Four weeks from today, Americans will go to the polls and set the country’s course for the next two years.
asserted
Americans → go → years
Heads up to Republicans: things are shifting.
asserted
things → shift → Republicans
The liberal media is positively giddy over polls showing Republicans lagging in key Senate races, and others showing the GOP likely to lose the House.
asserted
GOP → show → House
But are their happy forecasts of a blue wave likely to prove right?
asserted
forecasts → prove → wave
Maybe, but there are signs that voters are beginning to look at Democrat candidates more closely, and they don’t like what they see.
asserted
they → be → what
When long-time Democrat Debra Messing endorses Republican Bruce Blakeman for governor in New York State over incumbent Kathy Hochul, something is afoot.
asserted
something → endorse → Hochul
Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins, considered vulnerable by Democrats, now leads her opponent and Michigan Democrat candidate Abdul El-Sayed just lost the endorsement of an important union.
asserted
Sayed → consider → union
Meanwhile, in Minnesota, which went for Kamala Harris in 2024, candidate Michele Tafoya could become the first Republican senator from the state since 2009.
uncertain
Tafoya → go → 2009
For all they celebrate Donald Trump’s low approval ratings, the reality is that the Real Clear Polling averages put Democrats’ favorability at 39%, exactly tied with the president.
asserted
averages → celebrate → president
The media are also playing up worst-case scenarios in a determined effort to drive down Republican turnout and campaign funds.
asserted
media → play → turnout
It’s a clever strategy.
asserted
It → ’ → ?
If voters think their cause is lost, they may well stay home and decline to back local candidates.
uncertain
they → think → candidates
Note to voters: it’s far too early to reach that conclusion.
asserted
it → note → conclusion
Much can change between now and November.
asserted
Much → change → November
The polls are seemingly becoming less reliable with every election cycle and can also be easily manipulated.
asserted
polls → become → cycle
In a recent New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena survey of Maine that shows Collins in the lead, for instance, the surprised author writes it has "a sample that looks reasonably favorable to Democrats."
asserted
that → show → Democrats
Even the Washington Post admits in a recent piece, "There are reasons to suspect polls could be overestimating Democrats’ strength."
uncertain
polls → admit → strength
Meanwhile, there are signs that increased scrutiny may not bode well for the radical leftists running for senate seats in Michigan, in Maine, or elsewhere.
uncertain
scrutiny → be → Maine
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed recently lost the endorsement of the state’s firefighters union.
asserted
Sayed → lose → union
The head of that labor group claims it had always meant to remain neutral in the race, which also features Republican Mike Rogers, and that El-Sayed’s name on a list of endorsements was a clerical mistake.
uncertain
name → claim → endorsements
That account is disputed by at least one union official who says it was El-Sayed’s negative views of law enforcement that soured his organization.
asserted
that → dispute → organization
He told a local news outfit, "Abdul El-Sayed has …held positions within organizations that support defunding the police and abolishing a considerable portion of our prison system."
asserted
that → tell → system
CNN Politics confirmed that El-Sayed explicitly endorsed the anti-cop movement, stating in a 2020 interview, "We do need to defund the police."
asserted
We → confirm → police
Republicans, digging into El-Sayed’s past, are highlighting a tweet from the candidate saying, "The fact that cops kill Black folks so regularly tells us who society considers part of the ’public’ & from whom they are to be kept safe.
asserted
they → dig → whom
Its not just a few bad cops — it’s an entire SYSTEM of white supremacy."
asserted
it → it → supremacy
El-Sayed likely hoped to keep those offensive past remarks hidden, but the days of erasing history are long gone.
asserted
days → hop → history
El-Sayed is also tagged with campaigning with Hasan Piker, the infamous anti-Israel influencer who claimed America "deserved 9/11."
asserted
America → tag → 9/11
That cannot sit well with most voters.
asserted
That → sit → voters
The Michigan race is a toss-up; Real Clear Polling shows recent surveys have El-Sayed one or two points ahead of Rogers, within the margin of error.
asserted
surveys → show → error
In Maine, which went for Kamala Harris by 7 points in 2024, Democratic former state Senator Troy Jackson is struggling in his bid to unseat long-serving Republican Collins.
asserted
Jackson → go → Collins
Democrats considered this race a prime pick-up opportunity — the only state won by Harris that had a GOP senator running for reelection.
asserted
senator → consider → reelection
But, they initially chose unknown populist Graham Platner to be their candidate, despite revelations that he sported a Nazi tattoo, had voiced racist opinions online, was not actually a working-class oysterman but rather had received significant financial support from his well-off father, and was accused of infidelity.
asserted
he → choose → infidelity
It took credible charges of sexual assault to boot Platner from the race, leaving fill-in Jackson to carry on the campaign.
asserted
It → take → campaign
Voters are not ecstatic about Jackson, who lacks Platner’s charisma, and who is running an uninspired campaign.
asserted
who → lack → campaign
A recent New York Times poll showed Collins ahead by three points; the author of the survey, whose recent red state polls were more promising for Democrats, found it "hard to imagine how Democrats could seriously be competitive in Kansas if they can’t even win Maine."
uncertain
they → show → Maine
Hilariously, the Times writer concludes: "Ms. Collins may be leading for a simple reason: People like her better and think she would be a better senator."
uncertain
she → conclude → her
Democrats are banking on voters’ dislike for President Trump carrying their party to victory in November.
asserted
Trump → bank → November
To quote the Times, still puzzling over Collin’s favorability, "It also just seems inconsistent with Mr. Trump’s extraordinary unpopularity."
asserted
It → quote → unpopularity
But, despite the president’s exhortations to his base to pretend he’s on the ballot…he is not.
asserted
he → pretend → ballot
His poor polling may not matter to voters worried about Democrats’ antisemitism or the likelihood that a Democrat-run Congress would rush to reopen the border, block investigations into welfare fraud, reverse cuts to spending that have driven the federal workforce to the lowest level in 60 years, raise taxes, reinstitute the green energy anti-oil diktats of the Biden era, and undo the business-friendly policies that have boosted economic growth to rates not seen in decades (other than post-Covid.)
uncertain
that → matter → Covid
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
