The most valuable education I received for becoming a political editor was growing up in Florida.
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I → receive → Florida
During the entirety of the 18 years I lived there, it was a purple state that voted for Barack Obama twice, and while I would not say my community was diverse, the spectrum of political ideology was vast.
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spectrum → live → ideology
I had a close friend who kept a life-sized cutout of George W Bush in her bedroom, and another who helped organize Amnesty International fundraisers against landmines.
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who → have → landmines
When the state turned deeply Republican in 2016, and remained that way, I continued to harbor a suspicion that it wasn’t the whole story.
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it → turn → suspicion
Even so, nothing could prepare me for the sheer surprise when Angie Nixon – the state legislator who joined the Democratic Socialists of America running against Alex Vindman, a centrist with national name recognition – won the Democratic primary for Senate in Florida.
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who → prepare → Florida
That shock has continued in the months after, as we see the Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly running neck-and-neck with Republican Byron Donalds, who seemed like a shoo-in just weeks ago.
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who → continue → in
And while Nixon is polling behind her Republican opponent, Ashley Moody, the race is much closer than anyone following Florida politics expected.
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anyone → poll → politics
So much so that the senior progressive senator Bernie Sanders has newly poured millions of dollars from his campaign funds into the state, and the popular congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez went to campaign with Nixon last month
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congresswoman → pour → Nixon
This trend is not limited to Florida.
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trend → limit → Florida
Democrats are overperforming in several Republican-held areas and states across the country, whether it’s Kansas, where a Democratic Senate candidate newly has the edge, or Iowa, where both the governor’s seat and congressional districts could flip.
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seat → overperforme → edge
In deep red Texas the focus has been on the Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, but more recently the party’s candidate for governor, Gina Hinojosa, has turned heads, too.
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candidate → turn → heads
Around the country, voters seem eager to wield their political power at a time when Donald Trump sees historic lows in his approval rating.
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Trump → seem → rating
The deep dissatisfaction Americans have with the current government is coming into sharp relief as we get closer to election day.
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we → have → day
Our reporters have heard the frustration at gas stations, at schools and at rallies.
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reporters → hear → rallies
People are fed up with the status quo and looking for a way out, even if, as is true in Kansas, it means choosing a party that hasn’t won the seat in almost a hundred years.
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that → feed → years
It doesn’t help that Republicans have chosen a number of openly corrupt and problematic candidates, like Roger Marshall who is running for Senate in Kansas, a doctor who sued thousands of patients, or Texas’s Ken Paxton, a state attorney general with a long record of personal and financial scandal.
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who → help → scandal
This can all be true at this current moment, but there is still a longevity question that both parties will need to answer in the coming years.
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parties → be → years
Midterm elections almost always serve as a check on the White House, but neither party has turned that momentum into long-term gains.
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party → serve → gains
In fact, many surveys show that both the Republican and Democratic parties are deeply unpopular.
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parties → show → fact
The upcoming election seems to be far more reliant on specific candidates in specific places with the exact right message for their voters – whether that means inviting Barack Obama to rally, or avoiding Kamala Harris altogether.
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that → seem → Harris
Even if there is a “blue wave” in November, it will require much more work to sustain enthusiasm through the presidential election in 2028 with a unifying message.
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it → be → message
With just under four weeks left to go, it remains to be seen whether the Democratic advantage holds, and how decisive a victory the party has if it does.
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it → leave → victory
But as a Floridian, I’m reminded by this election that although Americans might be polarized and stratified in filter bubbles, we are still exceedingly capable of making ourselves heard.
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ourselves → remind → bubbles
The US politics team is hosting a series of reader Q&As leading up to the midterms.
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team → host → midterms
Our next live conversation will be on 15 October 2026 at 12pm EDT, with a panel of our business, labor and consumer rights reporters discussing how the US economy could shape midterm election results.
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economy → discuss → results
Quoted
Here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy.
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Canada → quote → Michigan
We need to end this tariff war now.
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We → need → war
It’s a sign of the times when several high-profile Republican candidates are speaking in direct opposition to Donald Trump.
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candidates → ’ → Trump
While the entire top of this newsletter was focused on Democrats performing well in Trumpland, it’s important to note that there are places where Republicans have surprised people too.
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Republicans → focus → people
One of those is Minnesota, where my colleague Rachel Leingang has extensively covered state races.
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Leingang → cover → races
While the Democratic Senate candidate, Peggy Flanagan, is still holding the lead, some have noticed that Republican Michelle Tafoya is making gains in the otherwise Democratic state.
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Tafoya → hold → state
Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, is positioning herself as conservative with some asterisks, such as supporting some abortion rights and criticizing Trump’s actions in the Iran war.
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Tafoya → position → war
It’s notable that national Republicans haven’t invested in her race.
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Republicans → ’ → race
Minnesota has seen deep political turmoil in the past few years, from the federal immigration enforcement raids that killed two American citizens to the murder of a beloved state leader.
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that → see → leader
It is also one of the targets of the Trump administration, which capitalized on a recent statewide fraud investigation.
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which → capitalize → investigation
While indicators suggest Flanagan will hold on to the vote, we’ll be watching what impact rural Republican voters have in the state.
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voters → suggest → state
The Aporia
