Prick up your ears, and you can hear it — the sound of many different kinds of Democrats grabbing credit for midterm victories that aren’t official yet.
asserted
that → prick → victories
There’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, assessing that when (not if) Abdul El-Sayed wins his Senate race in Michigan, the left will “break open the entire political calculus in America” — i.e., that progressives like them can win the Midwest.
asserted
progressives → ’ → Midwest
There’s Pete Buttigieg, making sure we know how many states he’s campaigned in (37) and how many candidates he’d endorsed (more than 100).
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he → ’ → candidates
At this time in any campaign cycle, groups, candidates, and strategists pepper reporters with early claims that they were right.
uncertain
they → pepper → claims
The election, they say, will be a referendum on their issue, a validation of their spending strategy, proof that their ideas moved votes.
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ideas → say → votes
I’ve never deleted the October 2017 email from a strategist who was ready to explain why Ralph Northam lost the election for governor of Virginia.
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Northam → delete → Virginia
In fact, Northam won easily, and that strategist got strategically quiet.
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strategist → win → fact
As preposterous as it is, though, the pre-spin cycle matters, because anyone not ready to contextualize what happened to their benefit will lose face.
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what → matter → face
It mattered in 2020, when centrist Democrats burst out to blame “defund the police” activists for their party underperforming the final polls.
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party → matter → polls
It mattered after President Donald Trump’s win in 2024, when Sen. Bernie Sanders instantly blamed defeat on the party having “abandoned the working class.”
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party → matter → class
That quick analysis shaped the conversation.
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analysis → shape → conversation
Populism won.
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Populism → win → ?
The goal of recruiting swing-seat populists and getting them through primaries was to prove, as Ocasio-Cortez said, that their kind can win anywhere, which should matter for 2028.
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which → recruit → 2028
This theory may be tough to sell.
uncertain
theory → sell → ?
One of its proof points was supposed to be Maine, where Graham Platner humiliated the party establishment, then himself.
asserted
Platner → suppose → establishment
Progressives won the insta-caucus that replaced him, nominating Troy Jackson to face GOP Sen. Susan Collins, and Sanders will campaign for Jackson this weekend after some internal grumbling about whether consultants not approved by the left were ruining his campaign.
asserted
consultants → win → campaign
Michigan’s the ballgame now.
asserted
Michigan → ’ → ?
Most of the movement’s primary victories came in safe seats, but to take control of the 2028 story, they want to be talking about El-Sayed winning, Will Lawrence flipping back a mid-Michigan district, and Randy Villegas unseating Rep. David Valadao in California.
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Villegas → come → California
They want to say that hand-wringing moderates were wrong, and pure populism can flip or hold swing seats.
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populism → want → seats
But if El-Sayed becomes the first Democrat to lose a Michigan Senate seat this century, progressives will enter 2028 with empty hands.
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progressives → become → hands
What to watch: MI-SEN, MI-07, CA-22
Gerrymandering didn’t matter.
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Gerrymandering → watch → What
This will be the biggest conclusion if Republicans don’t hold the House.
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Republicans → hold → House
And they’re already conceding partial defeat.
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they → concede → defeat
“We’re not gonna win all 13 of those redistricted seats,” House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., told Axios this week.
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Emmer → go → Axios
Indeed, Democrats are competing for most of the seats that Republicans tried to lift beyond their reach z– three in Texas, three in Florida, one in North Carolina, one in Ohio, one in Alabama, and as of this week, one in Tennessee.
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Republicans → compete → Tennessee
When Trump first urged Texas to eliminate five Democratic districts, the most ambitious response was that Democrats could moderate and compete for them anyway.
uncertain
Democrats → urge → them
That did happen.
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That → happen → ?
Four of the Democrats whose seats turned redder voted with Republicans on a recent transgender health proposal; a fifth, Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, is running the most critical ads about “transgender ideology” of any Democratic incumbent.
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fifth → turn → incumbent
While It might not decide who controls the House, gerrymandering did matter.
uncertain
gerrymandering → decide → House
It won’t have mattered enough if most of the remapped districts don’t flip.
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most → matter → districts
What to watch: NC-01, AL-02, TN-09, TX-15
Anti-trans politics stopped working.
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politics → watch → TX-15
This is a complicated topic to spin; both LGBTQ rights groups and more cautious Democratic strategists are trying to set themselves up for it.
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groups → spin → it
“I hope that the headline coming out of November 4 is that equality voters won and anti-trans ads lost,” Kelly Robinson, the president of the Human Rights Campaign, told reporters on Monday.
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Robinson → hope → Monday
Robinson wants that to be proven by victories for candidates who followed her group’s playbook, of responding to GOP attacks on a candidate’s gender voting record by answering them and pivoting.
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who → want → them
A small group of Democrats, like Kaptur, have used the language that activists find offensive; the HRC is ready to point to those defeats as evidence that using a conservative frame won’t win votes.
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using → use → votes
What to watch: TX-SEN and OH-SEN for the HRC’s playbook working; OH-09 for a more critical approach paying off with swing voters.
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playbook → watch → voters
[Insert 2028 Candidate] was the strongest surrogate.
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Candidate → insert → ?
There’ll be fast post-midterm calculations of which Democrats and Republicans endorsed, and campaigned for, the most winners in congressional races.
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Democrats → endorse → races
The model for taking a scorecard into a presidential primary comes from Richard Nixon, who refurbished his reputation by campaigning across the country for Republicans in 1966 and got some credit for a good GOP year.
But every would-be president has approached this differently.
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president → take → this
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., has endorsed scores of candidates, some of them extreme longshots.
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some → endorse → them
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
