Donald Trump has enjoyed very few foreign policy victories since returning to power.
asserted
Trump → enjoy → power
From failed wars to failed peace processes, his second term in office has been marked by one costly blunder on the world stage after another.
asserted
term → fail → another
In Latin America, though, the US president has a different story to tell.
asserted
president → have → story
His administration’s national security strategy outlined how the US wanted to “restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere”.
asserted
US → outline → Hemisphere
It was a brazen document, laying out how his government would interfere in the political life of countries it considered part of its sphere of influence, rewarding governments and movements that are “broadly aligned with our principles and strategy”.
asserted
that → lay → principles
To this end, Trump bailed out Argentina to the tune of $40bn and threatened to withdraw the funding if President Javier Milei’s party lost the midterm elections.
asserted
party → bail → elections
In Colombia, he repeatedly bullied and threatened the leftwing president, Gustavo Petro, hitting him with personal sanctions and accusing him of being an “illegal drug leader”.
asserted
he → bully → him
And most dramatically, he invaded Venezuela and kidnapped its president.
asserted
he → invade → president
The day after Nicolás Maduro was brought to the US, the state department posted a picture of Trump above the slogan “This is OUR hemisphere”.
asserted
This → bring → slogan
Over the past 18 months, seven rightwing or far-right candidates have won presidential elections across Latin America.
asserted
candidates → win → America
In most of them, Trump openly backed the winning candidate.
asserted
Trump → back → candidate
“We’re doing very well in South America,” Trump said last month.
asserted
Trump → do → America
“Lots of people that I got elected.”
This weekend, he will be hoping to add the greatest prize of all: Brazil, South America’s biggest country and its largest economy.
asserted
he → elect → all
If he wins, Trump wins – and the hemisphere really will be his.
asserted
hemisphere → win → ?
The White House has not simply been watching the election from afar.
asserted
House → watch → election
Since Trump returned to power in January 2025, administration officials and Maga-world allies have been doing what they can to damage Lula and boost the Bolsonaros.
asserted
they → return → Bolsonaros
Initially, the aim of the support was to keep Jair Bolsonaro out of jail.
asserted
aim → keep → jail
Like Trump, he had not accepted defeat at the ballot box when he lost in the 2022 general election.
asserted
he → accept → election
Like Trump, his supporters stormed government buildings.
asserted
supporters → storm → buildings
But there were two crucial differences in Brazil – the seriousness of Bolsonaro’s attempt to hold on to power, and the determination of Brazilians that he should be held to account.
asserted
he → be → account
Investigators uncovered a sprawling conspiracy led by Bolsonaro and seven of his closest allies to keep him in power.
asserted
Investigators → uncover → power
It included an astonishing plot to kill Lula and his running mate, as well as a supreme court judge.
asserted
It → include → Lula
A draft decree had been written that would overturn the result.
asserted
that → write → result
The military would step in and ensure Bolosnaro returned to power.
asserted
Bolosnaro → step → power
But the plot failed and Bolsonaro and allies, including his defence minister and the navy chief, were arrested and put on trial.
asserted
Bolsonaro → fail → trial
In response, Trump threatened in July 2025 to impose a 50% tariff on all imports from Brazil, arguing the case against Bolsonaro was a “witch hunt”.
asserted
case → threaten → Bolsonaro
This blatant attempt at interfering in the judicial procedure of another country backfired.
asserted
attempt → interfere → country
Lula made clear he wouldn’t bow to US pressure, the trial went ahead and Bolsonaro was found guilty and sentenced to 27 years in prison.
asserted
Bolsonaro → make → prison
Lula also received a bump in the polls after standing up to Trump.
asserted
Lula → receive → Trump
In July, as the election campaign was kicking into gear, Trump tried his tariff trick again, imposing a new 25% rate on some Brazilian goods.
asserted
Trump → kick → goods
The state department then tried to dispatch two officials to Brazil to investigate “electoral integrity” – Brazil denied them visas, accusing the officials of coming to “meddle in Brazil’s elections”.
asserted
Brazil → try → elections
In the final weeks of the campaign, Lula has leaned into those accusations.
asserted
Lula → lean → accusations
A recent advert accused Flávio Bolsonaro of being “Trump’s candidate” and said the US president wants “to colonise Brazil, take our riches, steal our future and leave us in the dust”.
asserted
president → accuse → dust
What remains unclear is whether the White House’s strategy in Brazil is working.
uncertain
strategy → remain → Brazil
“Some in Brazil joke that Lula’s most effective surrogate is Trump,” Brian Winter, editor in chief of Americas Quarterly, told me.
asserted
Winter → joke → me
Indeed, while Latin American countries have undoubtedly moved to the right in the past 18 months, US interference, despite Trump’s boasts, has arguably had little direct impact.
asserted
interference → move → impact
In Peru and Chile, the Trump-aligned candidates were careful not to seek his endorsement for fear it would cause more trouble than it was worth.
asserted
it → align → trouble
In Bolivia, the leftwing Mas government was responsible for its own downfall, winning just 3.16% in last year’s election after 20 years of increasingly chaotic rule.
asserted
government → win → rule
The biggest reason countries have moved to the right has nothing to do with the US and everything to do with safety and security at home.
asserted
countries → move → home
Organised crime gangs, many of them linked to drug trafficking, are increasing in power.
asserted
many → link → power
…and 20 more, not listed.
The Aporia
