted
Freitas → run → election
The main opposition candidate in that race is Fernando Haddad, who Jair Bolsonaro beat in 2018 to become president and who served as Lula’s finance minister. asserted
who → beat → minister
De Freitas has a wide lead in the polls. asserted
Freitas → have → polls
Twelve candidates are on the presidential ballot, but only Lula and Bolsonaro are thought to have a real chance of becoming Brazil’s next head of state. asserted
Lula → think → state
If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the top 2 will advance to a runoff on Oct. 25. asserted
2 → receive → Oct.
The two represent opposite sides of the political spectrum, with conflicting visions on issues ranging from how to tackle organized crime to the relationship Latin America’s biggest country should have with the Trump administration. asserted
country → represent → administration
Lula, who got his start as a union worker and has a missing pinky finger following an accident in a factory when he was 19, has at times inspired cult-like devotion. asserted
he → get → devotion
He spent more than a year in prison on corruption convictions that were later annulled before winning a third nonconsecutive term in 2022. asserted
that → spend → 2022
He has promised to ensure Brazilians are the ones to benefit from the country’s rare minerals and resources, protect the Amazon rainforest and continue his flagship welfare program Bolsa Familia. asserted
Brazilians → promise → program
Bolsonaro has largely embraced his father’s ultra-conservative agenda, while at times trying to strike a more moderate communication style to attract centrist voters. asserted
Bolsonaro → embrace → voters
His hardline security policies have been a pillar of his campaign, and polls show these proposals are popular among Brazilians. asserted
proposals → show → Brazilians
The senator has pledged to fight the country’s criminal groups by building El Salvador-style megaprisons, following the Trump administration’s lead by designating transnational gangs terrorist organizations and reducing the age to be tried as an adult to 16. asserted
senator → pledge → 16
💬Give feedback
🕘History 🎫Support