It has become a dangerous proxy war between Iran-backed Houthi rebels and Saudi-backed government forces — and another front in Tehran’s decades-long effort to project its Islamic revolutionary ideology and expand its regional reach, at a devastating human cost.
asserted
It → become → cost
During the months I spent covering the Iran war from Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, one question kept coming up in my interviews and conversations with people on the street: is the Gulf’s golden age beginning to slip away as escalating wars increasingly intrude on everyday life?
asserted
wars → spend → life
And another question loomed: what happens if Iran fully mobilizes its Houthi allies in Yemen?
asserted
Iran → loom → Yemen
If Tehran can disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — which carried roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil before the war — could the Houthis also threaten the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a vital artery for about 12 per cent of global maritime trade?
uncertain
Houthis → disrupt → trade
The Iran-backed Houthis have waged an insurgency against Yemen’s internationally recognized government since the early 2000s.
asserted
Houthis → back → 2000s
The conflict escalated dramatically in 2014 after the Houthis seized Sanaa, prompting a Saudi-led coalition to intervene in 2015.
asserted
coalition → escalate → 2015
The Houthis are part of an Iran-led military and ideological network often described as the “Axis of Resistance,” which includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and militias in Iraq.
asserted
which → lead → Iraq
Canada designated Ansarallah, the Houthi movement, as a terrorist entity in 2024.
asserted
Canada → designate → 2024
The United Nations maintains a sanctions regime targeting Houthi leaders and activities.
asserted
Nations → maintain → leaders
The latest escalation, which began in July, shattered the period of relative calm that followed the UN-brokered truce of 2022.
asserted
that → begin → 2022
The immediate trigger came on July 13, when a U.S.-sanctioned Mahan Air flight reportedly carried Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel and military equipment to Yemen.
uncertain
flight → come → Yemen
While the flight was originally bound for Sanaa, its airport was attacked by government forces, forcing the plane to divert to Hodeidah International Airport in western Yemen.
asserted
airport → bind → Yemen
The Houthis regarded the airport strike as an act of war and retaliated with strikes on major Saudi targets, reigniting the conflict.
asserted
Houthis → regard → conflict
From there, the cycle of violence intensified, with the Houthis launching missiles and drones toward Saudi Arabia and targeting energy infrastructure and military sites.
asserted
Houthis → intensify → infrastructure
The most serious escalation came on Sept. 8, when Houthi attacks injured at least 73 people, according to Saudi authorities.
uncertain
attacks → come → authorities
The battle for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and links Asia, the Middle East and Europe via the Suez Canal — was among the war’s most dramatic episodes.
asserted
which → connect → episodes
An eyewitness I spoke with remotely described it as almost “apocalyptic.”
asserted
I → speak → it
In early September, Houthi fighters launched a week-long offensive, seizing the port city of Mokha and advancing along the coast.
asserted
fighters → launch → coast
They captured strategic positions including Perim Island, at the entrance to the strait, forcing Saudi-backed government forces to withdraw from parts of the coast.
asserted
They → capture → coast
The advance gave the Houthis greater leverage over a vital maritime choke point.
asserted
advance → give → point
The speed and co-ordination of the offensive also raised questions about the extent of support the group is receiving from the IRGC.
asserted
group → raise → IRGC
The offensive killed at least 494 combatants and 29 civilians, according to an AFP tally, while more than 46,000 people were displaced during its first week, according to the UN’s International Organization for Migration.
uncertain
people → kill → Migration
I asked Edmund Walter Fitton-Brown, a former British ambassador to Yemen and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, about Iran’s on-the-ground presence in Yemen.
asserted
I → ask → Yemen
“Iran certainly has IRGC personnel on the ground inside Yemen, providing advice and operational support to the Houthis.
asserted
Iran → have → Houthis
It denies it for cosmetic reasons, to avoid antagonizing Arab opinion and to give the Houthis maximum credit as an independent actor.
asserted
It → deny → actor
The point is to bolster their claim to be an Arab government,” he said.
uncertain
he → bolster → claim
“Iranian support has been constrained by losses in its own wars and blockades on both Iran and Houthi-controlled Yemen.
asserted
support → constrain → Iran
Even so, it has probably increased as the Houthis have emerged as Iran’s key proxy, even above Lebanese Hezbollah.
asserted
Houthis → increase → Hezbollah
For Tehran, the timing appears unusually pragmatic.
asserted
timing → appear → Tehran
U.S. President Donald Trump has so far declined Saudi Arabia’s request for direct U.S. strikes against the Houthis, while offering intelligence and targeting support instead.
asserted
Trump → decline → support
Trump has also said that the Houthis contacted Washington and did not want a fight with the United States.
asserted
Houthis → say → States
For now, the Houthis say their blockade targets Saudi vessels and that they are allowing other ships to pass.
asserted
ships → say → vessels
But sustained pressure on energy supplies could still mean higher fuel prices and greater economic pain in the United States.
uncertain
pressure → mean → States
U.S. diesel prices have reached a record $6.53 a gallon, with supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict contributing to the surge.
asserted
disruptions → reach → surge
For Iran, that creates an opportunity to impose economic costs on Washington through regional proxies without confronting the United States directly on every front — potentially adding to the political pressure surrounding the U.S. midterm elections in November.
asserted
that → create → November
In the Middle East, where I am now, alarm spread rapidly on Sept. 16, after Saudi officials accused the Houthis of launching a drone toward Mecca, Islam’s holiest city and a destination for millions of pilgrims each year.
asserted
officials → spread → pilgrims
The drone was reportedly intercepted before reaching its destination.
uncertain
drone → intercept → destination
The allegation triggered fear across the region, reviving memories of the bitter confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia over the security and sanctity of Islam’s holiest sites.
asserted
allegation → trigger → sites
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini called for exporting the revolution and challenged Saudi custodianship of Mecca and Medina.
asserted
Khomeini → call → Mecca
Starting in 1981, Iranian pilgrims staged political demonstrations under the banner of “disavowal of polytheists,” with demonstrators chanting slogans such as, “Death to America!
asserted
demonstrators → start → America
…and 24 more, not listed.
The Aporia
