Brazilians vote Sunday in a high-stakes presidential election pitting incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, ideological opposites who are each seen as having a shot at an outright victory.
asserted
who → vote → victory
If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, the top two vote-getters will head to a runoff on Oct. 25 in Latin America’s economic powerhouse.
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getters → get → powerhouse
Ten other candidates are expected to garner much smaller numbers of votes on Sunday.
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candidates → expect → Sunday
Lula, who at 80 is one of the world’s oldest heads of state, is running in his seventh presidential election and has strengthened Brazil’s ties with Beijing.
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who → run → Beijing
Trump allies have found support in recent years in some Latin American countries, including Argentina, Colombia and Peru.
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allies → find → Argentina
Almost 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote in this tense political showdown.
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Brazilians → vote → showdown
Bolsonaro leans into Trump alliance
Where Bolsonaro has leaned into his ideological alliance with Trump, Lula has criticized Washington.
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Lula → lean → Washington
He has often spoken about risks of U.S. intervention in the Brazilian elections after the Trump administration imposed high tariffs against Brazilian exports, revoked the visa of the country’s ambassador in D.C. and sanctioned a Supreme Court justice who chaired the probe that ended up resulting in the sentencing of Jair Bolsonaro, Lula’s predecessor.
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that → speak → Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro has touted his proximity to the White House and insisted Brazil needs to strike better deals with the Trump administration, including the rare minerals economy.
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Brazil → tout → economy
Brazil estimates its deposits to hold up to 21 million tons, second only to China.
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deposits → estimate → China
Bolsonaro also has campaigned on releasing his father from his 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup and bringing him back to politics.
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Bolsonaro → campaign → politics
Bolsonaro denies he’s being helped by the U.S. government.
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he → deny → government
“That narrative won’t stick, sorry,” he said at a September campaign event.
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he → stick → event
Brazilians will also elect 27 state governors, members of state legislatures, all 513 federal congressmen and 54 of the country’s 81 senators in Sunday’s vote.
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Brazilians → elect → vote
Last-minute mistakes could decide race
Thomas Traumann, a political consultant based in Rio de Janeiro, says last-minute mistakes by either candidate or by their allies could make all the difference for undecided voters.
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mistakes → decide → voters
“ Polarization in Brazil created a trap.
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Polarization → create → trap
You only have two options, and they fight each other in an atmosphere that becomes worse and worse,” Traumann said.
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Traumann → have → atmosphere
Four years ago, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by 2.1 million votes — a margin of just under 2 percentage points.
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Lula → beat → points
At the time, Brazilians were upset with the then-president’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, his repeated threats against democracy, his attacks on the electronic voting system, and the poor shape of the nation’s economy as inflation was on the rise.
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inflation → upset → rise
Now, the incumbent faces a tough battle due to an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal that ensnared the same justice who led the investigation into Bolsonaro.
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who → face → Bolsonaro
Carlos Melo, a political science professor at Insper University in Sao Paulo, says some voters have grown weary of Lula, who is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as president.
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who → say → president
“Many in the Lula campaign were not expecting such a difficult election a few weeks ago, and it is clear to them that the present election is a tough battle and the next ones, without Lula, could be even more so,” Melo said.
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Melo → expect → Lula
Bolsonaro has seen his political career tainted by several corruption accusations, the latest of them involving a disgraced banker paying him millions of dollars, allegedly to produce a movie on his father’s life.
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banker → see → life
More recently, he has been under fire from Roman Catholics who fear he might make too many concessions to his evangelical base.
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he → fear → base
The Aporia
