What’s going to happen in the midterm election?
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What → go → election
(Maybe)
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- Two of the country’s top political prognosticators see Democrats likely seizing the House and quite possibly the Senate.
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Democrats → click → House
- The guardrails Republicans were counting on to stem their November losses don’t seem to be holding.
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Republicans → count → losses
There are few people, if any, who’ve tracked U.S. elections for longer or in greater depth than Charlie Cook.
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who → be → Cook
Ever since 1984, when he started his eponymous political newsletter, Cook and his stellar crew of nonpartisan analysts have plumbed many thousands of races — for president, Congress, governor — following the money, sussing out the candidates, watching their ads and assaying the campaign landscape at a granular level.
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Cook → start → level
Cook calls this midterm election the strangest he’s ever seen.
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he → call → election
What appeared to be a fairly normal election for a president halfway through his term — a probable setback, as unhappy voters register their discontent — has the potential, Cook said, to turn into a disaster for Republicans.
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Cook → appear → Republicans
Democrats picked up 41 House seats in President Trump’s last midterm election, in 2018.
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Democrats → pick → 2018
What’s unusual, Cook suggested, is the prospect of big Democratic gains when Republicans started out this election season with so many advantages.
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Republicans → ’ → advantages
(And that was before the GOP set off on a gerrymandering jag at Trump’s behest.)
The four-seat gain Democrats need to win control once seemed all but out of reach.
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Democrats → set → reach
Odds are looking up, though the party still faces a tough path, with toss-up races in a half dozen (mostly red) states.
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party → look → states
Roughly two-thirds of the Senate seats up in November are in states Trump carried in 2024.
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Trump → carry → 2024
Five of the seven toss-up races are in states Trump won, several by double digits.
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Trump → toss → digits
On the House side, Republicans maintain control by an exceedingly narrow margin, meaning there aren’t a lot of low-hanging districts for Democrats to aim for.
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Democrats → maintain → districts
As Cook rightly noted, “A party cannot lose a seat they don’t have.
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they → note → seat
But Trump’s deteriorating approval rating, an unpopular war, persistent inflation and the president’s egotistical indulgences have jeopardized a number of GOP-held seats that normally would be automatic wins, including contests in such Republican strongholds as Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio and even Texas.
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that → deteriorate → Alaska
“I’m not a meteorologist, but it’s kind of like three competing weather fronts collided,” Cook said.
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Cook → ’m → ?
“One was Iran and gasoline, diesel prices going sky high ...
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prices → go → ?
And then the third is kind of the catch-all and it’s everything from ballrooms, reflecting pools, arches, vaccines, Medicaid cuts.
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it → ’ → ballrooms
We’ll get to predictions in a moment.
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We → get → moment
First, let’s hear from Nathan Gonzales, another longtime election handicapper.
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’s → let → Gonzales
He’s been tracking political contests nationwide for more than 25 years and edits and publishes Inside Elections — formerly the Rothenberg Political Report — another nonpartisan field guide to campaigns.
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He → track → campaigns
Like Cook, he traffics in clear-eyed, dispassionate analysis, not partisan wish-casting or political spin.
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he → traffic → analysis
Gonzales, too, sees a bad moon rising for Republicans.
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moon → see → Republicans
Trump’s performance — his approval rating is flirting with record lows — “has inspired Democrats, turned off independents and created a group of apathetic Republicans,” Gonzales said, “and those are the ingredients for a good or great Democratic year.”
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those → flirt → year
He noted Democrats don’t need a big wave to seize control of the House.
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Democrats → note → House
A pickup of just three seats would flip the House, marking the seventh straight midterm election in which one chamber or the other changed partisan hands.
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pickup → flip → hands
(For the record, there is no authoritative definition of a wave election, though it’s generally agreed the term applies to an election in which one party or the other gains a large and lopsided number of House and Senate seats.)
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party → be → seats
It’s beginning to feel a lot like 2006, Gonzales said.
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Gonzales → begin → 2006
“We had an unpopular Republican president, a war in the Middle East that drove up gas prices.
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that → have → prices
Some members on Capitol Hill that were behaving badly,” Gonzales recalled.
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Gonzales → behave → Hill
“I remember talking to Republicans after the fact and they admitted that, while they thought they had great research on Democratic candidates and they had a fundraising advantage, voters just didn’t care.
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voters → remember → advantage
Voters weren’t in the mood to listen to what they were saying about Democrats because they were so frustrated with what was going on with the status quo and the direction of the country.
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what → listen → country
In that election, at the midpoint of President George W. Bush’s second term, Democrats gained six seats to take control of the Senate and netted 31 in the House, allowing the installation of Nancy Pelosi as the first female speaker in history.
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Democrats → gain → history
“A thumpin’,” Bush called it.
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Bush → call → it
Gonzales and his team of experts believe the House is most likely gone for Republicans, forecasting a Democratic gain of seven to 15 seats, unless the bottom falls out for the GOP and their losses climb much higher.
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losses → believe → GOP
In the Senate, where Democrats need to pick up four seats to take control, Gonzales sees the chamber teetering on a knife’s edge, forecasting a Democratic gain of three to five seats.
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chamber → need → seats
“It’s too late to fundamentally change the trajectory of this election,” Gonzales said.
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Gonzales → ’ → election
“But if Republicans can boost Republican turnout, it might be enough to save the Senate.”
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it → boost → Senate
Stepping in for a complacent Congress, Democratic attorneys general are ready to fight efforts to undermine or overturn the Nov. 3 election.
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general → step → election
…and 21 more, not listed.
The Aporia
