Claims extracted
15
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 15 hedged
("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans right
expected in commentary, which argues a position · beta estimate
Publisher signals
not measured
these signals count newsroom corrections;
Commentary has none to count
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
The first official episode of Still Counting is out!
asserted
episode → count → ?
Clare, Galen, and I discussed the most competitive Senate races, the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention, Trump’s standing within the Republican coalition, and how the political mood has changed over the past year.
asserted
mood → discuss → year
I also chatted about why our Senate forecast has moved just a hair in the Republican direction over the past few weeks.
asserted
forecast → chat → weeks
It’s mostly that the generic ballot among likely voters has shifted from D +8.1 to D +7.6 since forecast launch.
asserted
ballot → ’ → launch
That type of movement in the generic ballot is not a big deal unto itself, but probabilistic forecasts are particularly sensitive when they’re near 50/50, as our Senate forecast is.
asserted
forecast → ’re → 50/50
(Good polls for Democrats in Maine and Michigan yesterday offset some of the recent movement.)
asserted
polls → offset → movement
I didn’t discuss this on the podcast, but another factor is that the way the model uses expert ratings.
asserted
model → discuss → ratings
They’re currently slightly helping Democrats in the House but Republicans in the Senate — that’s probably a good subject for a future Model Talk.
asserted
that → help → Talk
You can watch the first episode of Sill Counting above.
asserted
You → watch → Counting
For those who still prefer to listen to podcasts — I’m one of you! — follow us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
asserted
I → prefer → Podcasts
We’ve gotten a warm reception so far, which we deeply appreciate, but reviews, comments, likes and subscribes are always great.
asserted
reviews → get → which
New episodes of Still Counting will drop weekly, late Wednesday afternoon or early evening, with occasional bonus episodes and emergency pods.
asserted
episodes → count → episodes
And if you want to subscribe to Silver Bulletin while you’re at it, that link is below.
asserted
link → want → it
We’ve been publishing a lot lately, including relaunching our NFL forecast.
asserted
We → publish → forecast
Finally done with model work for a few months1, I’m hoping to get around to some of the items that slid down my to-do list, including some commentary on recent developments in AI.
asserted
that → do → AI
The Aporia
