Democrats' advantage is clear with less than a month to go in the midterm elections
President Trump was elected in 2024, in large measure, with a mandate to bring down prices.
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Trump → go → prices
But that hasn't happened.
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that → happen → ?
Instead, Trump is facing record-low approval ratings, and voters are blaming him for costs that have continued to rise since he took office this second time around.
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he → face → office
As a result, Republicans are likely to pay the price at the ballot box next month.
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Republicans → pay → box
One month out from Election Day, the electoral landscape has shifted even more so in Democrats' direction.
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landscape → shift → direction
They are favored to win the House, albeit with a fairly narrow majority.
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They → favor → majority
The Cook Political Report forecasts a five-to-15-seat net gain for Democrats at this point.
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Report → forecast → point
That would give them in the range of 220 to 230 seats come January.
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That → give → seats
(218 is needed for a majority.)
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218 → need → majority
The Senate has shifted more dramatically over the last several months.
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Senate → shift → months
Six seats have moved more in Democrats' direction since June in comparing Cook's ratings from then to now.
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seats → move → ratings
When the cycle first started, the Senate was a long shot for Democrats.
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Senate → start → Democrats
Trump has just a 37% approval rating, according to an average of the polls.
uncertain
Trump → have → polls
That's tied for the lowest pre-midterm approval in the last half century.
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That → tie → century
Back then, Iraq was spiraling into civil war, and Republicans lost both the House and Senate.
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Republicans → spiral → House
Trump is also facing a historic intensity of opposition; 53% in the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll said they strongly disapprove of the job the president is doing, the highest ever recorded in the survey.
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president → face → survey
That's not a great sign for Republicans with Trump insisting that the midterm elections be about him.
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elections → insist → him
They usually lose about two dozen seats in the House and four in the Senate.
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They → lose → Senate
There are multiple reasons Democratic gains might be limited, including mid-decade redistricting helping to insulate Republicans, fewer competitive-to-potentially competitive House seats, with most in districts Trump won in 2024, Republicans' campaign spending edge and the unpopularity of the Democratic Party.
uncertain
Trump → be → Party
That said, the headwinds the GOP is facing are very real.
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GOP → say → ?
Republicans have lost their edge on the economy
Economic issues continue to rate as the top problem and most important issue facing the country.
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issues → lose → country
Most presidents get more blame and credit than they deserve for the economy, but the war with Iran and Trump's tariffs were choices that have directly led to increased costs on many goods and energy.
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that → get → goods
The economy is increasingly bifurcated with the wealthy doing well and regular people struggling.
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people → bifurcate → ?
Wealthy Americans are seeing increases in their wealth and stock portfolios, which are dominated by AI companies.
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which → see → companies
Inflation is outpacing wages, meaning people's paychecks aren't taking them as far.
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paychecks → outpace → them
There isn't a lot of turnover in the labor market, so if someone doesn't have a job or is looking to change, it's not an easy thing to do.
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it → be → job
Plus, many are turning against AI.
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many → turn → AI
In many places, it's driving up utility costs and, along with the rising national debt, is making borrowing more difficult.
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borrowing → drive → debt
All of that is coming at a time when gas prices have skyrocketed because of the Iran war, and interest rates are creeping higher.
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rates → come → war
In trying to tame inflation, the Federal Reserve hiked rates this fall.
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Reserve → try → rates
That makes it more expensive to borrow money and harder to pay for things like houses and cars.
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it → make → houses
The blame for that sort of thing often gets pointed directly at the White House and the party in power, and right now, that's Trump and Republicans.
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that → point → power
An AP/NORC poll released last week, for example, found that 65% said higher-than-usual prices are more because of Trump's policies than factors outside of his control.
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prices → release → control
Just 26% said they approved of the job he's doing on the economy.
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he → say → economy
An NBC News poll from September found that for only the second time in the Trump era, respondents said they trusted Democrats more than Republicans on the economy.
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they → find → economy
The only other time Democrats led on that question was in 2018 – the last midterm year when Trump was president.
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Trump → lead → 2018
Democrats won 42 seats and control of the House then.
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Democrats → win → House
Add the widely negative views of the economy to the administration's immigration enforcement tactics, discretionary domestic cuts, the slashing of regulations and the government workforce, and it's all firing up Democrats.
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it → add → Democrats
An opposition party enthusiastic to vote is a major warning sign for the president's party, especially in a midterm year.
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party → vote → year
History is not on the side of the president's party in midterm elections
In 18 of the 20 midterms since World War II, the president's party has lost House seats.
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party → lose → seats
…and 22 more, not listed.
The Aporia
